Our Championship Rivals

[Yankee_Jack]

I don't think the bookies are getting the odds correct. Their odds are being driven by betting patterns to spread their risk not necessarily the true probability that team A will get promoted.

Based on what we saw with Norwich, I see them falling away. They are much stronger than most teams and will accumulate points but have vulnerabilities. Brentford, based on their tighter 1.93-1 goals per game ratio is also vulnerable. We have a rock solid defense - if anything our weakness HAS been scoring goals - and with the addition of Hourihane our midfield have been scoring and and raised its game offensively. I expect to see our 2.33-1 goals per game ratio expanding. We may struggle to earn maximum points at home because teams will come and park the bus, realizing that they are unlikely to breach the defensive fortress. However, playing away from home, the home team will be more open and aggressive, even though there isn't a fan in sight urging them on, and we will have greater success.

 

[CroJack]

It' going to be an interesting game between Reading and Brentford on Wednesday. A draw would be perfect for us.

 

[Behindthegoal]

Please explain how the ratios 193-1 and 2.33-1 are calculated, preferably in layman’s terms.

 

[Victoria Swan]

I fail to see it's a forgone conclusion that Brentford will win the league.

I have little to add to @CroJack's analysis that rebuffs this and points to Brentford's claim to the title (and who would be crazy enough to argue with @CroJack 's analyses anyway!). However, I will add a couple of things.

First, while Brentford do have defensive frailties compared to us they recognised this and brought in Winston Reid from West Ham in January to shore up their defense.

Second, as a team they have shown resilience by replacing two major striker losses in off season and bringing in a killer striker in Ivan Toney and to have not really missed a beat from their high quality performances as a team last season right into this season. Seems to me that this makes it less likely they are going to fall prey to a slump (such as Norwich's or Bournemouth's current slumps). In fact, I fear that we have not yet encountered a slump and think we do have the potential to slip into one.

Finally, they totally outplayed us in head to head competition this season. Every time I watch them play they look every bit the Championship title winners for this season whereas I don't think that (except for occasional one-off performances) for any of the other teams.

We have to be careful @Jackflash not to let our dislike of Frank cloud our judgement of his team. They are good and if I was forced to put money on who will win the title my head (not my heart) would put it on Brentford (the same as would, apparently, the betting world neutrals).

 

[Yankee_Jack]

Please explain how the ratios 193-1 and 2.33-1 are calculated, preferably in layman’s terms.

Take the GF / games played (52/27) and the GA / games played (27/27). This gives 1.93 and exactly 1.0 for Brentford. So they are winning games on average 1.93 - 1. Not exactly decisive - although recently they have beaten a few teams quite handily ... which gives pause for thought ... who were those teams, Wycombe for one made a big contribution to the GF.

For us the numbers come down to: 1.3 (35/27) and 0.56 (15/27). To compare with Brentford we normalize to the opposition's score of 1 by dividing both of our numbers by 0.56. This gives 2.33 - 1. A fatter margin than Brentford's. In fact we have a whole goal advantage over our opposition versus Brentford's 0.93.

Which is why I say: Brentford looks flash because they score a lot of goals (but they need to). We are flash because we deny goals and score more in comparison.

If we can keep our midfield healthy and put fitness into Morris and Arriola then we're looking good ... for me, better than Brentford.

 

[Jackflash]

I have little to add to @CroJack's analysis that rebuffs this and points to Brentford's claim to the title (and who would be crazy enough to argue with @CroJack 's analyses anyway!). However, I will add a couple of things.

First, while Brentford do have defensive frailties compared to us they recognised this and brought in Winston Reid from West Ham in January to shore up their defense.

Second, as a team they have shown resilience by replacing two major striker losses in off season and bringing in a killer striker in Ivan Toney and to have not really missed a beat from their high quality performances as a team last season right into this season. Seems to me that this makes it less likely they are going to fall prey to a slump (such as Norwich's or Bournemouth's current slumps). In fact, I fear that we have not yet encountered a slump and think we do have the potential to slip into one.

Finally, they totally outplayed us in head to head competition this season. Every time I watch them play they look every bit the Championship title winners for this season whereas I don't think that (except for occasional one-off performances) for any of the other teams.

We have to be careful @Jackflash not to let our dislike of Frank cloud our judgement of his team. They are good and if I was forced to put money on who will win the title my head (not my heart) would put it on Brentford (the same as would, apparently, the betting world neutrals).

I have never shown any resentment or animosity towards their manager Frank, his personality doesn't bother me in the least.
I just feel it's a bit unrealistic to pre-judge a teams outcome half way through a season. It's not as if they're top of the table with a ten point lead.

 

[Behindthegoal]

I see your workings @Yankee_Jack . I was confused because it’s not our style to score over 2 goals, only against Rotherham, I think.

 

[Victoria Swan]

I have never shown any resentment or animosity towards their manager Frank, his personality doesn't bother me in the least.
I just feel it's a bit unrealistic to pre-judge a teams outcome half way through a season. It's not as if they're top of the table with a ten point lead.

I agree. I wouldn't claim any certainty here. Just on the balance of probabilities (along with current and past performance) Brentford is, in my mind, easily the most likely team to finish top of the Championship.

 

[CroJack]

Great game between Reading and Brentford. It's 82 minute and it's still 1:1.

 

[CroJack]

Brentford scored in 85 minute.

 

[CroJack]

1:3

No doubt, Brentford are going to win the title.

 

[IanABS94]

Wouldn't mind a lack Blackburn equalizer tonight with PNE. Draw would be a nice result though we shouldn't be worried about teams around there.

 

[ivoralljack]

2-1 Preston which is better than Blackburn winning.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

No matter what happens tomorrow we are still 3rd with 2 games in hand

 

[IanABS94]

Hopefully these rescheduled ones come sooner rather than later. I'd rather not be playing catch up towards the final few games of the season where the pressure could be enormous.

 

[IanABS94]

Forest drew Bournemouth which is good for us.

 

[ivoralljack]

Forest drew Bournemouth which is good for us.

A few more results like that would be great.

 

[IanABS94]

Could use a Stoke win or draw.

All other results somewhat against us so far

 

[IanABS94]

Well in Milwall, though wish it was Stoke instead.

 

[Behindthegoal]

Barnsley scored at Brentford !