Must Watch Analysis

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
This video was posted late today on YouTube. No idea who the guy is but he does a deep dive on our transfer window, the squad, Cullen and waxes poetic on Whittaker.

Plenty of data presented to support the arguments. Plenty of grist for @Crojack’s mill.

Enjoy.

 

Victoria Swan

Key Player
This is an excellent analysis by Ali Mathews, and contrary to how many on here lay the blame for our performance at the doorstep of Russell Martin. He makes a cogent case for Martin being undermined (just as Cooper and Potter were before him) and for us to be very concerned about losing Martin who will depart in a snit in the summer (just as Cooper and Potter did before him)! He pretty well convinced me.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Very interesting and I did enjoy. Not sure that I agree about Martin though but, as it's getting late, I'll expend on my thoughts tomorrow.
 

Victoria Swan

Key Player
Not sure that I agree about Martin though
Yes, one point in favour of you is that he makes a strong argument that what we are most lacking is a player who can dribble, take players on one-on-one and challenge defenses. He missed the point that Oko-Flex did exactly that but was hardly used by Martin and that Martin has not been keen on Whittaker although that is what he does as well. The other strike against Martin that he misses is the extent t which we have players sulking in the squad - pretty unusual to have so many unless there are shortcomings in the manager's man management.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@Victoria Swan ... Ali correctly identifies our lack of width, inability to attack defenders, etc, but as you say, he misses the stories behind Flex, Fulton, Fisher, Obafemi, Cullen and Pato. Similarly with Congreve who is willing to take players on but was never given a good shot at the start of the season.

Ali seems to think that Piroe is a better inside forward than #9, but frankly when you compare with Cooper and Fulton, not so much IMO. And he comments about Piroe only hitting 70% or thereabouts of his expected goals. I wonder what Cullen's numbers are.

His numbers on Whittaker were crazy. I had no idea that the lad was doing so well at Plymouth, no wonder he's upset. If he's not at least on the bench on Saturday it will be a great disservice to the Club and the player. The Whittaker situation actually speaks in the Club's favor, with numbers like those why wouldn't the Club call the player back ... any manager would be excited to add a player performing at that level to the squad ... but apparently not Martin. Time will tell.

The title of the Analysis ... "Russell Martin is being undermined..." ... is unjustified.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
I haven't watched the video yet but the title tells me the guy who made the video is totally deluded. If anyone is undermining Martin, then it's Martin himself.

And now I am going to watch the video.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
And here it is … he rallied his staff around him and went through a “vent” …. Whatever is or has gone on, push is coming to shove. Will he be gone in the summer?

 

jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
I agree with much Matthews says in the video, except for his defence of Martin. As @Yankee_Jack pointed out, there was no mention of Martin's clear mis-management of so many players. I'm not a fan of his possession-obsessed tactics as you all know, but tactics aside the biggest problem with Martin is what looks to be a divisive personality. Too many unhappy players in a squad that's already small.

Martin was dismissive of Whittaker after his recall, and certainly did not use the opportunity of a public presser to give the player hope or confidence. As @Victoria Swan pointed out, the board brought in Oko-Flex who solves so many problems on paper, but Martin didn't use him. Now he has MW offering the same. It's almost like the board know better than Martin what this team is lacking tactically, which is alarming.

I'm glad there were no incomings up front. I think Cullen and MW are excellent and should be given every minute available. Piroe is far better than he's showing. Patterson has the ability to be a game-changer. Martin has to learn how to manage people, not just possession statistics. You give a manager like this an endless stream of players, and he'll just keep casting them aside (for a loss of either money or face) until he finds personalities willing to act like loyal dogs, but look what that gets (Fisher, Sorinola, Darling). It's about time he steps up the job of managing the team he is paid to manage, not the team he wishes he could manage.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The Martin video is interesting in a number of respects; a lot of respects.

First, there’s mention of a just released video from ownership and the Trust …. Can’t find that anywhere.

second, is the command and power structure at the club. My take is: Levien-> (other shareholders … perhaps) -> Winter ….. Levien calls the shots for better or worse regarding every penny. Does he have his own team of football analysts state side that he confers with? Wouldn’t surprise me because there is apparently a lack of cohesion and situation appraisal and time sensitivity across the pond. Locally we are a unit, but the schism is apparent. This is going to impact contract management issues in the near term.

There is a Joe or Joel who was injured slightly in training and will miss a game or two. Audio wasn’t clear and last name was not given.

Martin references two sets of ACL injuries …. Benda is one. Who would the other be?
 

jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
Here's the Trust video with Jason Levien and Jake Silverstein


I believe it's Joe Allen who picked up the knock in training.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
In the Trust video, the breakdown in process was not discussed. Levien, Jake whoever, Kaplan are the trio making final deal decisions.
Apparently we over offered on some players and the player / agent decided not to go through with the deal.

over confident on Fisher 🙄

Apparently we were 0 for 8 on the players pursued and offered. Nobody admits the real reason why. Martin knows but prudently skirted around it. However, it seems to me that it wasn't a case of we did the best we could and were undone through no fault of our own, as Martin was clearly bent out of shape by it all.
 
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jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
Martin made it sound like the deals took too much time to go from the Swansea-based contingent through the Americans to a final decision. Levien and Silverstein make it sound like the only real problems were that targeted players chose other clubs (i.e. the players Swansea over-bid on), or that one of the other parties (player or club) pulled out even though Swansea had accepted the terms on their end. I can believe that, but business had to be conducted earlier to account for this type of thing, which Martin did point out.

They said at one point the number one striker target and number one right back target both went with other clubs, which makes me wonder why Swansea aren't as attractive a proposition. There could be many reasons - Swansea are not in the playoffs, the manager isn't an established name yet, the city is on the margins on the UK and might be too far away from friends and family and social life etc (which was stated as the case in one instance), another club offered better personal terms (although it was also stated that certain targets agreed personal terms, so Swansea can't have been too far off), the players in question had more friends on other teams who lobbied them to come their way instead, etc.

So the reason no business got done was:

1 - Swansea left it too late
2 - other parties chose to go in a different direction
both of which imply
3 - Swansea did not have enough targets in play

I don't think it's such a big deal. I'd have liked to have seen a goalkeeper come in, but because goalkeeper is a specialised position the team can use the emergency loan option for cover there. I've already said I'm satisfied with the strikers currently in the squad, so it's really just missing a right-back that's the biggest issue. If Martin persists with the more effective 4-3-1-2 / 4-4-2 diamond we've seen lately there's no reason Naughton can't play right back as he won't be required to cover as much ground as a wing back in the old, crappy 3-5-1-1 system. Not over-spending during a sellers market is no bad thing.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Agree with all that. The only reason we need a new RWB is because Martin prefers the 3+2. Naughton is still a capable RB. He and Allen are the most experienced players in the squad with plenty of Prem experience. I don’t understand the Lati over Naughton position. Lati gets skinned by a winger much too often.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
1. Is the lack of new arrivals a huge issue for the Swans?

No. Why? Because our clueless manager wanted to strengthen our attack, and not the defence. We don't lose our games because we can't score, we lose them because we concede too many. We have one of the poorest defences in the Championship.

There is an obvious fault on the managerial side - a suicidally high back-line played by the slow players who are mentally weak and can't concentrate for 90 minutes. The result of this brilliant idea is plenty of high quality chances and easy goals conceded.

Whilst we have to work too hard to break down opposition defences and the reason for this is our too slow progressing with the ball, the opposition have an open door when they attack our goal - plenty of space in between and behind our lines. When you add to this the lack of quality of the Swansea goalkeepers and defenders, then we have the picture.

So, no, Ogbene, Grant etc. wouldn't solve our problems because for Swansea it's impossible to score more than they can concede.

2. Do Swansea have a thin squad?

No. But Swansea do have a mishandled squad. Mishandled both by the club hierarchy and manager.

A) Discriminatory wages

Jamie Paterson, Joel Piroe, Michael Obafemi, Ryan Manning, Oli Cooper and Morgan Whittaker are paid less than Andrew Fisher, Harry Darling and the-last-ten-minutes-player Olivier Ntcham. Let's that sink in.

The players are petulant and sulking? You bet they are. When a club rewards mediocre players and forgets the real performers then Paterson's strike, Piroe's body-language, Obafemi's sulking, Manning's fuck-the-new-deal, and Whittaker's not-in-the-right-frame-of-mind suddenly makes sense.

B) Pushing the player out of the club, then pulling out of the deal, and then accusing the player of being petulant

After a good second half of last season Michael Obafemi was identified by the club hierarchy as one of the players who should be sold for a significant profit. They told him he would be sold and then they pulled out of the deal saying that Burnley didn't meet the valuation. You might say the club has every right to do what it did. Yes, the club has every right to sell its players, but there is a difference between receiving offers for a player and offering a player to the other clubs.

C) How can a manager who didn't want to use Morgan Whittaker, Liam Cullen and Armstrong Oko-Flex complain about a thin squad?

Benda had to wait a year to get another chance, Brandon Cooper never got a run of games, same with Jordon Garrick, Nathanael Ogbeta and Kyle Joseph.

3. Opta "analysts" don't know what they are talking about when it comes to expected goals

And that's why they can't explain what's going on at Swansea. "Swansea have the third lowest expected goals against" my ass. That's a load of bullshit. From the very beginning of this season Swansea have been one of the worst teams when it comes to the expected goals against. All well explained in my Championship Expected Goals & Points threads. I have always pointed out that Swansea give away a lot of high quality chances.

Here is the Expected goals table from the Round 18

Screenshot 2022-11-04 at 22.46.31.jpg
It's true we don't face many shots and chances, but when we do they are much more worth for the opposition then the average chances created in the Championship.

Though, since we changed to four at the back our xGoals Against numbers have improved.


4. An average manager with an average style of play would have Swansea lower in the league table

False. We would be in the top three right now.

5. Shot stopping ability of our keepers

Their stats could be better, but the number of goals we could blame them for is statistically insignificant compared to the number of goals conceded as a result of the managerial incompetency.

6. At centre-back position Swansea are in a good shape

False. Our centre-backs are not good enough for our style of football with a high back-line. They are simply too slow.

7. I agree with him on Manning, Latibeaudiere, Sorinola, Oli Cooper, Paterson, Grimes, Piroe...

He described pretty well their strengths and weaknesses.

8. Swansea don't have a fox in the box

False. We have Cullen.

9. Swansea don't have ball carriers (dribblers) who can take on opposition defenders

False. We have Paterson, Whittaker, Congreve and we had Oko-Flex. None of them used much this season if used at all.

10. Liam Cullen is maybe a solution up front instead of Obafemi

False. It's not maybe. Cullen is exactly what we need in the box.

11. Definitely agree with him on Whittaker

Whittaker has excellent stats in the League One this season and there is no reason why he wouldn't be able to reproduce such form in the Championship where he will be surrounded with Cooper, Piroe, Allen, Grimes, Fulton and Cullen.

12. Swansea are a good team that play a good system with a good manager

False. If we look at it optimistically then we can say Swansea are a half good team that play a half good system, and have a half good manager.

13. Swansea managers have not been backed by the owners like the managers at the other Championship clubs

False. In the past couple of seasons Swansea have been one of the Championship sides that spent most money on the new players. Just have a look at Transfermarkt's Championship transfer activities year by year.

The truth? Our managers have not been particularly good when it comes to transfers. Neither Potter, Cooper nor Martin.

14. It doesn't feel Swansea are building a squad here

True. And that's Martin's fault. He doesn't know the market, he doesn't know what makes a modern football player, and his vision of the team and the style of football is not the same as ours.

An ideal football player have to have: pace, physical strength, technical ability, footballing intelligence and strong mentality. It's extremely difficult to find such players even in the top leagues, but players who have got pace, physical strength and strong mentality CAN be found in the lower leagues. If National League side Wrexham can find such players, then why can't we?

I would argue that pace, physical strength and strong mentality are more important in modern Championship football than technical ability and footballing intelligence. If you can run fast and are physically strong you'll always be able to correct mistakes you make and recover the ball. You'll be able to press all over the pitch and constantly disrupt opposition build-up play. You'll win both your areal and ground duels, you'll be able to score from headers, you'll be able to create space for you and your players etc., etc.

If we analyse the players we've had in the last five years and use the above five attributes in our analysis, then it's easy to see what has been wrong with the Swansea recruitment. I guess that:

- less than 10% of our players have had pace
- less than 30% of our players have had physicality
- less than 30% of our players have had strong mentality
- less than 30% of our players have had technical ability
- less than 30% of our players have had footballing intelligence

How about a team of players where 100% of them have pace, physicality and strong mentality? Wouldn't that be a good start? And if you add to that an average technical ability, footballing intelligence and quick passing, then I think we would easily win this league.

15. Has Martin been undermined by our owners?

No. Have THEY forced him to sign Fisher, Darling, Sorinola etc.? No.
 
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ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Excellent summation, CJ, and, imo, says exactly how it is.

have pace, physicality and strong mentality?
I have always advocated these things as being essential attributes for any team that wants to be successful to have. It beggars belief that Martin doesn't seem to understand this. His player purchases and team selections confirms to me that he doesn't. This is why I've been constantly calling for a change of manager. If I can see it, if most of us can see it, why can't he? He has flaws that are ruinous to our hopes of any real progress.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack 👏👏👏. I'm not sure you can fit all that into a YouTube comment but you've just about nailed it.

And so, we wait to see the line-up on Sat and where we go from here. There's been two weeks of nothing but practice.
 

Victoria Swan

Key Player
@CroJack you've unfairly set Ali Mathews up with a series of strawmen. A few examples:
  1. An average manager with an average style of play would have Swansea lower in the league table - You stating "false" and asserting otherwise is not a cogent, evidence-based statement. It's your opinion against his opinion. I side with him in this case.
  2. What's the basis of you asserting (again) that Opta Analysts don't know what they're talking about? Their stats on expected goals against ring true for me. What's to stop me saying "CroJack's stats on expected goals are a crock?" You are just exchanging unproveable assertions.
  3. We have no idea on whether Cullen is our ongoing and reliable fox in the box until he is given a run of games (which he seems to be in the process of getting now). Perfectly reasonable for Ali Mathews to state "maybe" and certainly not worthy of you to yell "false" at him for this justifiably cautious statement.
  4. Swansea managers have not been backed by the owners - why do you think Potter and Cooper left and now we are seeing a potential repeat with Martin (although he is not a manager of their calibre). I find it hard to believe that you think Martin has been backed by the owners, unless it is so that you can disagree with Ali Mathews!
It is not so much that I disagree with your bottom line - that Martin should go - but rather that you are attacking a very thoughtful analysis by Ali Mathews largely on the basis of your assertions. Surprisingly (for you) he has more objective evidence in his analysis than you have in yours. I'm not used to that from you @CroJack. Sorry, but just telling it like I see it in this instance.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
An average manager with an average style of play would have Swansea lower in the league table - You stating "false" and asserting otherwise is not a cogent, evidence-based statement. It's your opinion against his opinion. I side with him in this case.
Yes, it's my opinion against his opinion. Opinions, by definition, are NOT evidence-based statements, so I don't understand why MY opinion is in YOUR opinion"a strawman" and HIS opinion "a very thoughtful analysis". I actually liked the video very much, though I think we know more about the Swans than he does.

An average Championship manager would have fixed our defence a long time ago. An average Championship manager would not have insisted on playing from the back when under pressure. An average Championship manager would not have played Cabango and Wood wide and high as attacking full-backs, and he definitely would not have played full-back Naughton in the middle of the back three. An average Championship manager would have instructed our players to pass the ball much faster than they do, etc. etc.

That's why I think the Swans would have performed much better under an average Championship manager than under Martin.

Ali Mathews thinks that Swans have excellent defence. I don't blame him because his opinion is based on false data delivered by Opta. You don't need my Expected Goals tables to understand that our defence allows high quality chances against game after game. Just WATCH our games again. Actually, watching again all the extended highlights would do the trick.

What's the basis of you asserting (again) that Opta Analysts don't know what they're talking about? Their stats on expected goals against ring true for me. What's to stop me saying "CroJack's stats on expected goals are a crock?" You are just exchanging unproveable assertions.
The basis is the hard work I put in the development of a unique expected goals method based on accurate geometric measurements of undefended goal area + distance from the goal + shot angle. I isolate every good chance, remove all noise, insert the measures into Blender (3D modelling application) and calculate xGoals. I don't think my method is something extraordinary, it's not. It's just reflecting common sense and what every football player knows: the more the goal is open, the closer to the goal you are, and the better the angle you shoot is, the better the chance is. This is where Opta's statistical method fails spectacularly. I'll give you an example from three years ago and I still laugh when I think about it. Ivan Toney got awarded a penalty and Opta values every penalty kick as a chance of 0.77 xGoals (a player has 77% chance to score from a penalty kick, which is again a nonsense but this needs a separate explanation). In the same game Ivan Toney was alone in front of the opposition goal (totally unchallenged) around the penalty spot and he calmly scored. Open goal from 12 yards out, the ball around the penalty spot, no goalkeeper. An easy tap in. Opta valued this chance 0.43 xGoals. So, you tell me how an earth can an analyst value a penalty kick with a keeper defending the goal almost as double as worth as an open goal chance (easy unchallenged tap-in) from 12 yards out? Every football player and every football fan would tell you that the latter is a 100% chance. Which it is. In my method I value such chance 1 xGoals. That's a chance where you HAVE to score. Of course there will be players who will miss from such spot, but THAT DOESN'T MAKE THAT CHANCE LESS WORTH. It would be the same as saying that an attractive women you are sleeping with is less attractive because you are impotent.

That's why I say Opta analysts, and not only Opta analysts, don't know what they are talking about when it comes to expected goals and expected points. What they do is a fraud and the whole football community is a victim of their fraud. They earn a lot of money by selling this fraud to TV stations and stats sites, and all of this has been pissing me off for years. Don't think that if something comes from Opta is godsent. It's not. Give me any football game with Opta's expected goals and I will show you how stupid and nonsensical their calculations are.

Expected goals (translated: the quality of chances) can't be calculated statistically. Period. Every chance is unique. Period. The quality of a chance doesn't depend on how many times a similar chance has been missed. Period. I have explained all of this in details more than once, @Yankee_Jack and I have had lengthy discussions about the method I use to calculate expected goals.

What's to stop you saying that my stats on expected goals are crock? Nothing, I'm afraid. If you are religious then there is a good chance you'll believe in everything Opta God is serving to you.

We have no idea on whether Cullen is our ongoing and reliable fox in the box until he is given a run of games (which he seems to be in the process of getting now). Perfectly reasonable for Ali Mathews to state "maybe" and certainly not worthy of you to yell "false" at him for this justifiably cautious statement.
Cullen has been given a run of games, and he's scored five goals (four in the Championship and one in the league Cup), mostly tap-ins, by being there in the opposition box. He had been doing that regularly at U21 and U23 levels, so we already KNOW what he is capable of.

5 goals and 1 assist is not something some maybe-strikers do in 590 minutes of play.

Swansea managers have not been backed by the owners - why do you think Potter and Cooper left and now we are seeing a potential repeat with Martin (although he is not a manager of their calibre). I find it hard to believe that you think Martin has been backed by the owners, unless it is so that you can disagree with Ali Mathews!
Potter made his own squad weaker by signing poor players. Dhanda, Asoro, Govea, McKay, Celina & John. He spent £7m on Asoro, McKay, Celina and John. I repeat £7 millions. For that money he could've bought 14 quality players in Scandinavia for £500.000 each, and had a squad full of quality players. That's what Brentford were doing at that time, and now they are in the Premier League doing well.

Also, Potter didn't know how to defend set-pieces.

Why did he leave us? Brighton came with an offer he couldn't refuse. Nothing to do with the lack of backing. That's just a lame excuse.

Cooper had an even stronger squad. Andre Ayew was on £100.000 a week. If that's not a backing by the owners, then I don't know what it is. We also paid good wages to all those loanees from the Premier League clubs like Woodman, Guehi, Brewster, Gallagher, Gibbs-White, Suridge, Kalulu, etc. and even signed a Premier League player Conor Hourihane on loan. Not to mention Kasey Palmer, Viktor Gyokeres, Kristoffer Peterson, Jordan Morris, Paul Arriola, Jamal Lowe, Korey Smith, Ryan Bennet, Ryan Manning...What about Routledge?

In his first season with us Cooper had Joe Rodon, Mike van der Hoorn, Jake Bidwell...

Why did Cooper leave? He knew that without Ayew, Lowe, Roberts and the Premier League players on loan at Swansea the squad would be significantly weaker. He also knew that the talent pool of the young stars from his U17 World Cup squad would become diluted over time. And, of course, that was the last year with the parachute payments.

Martin?

In his first season we signed: Obafemi from Southampton, Piroe from PSV, Paterson (experienced Championship player), Downes (a talent from MK Dons), Joseph from Wigan, Fisher, Ntcham from Celtic, Rhys Williams from Liverpool, Ethan Laird from Manchester United, Finley Burnes from Manchester City, Hannes Wolf from Bor. M'gladbach, Cyrus Christie from Fulham.

In his second season: Joe Allen, Harry Darling, Nathan Wood, Fin Stevens, Armstrong Oko-Flex, Luke Cundle and Matty Sorinola. And this is the first season when we can possibly say that the manager was not backed by the owners but let's not forget that Martin wanted to get rid of Fulton, Benda, Cabango, Oli Cooper, Liam Culen, Morgan Whittaker and that he got rid of Brendan Cooper, Garrick, Ogbeta and Joseph. Martin is also the guy who plays centre-back Latibeaudiere as right-back and keeps a dedicated right-back Kyle Naughton on the bench. You can ask yourself why on earth would our owners back such a donkey of a manager who doesn't know what he is doing?
 
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jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
Re: the board backing the manager, you only have to look at the number of players that have shown up in Swansea under Martin's watch only to be wasted:

Oko-Flex, Stevens, Williams, Burns, Ogbeta, Joseph, and Whittaker (until this month). Sure, they're mostly young, under-developed players and mostly procured on loan, but the board are still trying to provide Martin with something he can use. He doesn't play them. The team loses face sending under-utilised loan players back and we wonder why teams are reluctant to deal with Swansea during the transfer window. When MW is recalled, Martin names and shames in the press which for all the world smacks of him trying to force the player out of the club, until the brass tell him MW is staying, and suddenly they've got a "brilliant relationship".

There's clearly a communication issue between Martin and the rest of the recruitment team and board, and if watching the Trust video and Martin's lengthy presser have taught me anything, it's that all those acquisitions would have taken a ton of effort from many people, only to fall apart at Martin's doorstep when he refuses to play them. That's not Levien's fault, nor Silverstein's, nor Winter's, nor Marsh's, nor anyone's but Martin's.

That stunt he pulled, asking all his backroom staff to the presser - is he trying to show solidarity to the owners, who must be losing patience with him? i.e. "I've got the backing of my entire staff, you can't sack me". He should quit management and start up a PR firm.
 
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