JackBarSteward
Key Player
Many occasions I've wished I was a binman.
Corona virus
- Thread starter CroJack
- Start date
Yes, @JackBarSteward I WAS specifically referring to the Westminster civil servants. Bin men and the like are doing a damn fine and necessary job especially during these trying times.
CroJack
Key Player
CroJack
Key Player
I've made a map with the latest development in infections in Europe.
Green: countries where the number of new cases are decreasing significantly every day (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Switzerland, Serbia, Czech Republic) and countries where the epidemic is now totally under control (Norway, Denmark, Island, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Greece, Malta, Gibraltar. Luxemburg, Cyprus, Monaco).
Red: countries where the number of new cases is constant or increasing ( UK, Sweden, Poland, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova). Only in Russia there is an exponential growth of new cases.
Green: countries where the number of new cases are decreasing significantly every day (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Ireland, Switzerland, Serbia, Czech Republic) and countries where the epidemic is now totally under control (Norway, Denmark, Island, Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, Greece, Malta, Gibraltar. Luxemburg, Cyprus, Monaco).
Red: countries where the number of new cases is constant or increasing ( UK, Sweden, Poland, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova). Only in Russia there is an exponential growth of new cases.
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It's hard to believe that the UK, an island, now has the highest death rate in Europe, and yet airports are STILL letting in thousands of unchecked passengers. There are some in this government who will, when this is over have blood on their hands. When countries all around us were locking down we were giving permission to open horse race meetings, pop concerts, etc. attended by hundreds of thousands. Then try to con the British people with their PPE figures ie. gloves being counted singularly,where 2M is actually 1M. This entire government needs to be held to account when this epidemic is over, and god only knows what the final death total will be then. There are millions now unemployed that are getting no assistance from the government, yet they award themselves £thousands to buy office equipment to work from home. Not to mention the extra work load they have put on the NHS.
Call her what you like, but we would never have been in this situation under Thatcher.
Call her what you like, but we would never have been in this situation under Thatcher.
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CroJack
Key Player
Denmark is opening restaurants, coffee shops, big shopping centres, and all other shops on Monday. Football and other sports will be allowed behind closed doors.
Left column: number of new cases per day
Middle column: number of tests
Right column: % of infected/tests per day
Under 2.000 active cases:
Left column: number of new cases per day
Middle column: number of tests
Right column: % of infected/tests per day
Under 2.000 active cases:
Behindthegoal
Key Player
If only Downing Street had listened to you, CJ.
Ive been really depressed for a few days now reading about various scientific missteps during this pandemic.
when you’re over eighty you don’t want to fritter away a significant percentage of the rest of one‘s life
Ive been really depressed for a few days now reading about various scientific missteps during this pandemic.
when you’re over eighty you don’t want to fritter away a significant percentage of the rest of one‘s life
CroJack
Key Player
Certainly food for thought and, without doubt, our Government could and should have done better - particularly with regard to people coming into the country from abroad carrying God knows what germs and bugs with them.
BUT, neither Boris nor his government are responsible for the strategy and tactics employed by our country. Sure they executed the strategy but on the ADVICE provided to them by our so-called medical 'experts' who, quite obviously, got it completely wrong - AND NOT FOR THE FIRST TIME! Boris isn't a medical man nor does he profess to be, so he and his government followed the strategy that their scientists and medical specialists recommended. THEY are the people mainly responsible and they are the ones who should be held accountable in the post pandemic inquest that will follow.
One of the first up in the firing line should, imo, be Professor Neil Ferguson, so-called 'virus expert', who has a track record of abysmal failure in his predictions concerning virus attacks. He and his team at Imperial College, London have CONSISTENTLY got it badly wrong:
Like the apocalyptic foot-and-mouth forecasts used to justify the mass cattle cull of 2001.
His prediction in 2002 that 150,000 of us could die of BSE (Mad Cow Disease) when in fact the number eventually totalled 177.
When he said in 2005 that 200 MILLION worldwide could die of bird flu. Actual number? 455!!
Or when his modelling predicted 65,000 UK swine flu deaths in 2009. Actual number? 457!!
And let's not forget that hallowed institution, Public Health England, who assured us that THE RISK TO CARE HOMES WAS NEGLIGIBLE!!
ANY Government must heed its experts and be guided by them. Can you imagine the uproar if they failed to do that? It just so happens, to our misfortune, that our experts seem totally unfit for purpose and how in God's name they are still in jobs utterly baffles me.
BUT, neither Boris nor his government are responsible for the strategy and tactics employed by our country. Sure they executed the strategy but on the ADVICE provided to them by our so-called medical 'experts' who, quite obviously, got it completely wrong - AND NOT FOR THE FIRST TIME! Boris isn't a medical man nor does he profess to be, so he and his government followed the strategy that their scientists and medical specialists recommended. THEY are the people mainly responsible and they are the ones who should be held accountable in the post pandemic inquest that will follow.
One of the first up in the firing line should, imo, be Professor Neil Ferguson, so-called 'virus expert', who has a track record of abysmal failure in his predictions concerning virus attacks. He and his team at Imperial College, London have CONSISTENTLY got it badly wrong:
Like the apocalyptic foot-and-mouth forecasts used to justify the mass cattle cull of 2001.
His prediction in 2002 that 150,000 of us could die of BSE (Mad Cow Disease) when in fact the number eventually totalled 177.
When he said in 2005 that 200 MILLION worldwide could die of bird flu. Actual number? 455!!
Or when his modelling predicted 65,000 UK swine flu deaths in 2009. Actual number? 457!!
And let's not forget that hallowed institution, Public Health England, who assured us that THE RISK TO CARE HOMES WAS NEGLIGIBLE!!
ANY Government must heed its experts and be guided by them. Can you imagine the uproar if they failed to do that? It just so happens, to our misfortune, that our experts seem totally unfit for purpose and how in God's name they are still in jobs utterly baffles me.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Models are predictions of outcomes that suggest prudent course of actions to avert those outcomes. When the model predicts X, the suggested prudent course of actions are taken, and the result Y is less than X, then the conclusion is that the actions worked not that the model was wrong.
Unfortunately in the case of Covid-19 the actions have patently NOT worked.
The Blobster
Prediction Champ
And we are still letting people into the country without even a temperature text !
I think that boils down to the politicians in power at the time. Don't think we could have had a bigger shower of morons handling this virus situation.Unfortunately in the case of Covid-19 the actions have patently NOT worked.
CroJack
Key Player
Hmmm. It was Ferguson prediction of 250.000 Covid deaths that forced the British government to abandon the herd immunity policy and put the country into lockdown.
It has to be pointed out that the science is divided on this matter. There are basically two models:
1. The herd immmunity model argues that's it's better to allow the virus to spread more less freely, so the vast majority of population gets immunity. The logic behind this is that we won't be able to find vaccine in near future, and that the second wave of the disease could be more deadly. This strategy has two extremes: a) Bolsonaro (Brasil), Lukashenko (Belarus), early Trump, and early Johnson, and b) Swedish mitigation model with very few restrictions, but still some restrictions (no mass gatherings, social distancing etc.).
2. The suppression model (New Zealand, Australia, Denmark, Norway, China, Taiwan, now the British government as well, and many other countries) argues that the virus can be contained, if not completely but so much that the epidemic can be controled without too many deaths, and without health care system being overwhelmed. They are all aware that the second wave could come, but they argue if it comes they will have been better prepared to fight it (stockpiling of PPE, people will already have been 'trained' in social distancing, and if we are lucky we will have had either a vaccine or medicine).
I must admit that I prefer the suppression model for a short period of time (a couple of months) and than relaxation of the strict measures, just like we did Denmark. Though, I have a sympathy for the Swedish model (protect the vulnerable and let the healthy population acquire herd immunity). Actually, Denmark is going to follow the Swedish model now. The whole society simply can't live in isolation for more than a couple of months, and more people will die from poverty etc. than from this virus.
The US and Britain were too late in acting properly, so now they have both evils: a lot of deaths and a lockdown. The former could have been avoided had Trump and Johnson used common sense. Why common sense? Well, when China puts a city of 11 m people in a complete lockdown then something must be wrong.
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Yankee_Jack
Key Player
When you start off with a herd immunity approach, but your leader forgets that he could become part of the herd, gets sick ... oh shit ... and then does a 180, what do you expect. You have to buy in to the recommended actions for day 1.Unfortunately in the case of Covid-19 the actions have patently NOT worked.
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