Borini
Key Player
And the government will pay me for doing it !!!I arrived in work this morning ...was told don't take your coat off, and was sent back home for 12 weeks isolation.
As soon as the weather is better I can cuprinol my deck and my shed
Corona virus
- Thread starter CroJack
- Start date
The Blobster
Prediction Champ
Glad to hear you are not working. I was concerned for you with the number of staff in that place !
Kerang soon then bro ?
Kerang soon then bro ?
There'll probably be a lot of paid DIY's in the coming weeks, most will be glad to get back to work from the (clerk of the works) wife.And the government will pay me for doing it !!!
CroJack
Key Player
Italy deaths up by 475, biggest jump anywhere in a single day. Their health care system has collapsed.
There are 28.710 registered active cases in Italy right now, the real number of infected is somewhere between 300.000 - 600.000.
How come our governments are so stupid? If we, ordinary people, were able to predict what was going to happen...
There are 28.710 registered active cases in Italy right now, the real number of infected is somewhere between 300.000 - 600.000.
How come our governments are so stupid? If we, ordinary people, were able to predict what was going to happen...
CroJack
Key Player
More good news:
- it's so quiet everywhere
- no pollution
- people spend more time with their kids
- people wash their hands
- more sustainable economies in future
- people are realising how fragile we are
- people are realising that global problems require global cooperation and solidarity
- when this is over, and just like after the WWII, people will value their lives more than money - at least the next twenty years will be very different
- it's so quiet everywhere
- no pollution
- people spend more time with their kids
- people wash their hands
- more sustainable economies in future
- people are realising how fragile we are
- people are realising that global problems require global cooperation and solidarity
- when this is over, and just like after the WWII, people will value their lives more than money - at least the next twenty years will be very different
Except there might be some profiteering going on. I check the price of heating oil daily even when I don't need any in order to take advantage of any dip in price. I frequently miss out though because a minimum order is 500 litres which my tank capacity won't always accept as it's too full.
Anyway, take a look at these prices in March. The 5th £212 6th £212 7th £212 then dropped to its lowest point last Monday and Tuesday of £202. But yesterday it shot up to £227 whilst today it's £261 !!!!!!!! THIS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PRICE OF BRENT CRUDE DROPPED BY UP TO 13.75% TO $24.76 A BARREL, ITS LOWEST SINCE 2003 !!
Okay, I know all about supply and demand but there's more than an adequate supply, so how come the huge rise in price in a single day????? As it happens, I don't need oil right now but some folk do and many of them just can't afford this steep increase. And it's bad enough having to stay at home without being uncomfortably cold whilst you're at it. It's plain disgusting.
CroJack
Key Player
An excellent article in Guardian.
Unfortunatelly, it's not only the UK government that has been asleep for too long, the whole world, apart from Taiwan, has waited too long. The only thing I disagree with the author of this article is the mortality rate - it will be higher than 1%.
"Medical and scientific advisers to the UK government ignored Chinese scientists' warnings. For unknown reasons they waited. And watched."
"After weeks of inaction, the government announced a sudden U-turn on Monday, declaring that new modelling by scientists at Imperial College had convinced them to change their initial plans. Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."
"Indeed, it didn’t need this week’s predictions by Imperial College scientists to estimate the impact of the government’s complacent approach. Any numerate school student could make the calculation. With a mortality of 1% among 60% of a population of some 66 million people, the UK could expect almost 400,000 deaths. The huge wave of critically ill patients that would result from this strategy would quickly overwhelm the NHS."
"The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late."
"The UK is now taking the right actions to defeat this new epidemic. But we have lost valuable time. There will be deaths that were preventable. The system failed. I don’t know why. But, when we have suppressed this epidemic, when life returns to some semblance of normality, difficult questions will have to be asked and answered. Because we can’t afford to fail again. We may not have a second chance."
Read more here:
Scientists have been sounding the alarm on coronavirus for months. Why did Britain fail to act? | Richard Horton
Unfortunatelly, it's not only the UK government that has been asleep for too long, the whole world, apart from Taiwan, has waited too long. The only thing I disagree with the author of this article is the mortality rate - it will be higher than 1%.
"Medical and scientific advisers to the UK government ignored Chinese scientists' warnings. For unknown reasons they waited. And watched."
"After weeks of inaction, the government announced a sudden U-turn on Monday, declaring that new modelling by scientists at Imperial College had convinced them to change their initial plans. Many journalists, led by the BBC, reported that “the science had changed” and so the government had responded accordingly. But this interpretation of events is wrong. The science has been the same since January. What changed is that government advisers at last understood what had really taken place in China."
"Indeed, it didn’t need this week’s predictions by Imperial College scientists to estimate the impact of the government’s complacent approach. Any numerate school student could make the calculation. With a mortality of 1% among 60% of a population of some 66 million people, the UK could expect almost 400,000 deaths. The huge wave of critically ill patients that would result from this strategy would quickly overwhelm the NHS."
"The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late."
"The UK is now taking the right actions to defeat this new epidemic. But we have lost valuable time. There will be deaths that were preventable. The system failed. I don’t know why. But, when we have suppressed this epidemic, when life returns to some semblance of normality, difficult questions will have to be asked and answered. Because we can’t afford to fail again. We may not have a second chance."
Read more here:
Scientists have been sounding the alarm on coronavirus for months. Why did Britain fail to act? | Richard Horton
Checked out the number of confirmed cases in the Cross Hands area (Hywel Dda Trust) today and it says there are 12 confirmed cases. But obviously there could be hundreds more unconfirmed as yet. @jackodiamonds tells me his partner has been recalled from her stint as a GP to work at the local hospital. Would you believe that many of the staff there have to work without masks because other staff have been thieving them for family and friends!! She insisted that she had to have a mask so she had to traipse to the far reaches of the hospital where she was issued with just ONE when she needed a supply for the week as they have to be changed regularly. Add this sort of thing to the looters, and that is exactly what they are, who are ransacking supermarket shelves and it just confirms my low opinion of the human race.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
People that are buying out supermarkets actually have, even if subconsciously, done a calculation that informs them that the government is inept, that protocols being put in place are going to be too little too late, that this is going to last longer than a just a few weeks, that they don't trust leadership (what there is of it) ... and therefore have to act to the best of their ability for self-preservation.
Look at the gulf in the USA between the trivial obfuscation and utter nonsense emanating from the White House "leadership" (experts on disease control excepted) and the state governors and major city mayors that are staring at and dealing with a train wreck that is likely to exceed Italy's. State and local authorities are coordinating with their peers and acting on their own right. There is no national coordination at the Federal level. California (40 million people) just issued a public health order to restrict movement. Pennsylvania has just done the same. The North East Corridor states (NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, ME = umpteen tens of millions of people) will be next. NYC has been operating under restricted movement mostly voluntarily for a few days. There are formidable resources in the USA that are ready to move at a moment's notice but Trump is looking for somebody to blame, is idle in the head and in action. It's obscene.
Look at the gulf in the USA between the trivial obfuscation and utter nonsense emanating from the White House "leadership" (experts on disease control excepted) and the state governors and major city mayors that are staring at and dealing with a train wreck that is likely to exceed Italy's. State and local authorities are coordinating with their peers and acting on their own right. There is no national coordination at the Federal level. California (40 million people) just issued a public health order to restrict movement. Pennsylvania has just done the same. The North East Corridor states (NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, ME = umpteen tens of millions of people) will be next. NYC has been operating under restricted movement mostly voluntarily for a few days. There are formidable resources in the USA that are ready to move at a moment's notice but Trump is looking for somebody to blame, is idle in the head and in action. It's obscene.
CroJack
Key Player
Here is how this virus can be eradicated and an epidemic prevented.
"Our experiment came to be by chance. The Italian authorities had a strong emotional reaction to news of the country’s first death – which was in Vò. The whole town was put into quarantine and every inhabitant was tested. The tests were processed by us at the University of Padua. It became clear that this was a unique epidemiological setting – and an application was put in to keep the town in lockdown and run a second round of tests after nine days.
In the first round of testing, 89 people tested positive. In the second round, the number had dropped to six, who remained in isolation. In this way, we managed to eradicate coronavirus from Vò, achieving a 100% recovery rate for those previously infected while recording no further cases of transmission.
We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic."
They haven't had a single case of coronavirus since the beginning of March, and they are in the middle of the outbreak in Lombardy. Fascinating.
Read more here:
In one Italian town, we showed mass testing could eradicate the coronavirus | Andrea Crisanti and Antonio Cassone
"Our experiment came to be by chance. The Italian authorities had a strong emotional reaction to news of the country’s first death – which was in Vò. The whole town was put into quarantine and every inhabitant was tested. The tests were processed by us at the University of Padua. It became clear that this was a unique epidemiological setting – and an application was put in to keep the town in lockdown and run a second round of tests after nine days.
In the first round of testing, 89 people tested positive. In the second round, the number had dropped to six, who remained in isolation. In this way, we managed to eradicate coronavirus from Vò, achieving a 100% recovery rate for those previously infected while recording no further cases of transmission.
We made an interesting finding: at the time the first symptomatic case was diagnosed, a significant proportion of the population, about 3%, had already been infected – yet most of them were completely asymptomatic. Our study established a valuable principle: testing of all citizens, whether or not they have symptoms, provides a way to control this pandemic."
They haven't had a single case of coronavirus since the beginning of March, and they are in the middle of the outbreak in Lombardy. Fascinating.
Read more here:
In one Italian town, we showed mass testing could eradicate the coronavirus | Andrea Crisanti and Antonio Cassone
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CroJack
Key Player
Agreed. I'd argue that hoarding is a rational behaviour. Look, if you have supplies for a couple of months, you don't need to go out. Going out every day increases your chances to get infected. And another thing. If we get an epidemic, be sure that the chains of distribution will be disrupted.
Of course, such behaviour is socially unacceptable and selfish, but it's rational.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Bottom-line ... you can't manage what you can't measure. If you don't know where the boundary lies then how the hell do you know where to draw a defensive line.
CroJack
Key Player
Yes. And the effective strategy should have been:
1. Shut the borders to prevent import of the new carriers.
2. Test and qarantine all who are returning to the country from abroad.
3. Shut down the local comunities to prevent the spread within the country. This is equaly important as shutting the borders.
4. Test all the people within the local community and qarantine those who are infected.
All of this should have been done a month ago. I am well aware that 1. - 4. requires a huge effort, but what is the alternative? A chaos that we have now?
We all know that all civilised countries have plans ready in case of epidemics. What to do and how to fight them. Where are they?
CroJack
Key Player
Fake news. It has been impossible to buy hand sanitisers in Denmark for almost a month.
CroJack
Key Player
As you all know on March 12 Denmark shut its borders, implemented strict lockdown and social distancing. 800.000 public employees were sent home, and the Danish government advised the private businesses to do the same. The Danish CDC was against the plans, but the Danish government told them to f*** off. Danmark has been one of the first countries in Europe to close the borders.
Well, it seems the strategy works.
Since March 12 Denmark has been testing only people who have moderate and severe symptoms. The same approach is used in many countries, mostly because of the test units and test kits shortage. Nothing wrong with that - people with moderate and severe symptoms are important. The good news is that the number of people who have either moderate or severe symptoms has been falling since March 19, and the decrease in numbers has been significant. Also, Denmark has managed to stop the exponential growth.
Sweden and the UK have chosen different approaches, and the difference between these three countries can be seen here:
The UK has been pretty late with everything.
Since March 13, Covid-19 cases in the UK have increased from 9 to 100 per million inhabitants. In Denmark from 143 to 259 per million.
The good news is that the UK still has fewer cases per million people than Denmark, so we can hope that the new measures in Britain will soon have the samme effect.
Well, it seems the strategy works.
Since March 12 Denmark has been testing only people who have moderate and severe symptoms. The same approach is used in many countries, mostly because of the test units and test kits shortage. Nothing wrong with that - people with moderate and severe symptoms are important. The good news is that the number of people who have either moderate or severe symptoms has been falling since March 19, and the decrease in numbers has been significant. Also, Denmark has managed to stop the exponential growth.
Sweden and the UK have chosen different approaches, and the difference between these three countries can be seen here:
The UK has been pretty late with everything.
Since March 13, Covid-19 cases in the UK have increased from 9 to 100 per million inhabitants. In Denmark from 143 to 259 per million.
The good news is that the UK still has fewer cases per million people than Denmark, so we can hope that the new measures in Britain will soon have the samme effect.