Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Compromise, appeasement ... pick your evasive verb of choice ... it all points the same way: delaying a job to tomorrow.
Putin is a little man that has gone from being irritatingly tedious, to living out a delusion. Sound familiar. Now, there's a job to get done. Do it today for cost / effort A, or defer until tomorrow for cost / effort B, where B >>> A. History repeats, deja vous.
In 1936 my old man was 11 years old. Compromise, appeasement ... nobody wanted the dirty job of the moment ... moved the day of reckoning, it deferred the job. In 1943, my old man turned 18 and was drafted into RAF. Reporting a day after his 18th birthday he was immediately put on report for being a day late. He was trained as a radio op and gunner. He flew on bombers into Germany. But his active war began at least 2 may be 3 years earlier when he was a dispatch rider for civil defense carrying dispatches via motor cycle. And of course, before that from the age of 14 he was seeking cover as Swansea's industry, rail yards and town center were flattened. The job that didn't get done came seeking one and all.
There's a job to do. It's not going away. It can be done now on the "cheap" or done later at much greater cost, waste, effort and risk. We can be shy now or be brave later, but the need to be brave never ever goes away or gets cheaper only more expensive.
Today, if we're strategically smart ... there are two ways to get the job done. We can do it directly from the outside, or we can get it done by surrogates on the inside. Russian oligarchs are the personally motivated surrogate of choice.
Russian oligarchs are having their foreign assets frozen. Oligarchs don't make money (or much money) domestically, they make money through international trade and investment - that's fucked for now.
The oligarchs in Russia are at the top of the power pyramid and Putin is in practical terms their puppet. While everything is peaceful, Putin keeps the plebes in-line, and the oligarchs get to blissfully make money and do their thing. Somehow, someway, Putin has convinced them that he can have some fun on the cheap and under estimated the shit show that he's walked into. He's been allowed or has snuck off the reservation. The oligarchs have their own self-interest first and foremost. They do not have the power to defeat NATO. They do have the resources to decapitate Putin, put in a new puppet, and return order within Russia. They have the disinformation resources to turn a withdrawal from Ukraine into a national victory especially while body bags are minimal and defeats at the skirmish through battle level can be kept out of the national news. And, in any case, they don't really care about the national mood, along as their wealth can be reclaimed. Easily achieved at these early stages by full withdrawal, the obligatory diplomatic statements of regret blah, blah, blah, suitable sacrificial offerings (Putin and Lavrov), making financial submissions to Ukraine to clean up the mess (pennies on the dollar). It would permit assets to free up much sooner than never, the Rubel has the chance to recover its losses, and the foreign trade and investment that the oligarchs depend on can be restored.
By all accounts, Ukraine's military have technologically superior equipment in the hands of competent operators. What they lack in numbers, they are making up for in terms of superior execution in isolated sorties. It may not be enough to stop the Russian onslaught, but it's enough to draw blood, and delay or stall an advance, then operate forceful resistance under occupation. Note, Russian tanks have not been pushed to the front line yet ... not until the threat of US anti-tank Javelins have been nullified. Ukraine air force have been achieving success in one-on-one engagements. All males 18 to 60 are being denied exit from country and are being required to mobilize. It's going to get bloody and the outcome is not yet conclusive.
It is in the best interests of the Russian oligarchs to put their own interest first. There are two ways to win a conflict: (1) deliver the winning blow, or (2) let the opponent defeat itself. We could do the first, but it will take time for various legislative bodies to grant offensive authority, or a misstep by Putin where he stupidly does something that triggers an Article 5 response. The latter is our most viable immediate option and Russian oligarchs are the latent snake in the grass.
Putin is a little man that has gone from being irritatingly tedious, to living out a delusion. Sound familiar. Now, there's a job to get done. Do it today for cost / effort A, or defer until tomorrow for cost / effort B, where B >>> A. History repeats, deja vous.
In 1936 my old man was 11 years old. Compromise, appeasement ... nobody wanted the dirty job of the moment ... moved the day of reckoning, it deferred the job. In 1943, my old man turned 18 and was drafted into RAF. Reporting a day after his 18th birthday he was immediately put on report for being a day late. He was trained as a radio op and gunner. He flew on bombers into Germany. But his active war began at least 2 may be 3 years earlier when he was a dispatch rider for civil defense carrying dispatches via motor cycle. And of course, before that from the age of 14 he was seeking cover as Swansea's industry, rail yards and town center were flattened. The job that didn't get done came seeking one and all.
There's a job to do. It's not going away. It can be done now on the "cheap" or done later at much greater cost, waste, effort and risk. We can be shy now or be brave later, but the need to be brave never ever goes away or gets cheaper only more expensive.
Today, if we're strategically smart ... there are two ways to get the job done. We can do it directly from the outside, or we can get it done by surrogates on the inside. Russian oligarchs are the personally motivated surrogate of choice.
Russian oligarchs are having their foreign assets frozen. Oligarchs don't make money (or much money) domestically, they make money through international trade and investment - that's fucked for now.
The oligarchs in Russia are at the top of the power pyramid and Putin is in practical terms their puppet. While everything is peaceful, Putin keeps the plebes in-line, and the oligarchs get to blissfully make money and do their thing. Somehow, someway, Putin has convinced them that he can have some fun on the cheap and under estimated the shit show that he's walked into. He's been allowed or has snuck off the reservation. The oligarchs have their own self-interest first and foremost. They do not have the power to defeat NATO. They do have the resources to decapitate Putin, put in a new puppet, and return order within Russia. They have the disinformation resources to turn a withdrawal from Ukraine into a national victory especially while body bags are minimal and defeats at the skirmish through battle level can be kept out of the national news. And, in any case, they don't really care about the national mood, along as their wealth can be reclaimed. Easily achieved at these early stages by full withdrawal, the obligatory diplomatic statements of regret blah, blah, blah, suitable sacrificial offerings (Putin and Lavrov), making financial submissions to Ukraine to clean up the mess (pennies on the dollar). It would permit assets to free up much sooner than never, the Rubel has the chance to recover its losses, and the foreign trade and investment that the oligarchs depend on can be restored.
By all accounts, Ukraine's military have technologically superior equipment in the hands of competent operators. What they lack in numbers, they are making up for in terms of superior execution in isolated sorties. It may not be enough to stop the Russian onslaught, but it's enough to draw blood, and delay or stall an advance, then operate forceful resistance under occupation. Note, Russian tanks have not been pushed to the front line yet ... not until the threat of US anti-tank Javelins have been nullified. Ukraine air force have been achieving success in one-on-one engagements. All males 18 to 60 are being denied exit from country and are being required to mobilize. It's going to get bloody and the outcome is not yet conclusive.
It is in the best interests of the Russian oligarchs to put their own interest first. There are two ways to win a conflict: (1) deliver the winning blow, or (2) let the opponent defeat itself. We could do the first, but it will take time for various legislative bodies to grant offensive authority, or a misstep by Putin where he stupidly does something that triggers an Article 5 response. The latter is our most viable immediate option and Russian oligarchs are the latent snake in the grass.
Last edited:
