Must Watch Analysis

[CroJack]

Last season only Bournemouth, Fulham, WBA and Middlesbrough spent more money on new players than Swansea and we finished in 15th place. Do I feel sorry for Martin? Not at all.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2021&s_w=&leihe=1&intern=0&intern=1

This season it's Watford, Norwich, Hull, Sunderland, Sheff. United, Middlesbrough and Burnley, which means we should finish close to the play-off places.

https://www.transfermarkt.com/championship/transfers/wettbewerb/GB2/plus/?saison_id=2022&s_w=&leihe=1&intern=0&intern=1

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Of course I think our owners should invest more in the squad but it's a myth they have been actively undermining our managers in recent years.

 

[Victoria Swan]

I don't understand why MY opinion is in YOUR opinion"a strawman" and HIS opinion "a very thoughtful analysis"

Because, as I stated, "he has more objective evidence in his analysis than you have in yours. I'm not used to that from you @CroJack. Sorry, but just telling it like I see it in this instance."

 

[CroJack]

Because, as I stated, "he has more objective evidence in his analysis than you have in yours. I'm not used to that from you @CroJack. Sorry, but just telling it like I see it in this instance."

Mate, can you give me examples of this "more objective evidence in his analysis"?

 

[ivoralljack]

I'm just sitting back and enjoying this debate, guys. And thank you for respecting each other and keeping it civil. There are many forums where insults would have been traded by now and open warfare declared. Behaving like an adult isn't always easy when passionate viewpoints collide but, imho, the posters on here deserve the utmost respect for their conduct. Thank you again, gents.

 

[Victoria Swan]

I already did - the Opta Analysis (which you disagree with), the more cautious approach to declaring Cullen a Fox in the Box (i.e. awaiting more than five games performance), and his use of the "chance creating carries" stat for the current squad versus for Whittaker.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

Echoing @ivoralljack … to both @Victoria Swan and @CroJack

My read from this past week is basically four things: 1) Martin is standing on soft ground, not quick sand yet, but it could turn any moment or perhaps it has already but the execs are giving him rope - we are only a few points from playoffs so why spin money buying out is contract and being disruptive when there is still that possibility - time for Martin to show his chops and deliver. 2) from @Crojack’s recap it’s clear that Potter, Cooper and Martin have been backed as much as available finances and financial prudence would permit: 3) Martin’s misuse of our own resources and loanees especially this season has sullied the Club’s reputation with Prem clubs looking to loan out prospects - the only recent recalls I can recall have been under Martin; 4) there is a latency in process between locals and far away execs during the transfer window that handicaps fast execution and response to quickly shifting situations - clearly Winter is trusted with operational day to day but financial investments (transfers are asset purchases) are not.

ownership has a rigorous financial model and the discipline to stick to it. There is solid sympathy for operations but that would not lead them to be emotionally distracted and stray from the process. They expect smarter use to be made of resources on hand. As I have argued on a number of occasions, managers are too often measured in results and league position and not how much juice they squeeze out of resources at hand. This is why I have always been a staunch backer of Sousa, what he generated out of the hand he was dealt together with Monk’s disruption is massive, he missed out on the playoffs by a hair when we should have been relegated based on start of season goal difference expectations. Martin in contrast, versus Sousa and his predecessor, is a bust. Martin bleats about a young squad, but he chose to park Fulton all of last season, and over the past 12 years or so we have routinely had one of the younger squads in our league … I think Rogers’ prem league squad was pretty young too.

it’s time for Martin to deliver.The squad has blown hot and cold this season. If it wasn’t for the spell in October (?) when we were harvesting points like crazy, we would be in deep shit now. Everything reverts to the mean and so we have, it can be argued, but it can also be argued that the positive period was fortuitous; it still teases an opportunity. The Club have given Martin a player in Whittaker who has been on superb form. How does he utilize him. Martin bleats about courage and bravery, it’s time he demonstrates those attributes in himself. Does he immediately insert Whittaker and let the players play or does he put him on the bench and start Ntcham. Allen is out so Fulton drops deeper and the top midfield line has an open slot … is it going to be Whittaker, Cundle or Ntcham who starts. It’s a no brainer for me.

In our last season in the Prem, we started with a 4-0 loss at home to United. After the game, Mourhino basking in the result and display from his players, stated that you let the “wild horses run”. It’s time to apply common sense in resource utilization and let the players play.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

I will add one last comment. Regardless of how incensed we are about the scandal behind the scenes in the buyout - a scandal of old owners not the new as far as we can tell - the new guys do have a strategy, financially prudent and the discipline to stick to it. We may not like it but: their pockets are not as deep as we would wish; funds have been put into the club with loan to equity conversions that I think have been executed, which is a sign of faith and commitment. Oh were that it could be more, but it isn’t, and resource utilization is critical as it is in any business. Martin has delivered meekly with the resources available as a result of his experiment with his system instead of coaching a system congruent to the resources at hand. The Club has let this happen … perhaps based on financial discipline … Martin has been afforded far more failure rope than other clubs and execs would have allowed. No time like the present to get it done.

 

[jackodiamonds]

I understand that the board are reluctant to fire another manager, pay the compo, pay for a new one, endure the associated disruption etc while, as @Yankee_Jack said, the team are only a few points off the playoffs.

However, before today, the club had won (10) pretty much as many games as it had drawn (9) and lost (9), had an almost zero goal differential (+2), and was sitting 12th out of 24 teams. That is the epitome of middle-of-the-road, bang-average performance. This team is as good as it is bad, and this after a season and a half for Martin to implement his ideas. I just don't see "the process" (or the progress) Martin seems to be selling his tenure on.

With that in mind, I think it's only fair to say he is doing a good job if you assume this team's squad is significantly worse than bang average in this division, which it absolutely is not. @Yankee_Jack is right in saying Martin has not squeezed all he could out of the resources available - if anything, his squad is underperforming.

@CroJack thinks an average manager playing average tactics would have this squad in the top three. I'm not that optimistic, but I don't think an average manager playing average tactics would be doing much worse. A slightly better than average manager playing more contemporary tactics who was prepared to modify those tactics to suit his squad could put this team into the playoffs fairly comfortably.

To see real progress this season, the team needs to find consistency starting today, and for the rest of the season win far more often than it draws or loses. Can anyone see that happening?