Corona virus

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
Her business lost 12 million last year.
If that was my wife's business I would have pulled the plug, it'sall vanity so she can say she is a fashion designer,
So far she has proved she is a rubbish singer
And a rubbish designer.
Billionaire Richard Branson is another who's applied for a cash bale out.
Arsenal's Mesit Ozil has refused point blank to take a 12.5% pay cut of his £350,000 weekly wage.
I hope these people are remembered when this epidemic is over..
 

CroJack

Key Player
I think the problem is establishing there are still no infected.
Yes, but not impossible. Massive testing for the virus, on one hand, and massive testing for antibodies, on the other, is a solution. And if you don't have any hospitalisations anymore, it means you don't have the virus circulating in the population.

In my opinion, developing an accurate five minute test will be a major breaktrough, not a vaccine. Six years ago my father who had been vaccinated against flu got infected with a virus. The virus caused pneumonia together with accute respiratory distress syndrom, and he died. The trouble is that during years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating influenza viruses, it is possible that there is little or no benefit from flu vaccination. In general, current flu vaccines tend to work better against influenza B and influenza A(H1N1) viruses and offer lower protection against influenza A(H3N2) viruses. And the flu vaccines don't give you protection against RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).

"Even during years when the flu vaccine match is good, the benefits of flu vaccination will vary, depending on various factors like the characteristics of the person being vaccinated, what influenza viruses are circulating that season and even, potentially, which type of flu vaccine was used." - CDC.

"There are many other viruses besides flu viruses that can result in flu-like illness (also known as influenza-like illness or “ILI”) that spread during the flu season. These non-flu viruses include rhinovirus (one cause of the “common cold”) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which is the most common cause of severe respiratory illness in young children, and a major cause of severe respiratory illness in adults aged 65 years and older." - CDC

RSV is the most common cause of pneumonia, not the flu. Among adults over 65, RSV leads to 177,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths annually in the US. There is no vaccine to prevent RSV infection yet, but scientists are working hard to develop one.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The problem is that there is no definitive data as to the true case scale, no means to test a large enough sample of the population to get meaningful numbers and the erratic swings we are seeing here in the data.

For example (In New York City, 1 in 7 Expectant Mothers Test Positive for Coronavirus ), in the cohort of women being admitted to deliver their babies (NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center began testing all admitted on or after March 22) over 15% were found to test positive with only 1% or so of those tested being symptomatic. It could be reasonably argued that this cohort would normally and naturally be behaviorally adverse to risk and therefore represent the lower bounds of the infected population. Projecting 15% into NYC's 8.5 million population yields over 1.275 million cases with 1.19 million being asymptomatic. That's a large pool of possible infection that would burst onto the scene on the relaxation of current restrictions. NYC is a nexus of a large commuter population with many making the daily commute from as far away as 80 miles. Relaxing restrictions in NYC without properly quantifying the scale of infection could unleash a tsuanmi of infection into the city, the lower counties of the state and neighboring states of New Jersey and Connecticut.

Within Connecticut, we are recently seeing erratic daily numbers. For example ... day 1 = March 20.

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Testing has increased in volume and hospitalizations have come down; good indicators. But new case and deaths are still moving upwards and the data is erratic.

Not sure what happened yesterday other than a new rapid testing center came on-line in the southern part of the state. As you can see the number of cases bolted up. The number of deaths also bolted up and this may be due to a new scrutiny of nursing homes, the higher mortality rates there, and data not being previously collected.

In other words, we're still running blind without a guide dog. The deeper we dig, the uglier it looks.

And, in the world of those drunk on Trump, red state governors and those that whipsaw daily on the mutterings of the moron are loosening the limited restrictions they had imposed ... Mother Nature may yet be a mother and forcefully demonstrate the principals of natural selection.

In the meat processing industry, check out States Work to Keep Meat Plants Open Despite Virus Outbreaks ).
Meat processing plants are becoming massive virus incubators. It started in South Dakota and its spreading. It is important to understand that these plants are close to the raw material not the markets. They are located in places that are naturally isolating in states with small dispersed populations. One would think this would be a natural barrier. This week, the Tyson's plant in Iowa is not respecting requests of the local Sheriff and County civic leaders to shutdown - they don't have the legal authority to impose a shutdown and the state's governor is refusing to intervene (a red state governor). It is the dominant employment in the county with dozens of infections incubating therein. The locals are scared that this is going to to explode into the general population of the county unless the plant shuts down and workers are quarantined.

And, as infections spread across the meat processing industry in the mid-west, food security is going to become a major problem. Last week there was a 20% reduction in the slaughtering of chickens, beef and pigs in South Dakota. Scale this is across the mid-west food industrial farming states and its going to become a real problem.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Testing has increased in volume and hospitalizations have come down; good indicators. But new case and deaths are still moving upwards and the data is erratic.
The number of hospitalised people is the most important metrics, not deaths, because people will still be dying after the last case of infection has been confirmed. We know that there is a dark number of infected with either no or mild symptoms out there. With an increased number of tests we'll probably see a paradox - more confirmed cases and fewer hospitalisations.

Projecting 15% into NYC's 8.5 million population yields over 1.275 million cases with 1.19 million being asymptomatic.
These so called dark numbers could be even higher, and if they were, then this is a good news - the mortality rate is much lower than feared.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
These so called dark numbers could be even higher, and if they were, then this is a good news - the mortality rate is much lower than feared.
But the dark pool of infection that can blow back onto those with risk greater risk and vulnerability, hitherto sheltering and limiting their exposure, is cause for concern. This is like a large pool of water - ordinarily the wave will dissipate as it moves out from the epicenter and ultimately lose all its energy. But, the pool is surrounded by rigid walls, so the wave will not dissipate to infinity but bounce back. It is in the bounce back that people may be more exposed and vulnerables will be caught in the secondary and perhaps tertiary waves.
 

CroJack

Key Player
For the countries like Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, France, UK and Sweden the overall mortality rate in the first four months has surpassed the mortality rate from 2017 influenza season by large numbers.
I have to correct myself. Mortality rate in the above mentioned countries have surpassed the numbers from March/April 2017 and March/April 2018, but have not surpassed the number of excess deaths in 2016/17 and 2017/18 flu seasons.

I didn't know this:

"There were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017/18 - the highest recorded since winter 1975/76, figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

The number of excess winter deaths observed in 2017/18 was higher than all years since the 1975/76 winter period, when there were 58,100 extra deaths. The last peak was in 2014/15, when there were 43,850 excess deaths - which was the worst figure since the millennium.

Compared with recent years, excess winter deaths observed in 2017/18 were 45.1 per cent higher than the 2016/17 winter and more than double that seen in 2015/16.

Last year's flu jab protected just one in 10 pensioners.

The worst protection was among over 65s - the age group most vulnerable to flu - with effectiveness of 10.1 per cent and none at all against some key strains, an evaluation by Public Health England shows. Figures among younger adults were little better at 12.2 per cent, with rates of 26.9 per cent among children, the provisional end-of-season estimates show.

Caroline Abrahams, Age UK's Charity Director, said the new figures were “distressing” with more than nine in 10 excess deaths involving pensioners."
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
What I'm hearing over here is leading me to believe that what pharma does at the best of times leaves something to be desired. Vaccine's are being rushed out the door with a target 12 months or less when they typically take 4 years.

The FDA is permitting over 90 developers of anti-body tests to self-validate and self-certify quality and fitness for purpose. I guess lessons have not been learned from the FAA and Boeing, where Boeing self-certified the updated systems on the 737 Max that caused two aircraft to crash. The FDA and CDC are apparently going to validate a sample of the tests being developed.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
We have a load of wankers running our country, the f#cking lot of them should be sacked. Here are some factual incidence.
The government say there was a delay in PPE from Turkey, which should have arrived on Sunday, blaming Turkey, the Turkish government publicly rejected this claim out here. Now it's been admitted by the UK that the order wasn't placed until Sunday night due to some e/mail mix up on the uk side. Turkey immediately put officials to work early Monday morning to get the shipment processed. Think it arrived in Oxford last night.
The Times reports this morning that the death toll is far in excess of the government claims, data not included in the care home sector has recently increased 5 fold. The Times say the real figures are very close to 41,000. If true this puts us No2 in the world behind the USA
Some care home staff requiring health checks have been asked to travel to Sheffield,a round trip time of 5 hours for some. This Test doesn't require a pile of machinery just a simple throat swab FFS. Nothing could be more mobile.
If it wasn't so serious it's comical how the three that give the daily briefing skirt around answering direct questions,as you've probably seen, they answer via a video link, and when pushed into a corner they just turn the link off and say "next question".
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Politicians of any ilk are self-serving, lying arseholes whose sole aim in life is to feather their own nest at anyone's expense. 'Anyone' usually means the tax paying public. However, it is the civil servants and administrators who cause most of the problems we see. They are a protected species, almost impossible to sack, so they can fuck things up with impunity and do so on a regular basis.

Private businesses have to be well run, efficient and competitive to thrive because they are fighting for their share of the market and their very existence. If they don't deliver, another company will. But government administrators have no such problems. They can drop bollock after bollock without ever worrying about consequences because that's how it's always been. The day that their jobs depend on their actions and standard of performance, will see our country begin to flourish. Unfortunately, that day will never dawn.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
Politicians of any ilk are self-serving, lying arseholes whose sole aim in life is to feather their own nest at anyone's expense. 'Anyone' usually means the tax paying public. However, it is the civil servants and administrators who cause most of the problems we see. They are a protected species, almost impossible to sack, so they can fuck things up with impunity and do so on a regular basis.

Private businesses have to be well run, efficient and competitive to thrive because they are fighting for their share of the market and their very existence. If they don't deliver, another company will. But government administrators have no such problems. They can drop bollock after bollock without ever worrying about consequences because that's how it's always been. The day that their jobs depend on their actions and standard of performance, will see our country begin to flourish. Unfortunately, that day will never dawn.
British MP's have been given an extra £10K in order to help them work from home during the virus crisis.They already have a budget of £25K to assist in the running of their constituency offices.
The document says the £10K is to help support the setting up of working from home arrangements. ie. the purchase of laptops,printers,etc. and assist with electricity,heating costs,plus phone bills etc.
I think this is scandalous, are we expected to believe that MP;s don't already have laptops, printers etc. at home. Monies they have awarded themselves that never gets questioned. They themselves are the countries biggest vultures. When all this is over the general public needs to take a long hard look at the politicians they voted in, because in this crisis they haven't been worth a toss.I don't mean a change of party but a hard look at your local MP,question him on various topics etc. before giving him /her your vote.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Denmark today (5.8 m population, 2441 active cases, 324 hospitalised, 80 in intensive care, 68 in respirator):

Danmark idag.jpg
Danmark idag2.jpg

Let's see how it goes.

April 21: 4389 people tested, 93 ny cases (which is 2,1 % of all tested)

Infectious pressure Rt is 0,6.
 
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ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
I suppose they must be doing something right when you compare their virus figures to ours. But there's no way I'd be mingling in public like that.
 

CroJack

Key Player
I suppose they must be doing something right when you compare their virus figures to ours. But there's no way I'd be mingling in public like that.
They did nothing different than what you are doing right now, just earlier. I bet we'll be seeing the same pictures from Britain in June.

And Denmark is not alone. Australia, New Zealand, and many European countries are gradually going back to normal life. Bundesliga football is back in early May, though behind close doors.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
The general consensus from experts is that social distancing will continue well into next year,and even longer depending on vaccine progress. even then they say we will have to adapt ourselves to a new type of normal life for quite a while.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
However, it is the civil servants and administrators who cause most of the problems we see. They are a protected species, almost impossible to sack, so they can fuck things up with impunity and do so on a regular basis.
But government administrators have no such problems. They can drop bollock after bollock without ever worrying about consequences because that's how it's always been.
Seems that others in the know agree with me - as does Rod Liddle in his excellent article today in the Sun, headlined:

REAL OPPOSITION TO GOVERNMENT? NOT LABOUR, IT'S THE CIVIL SERVICE!

For three long years our civil servants did everything they possibly could to prevent the UK from leaving the European Union. In other words, to thwart the will of the people - and the policies of our democratically elected Government.......

Civil service insiders report that the organisation was, almost to a man, openly hostile to Brexit....... Civil servants leaked whenever they could do to the Press. Not least the Foreign Press. And now, in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, guess what? Yup, they're still doing it. Britain's top diplomat Sir Simon McDonald, one of the highest people in the public sector, has tried to shaft the Government over Brexit and the virus, He said that the Government took a 'political decision' not to join an EU effort to buy PPE and ventilators. This was WHOLLY UNTRUE, as the Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, angrily made clear. McDonald - STILL SOMEHOW IN A JOB - was forced to back down. Two things. First the EU scheme has spectacularly failed to deliver ANYTHING. Indeed, the EU is coming apart at the seams over this virus. And second, the invitation to join the scheme was sent, by those EU genii, to the WRONG ADDRESS! [The EU administrators are even more stupid than ours. And that takes some doing!]

It is becoming more apparent with every day that passes that the civil service is the biggest impediment to the UK reforming itself. It is hostile to the Government, to the people - and deeply hostile to change of any kind. IT IS A VAST CONGREGATION OF TIME-SERVING BUREAUCRATS DEDICATED ONLY TO SAVING THEIR OWN JOBS [My caps]. Even now, red tape may be stifling our efforts to deal with the coronavirus.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO DISCOVER, ONCE THIS PANDEMIC HAS RECEDED, WHAT PART THE CIVIL SERVICE PLAYED IN THE UKs FAILURE TO CARRY OUT TESTING FOR THE VIRUS RIGHT FROM THE START. AND THE FAILURE TO BRING IN VITAL EQUIPMENT. Government ministers carry the can for these sorts of failures, of course. BUT IT IS THE CIVIL SERVICE CHARGED WITH ENACTING THE DECISIONS. [My caps].

I wonder how many ventilators have failed to arrive here because of some bureaucratic hitch? I wonder what would have happened if the civil service, rather than the military, were charged with building those Nightingale hospitals? They might just about be ready by the end of the century!

It was clear, when this Government came to office, that the real opposition wasn't the ragged hounds and trots on the Labour benches, but FROM THE VERY PEOPLE PAID TO ENABLE THE GOVERNMENT - THE CIVIL SERVICE.

There needs to be a clear out from the top down. Because this battle - between civil servants and Government ministers - will continue long after the virus has been defeated. Their opposition to Government policy HAMPERS ALMOST EVERYTHING WE DO. That's no way to run a country.


Needless to say I'm in complete agreement with the above and we need our own 'Night of the Long Knives' to cut this cancer from our society.
 
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