Corona virus

Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The Blobster said:
We are an island, close the fucking borders now, why wait until its rampant !
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Too late. Once it is seeded it transmits like wildfire. We are now in mitigation mode. Meaning that we try to lower the transmission rate to a level that lowers the incidence of extreme cases to within resources limits, so that we don't get the tragic triage choices who suffer yet survive and those that suffer and don't.

The numbers I saw a week or more ago indicate that the transmission rate is 1-to-8 or worse, versus 1-2 for the flu. Basically C19 transmits as the cube of the flu or worse. I presume the numbers have been refined since then, but I have not seen any published.

In Italy they are chasing the shock front of an explosion and they're unlikely to get in front of this thing. Restrictions on travel and congregation are the only means available to lower the effective transmission rate, but at this point they may be futile within Italy.

For example, in my case I work from home. My exposure is to my immediate family and a few third party whenever I see them. But it's a lot like second hand smoke. My vulnerability is indirect through my immediate family and their network of exposure. I have no control over this. The four young grandchildren are bug factories at the best of times. They are remarkably resilient but potential transmitters nonetheless.

For people that commute through metro-centers it's like walking through a minefield. I am planing to attend a special small group reunion in Brooklyn in a couple of weeks. Ordinarily, I would train into Grand Central in Manhattan then take the metro to Brooklyn. Now, if I go, I am driving in and driving out - a real pain, but it eliminates the minefield.

What I have not heard clearly is what C19 actually does in this sense ... excluding the cases of compromise, is it just like a bad case of the flu, or is it much more intense. Or put another way, for normally healthy individuals, what is the incidence of complication.
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
NY State has just implemented a containment zone around New Rochelle, which is 20 miles or so NE of NYC. Some nonsense about a 1 mile radius around a synagogue!?! This is apparently the epicenter of the state's outbreak. It will be interesting to see what impact this has ... in time ... or too late.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
IMG_20200310_183235.png
With other words, Germany, France, Spain, USA, Switzerland and the UK will be Italy in a couple of weeks. I'd add Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.

Here in Denmark the number of infected jumped from 90 yesterday to 262 today. I reckon that in next week we'll have something like 1.600 infected, and in two weeks 5.000.

Today, Denmark had the highest % jump of all countries in the world.
 
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Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack ... great chart. Illustrates the trajectory really well, and clearly differentiates Japan from the rest. Japan locked down almost as soon as they had cases and the impact of that decision is remarkable considering their population density.
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Still no national policy in the USA .... not surprising considering. But local authorities are taking the initiative. Indian Wells tennis tournament has been cancelled following declaration from the local County. One incident and they called time-out.

The Riverside County Public Health Department has declared a public health emergency for the Coachella Valley after a confirmed case of coronavirus (COVID-19) locally. As a result, the 2020 BNP Paribas Open will not take place at this time due to concerns surrounding the coronavirus and the safety of the participants and attendees at the event.
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CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
Yankee_Jack said:
@CroJack ... great chart. Illustrates the trajectory really well, and clearly differentiates Japan from the rest. Japan locked down almost as soon as they had cases and the impact of that decision is remarkable considering their population density.
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The problem with Japan is that they are not testing the population enough. I fear we'll see a major outbreak there.

IMG_20200310_201328.jpg
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
Italy is doing a lot to increase the number of ICUs, and that's a good thing.

An Italian professor talking about the impact of the Covid-19 on the Italian health care system:

 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
The number of new cases in Denmark has exploded. In 36 hours from 90 to 420. Most of all countries in the world. Denmark has now more infected per capita than China.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
I was wrong. Qatar beats us. In the past 24 hours the number of the infected there has risen from 24 to 242.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
The Danish PM Mette Frederiksen is the first European PM to admit that she was wrong to not take radical measures three weeks ago.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
"The rapid spread of coronavirus around the world could have been substantially curtailed if the broad swath of measures China brought in to control the outbreak were introduced just weeks earlier, researchers say.

Sophisticated modelling of the outbreak suggests that China had 114,325 cases by the end of February 2020, a figure that would have been 67 times higher without interventions such as early detection, isolation of the infected, and travel restrictions.

But if the interventions could have been brought in a week earlier, 66% fewer people would have been infected, the analysis found. The same measures brought in three weeks earlier could have reduced cases by 95%."

Research finds huge impact of interventions on spread of Covid-19
 
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