Brief Pissed Off Analysis - Swa v Bir

Mithrandir

Key Player
As I'm sure all of you know by now, I wasn't a happy camper with last night's performance. I'm just going to highlight a few areas that really pissed me off about our execution.

First up, below we have the distribution of the target zones for Birmingham's and our passes (Birmingham on the left, us on the right). Take a look at the difference between the two teams, they couldn't be any more different. We had 112 out of 510 total passes that targeted the final third, which accounts for about 22% of our passes. Birmingham, on the other hand, had a whopping 181 out of 338 total passes target the final third, which accounted for almost 54% of their passes. That's a night and day difference and shows how much we were under the cosh. You can also see that when we had possession, we were content to just sit back and slowly pass the ball about the back four. 201 of our 510 passes were in our own defensive third, which accounted for over 39% of our total passes. Compare that to Brum, who attempted a measly 26 out of 338 passes in their defensive third. That's less than 8%!

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We were never going to have a chance to counterpress, because Brum rarely allowed themselves to lose possession in their own half. Below you can see pictures of where Birmingham lost possession, and then where we lost possession. Birmingham only lost possession in their own half 12 times out of 47 total occasions, or a little over 25% of the time they lost possession. For us, on the other hand, we lost possession in our own half 14 times out of 38 total occasions, which is almost 37%.

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The last graphic is below, which is a culmination of all the points I've raised so far. I don't think since I've been looking at football data that I've ever seen such a lopsided distribution of the action areas of the pitch before. 43% of the match was played in our defensive third, while only 19% of the match occurred in Brum's defensive third. That's a 24 percentage point spread! That's fucking unacceptable.

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I'm definitely not a person who is going to criticize teams for passing the ball about, trying to move the opposition around to try to create chances. That wasn't what we were doing last night though. We were hiding. We were fucking cowards. We kept the ball about the back four and holding midfielders because we were too fucking scared to go toe-to-toe with a physical, well-drilled squad, and not skilled enough to play around a very untechnical opposition. There is much more to attacking than just passing the ball about the backline. There was just nothing attacking about this at all. I don't want anyone to think I'm calling for Potter's head or anything, but this match had more than a passing similarity to the worst of us under Paul Clement. Eerily similar to me in fact.

There's a lot of work to do. Hopefully we can get some players in before the loan window closes, but this was a really really disappointing match for me to watch.
 
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The Blobster

Prediction Champ
Can't agree more , these youngsters are our future but they desperately need support of streetwise experienced hardnosed players. We took a lot of punishment yesterday by a team that showed a determination to leave something with every challenge , our youngsters shied away from the fight, we absolutely need a leader who will lead from the front and not shy away from a physical challenge. Someone who can bring the ball forward to the opposition half without meekly turning over possession like Carroll and Fulton. Celina needs to be a little more aware of where his colleagues are "hiding" before he plays his one touch passes , a superb first touch and a dribbling ability are not enough unless accompanied by a vision of where his team mates are, teammates who must move forwards into space , not hide away like they did last night.
Are we going to have another season where our midfield refuse to put in a tackle and allow the opposition to run through them as though they are not there.
 

Mithrandir

Key Player
Can't agree more , these youngsters are our future but they desperately need support of streetwise experienced hardnosed players. We took a lot of punishment yesterday by a team that showed a determination to leave something with every challenge , our youngsters shied away from the fight, we absolutely need a leader who will lead from the front and not shy away from a physical challenge. Someone who can bring the ball forward to the opposition half without meekly turning over possession like Carroll and Fulton. Celina needs to be a little more aware of where his colleagues are "hiding" before he plays his one touch passes , a superb first touch and a dribbling ability are not enough unless accompanied by a vision of where his team mates are.
Couldn't agree more Blobs. When you come up against teams like that, you either have to match their physicality and intensity, or you have to be able to play around them and make them chase shadows. Trying to match them given the current team is a waste of time. If we can't play around these teams, we could have some pretty rough stretches this year.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Guys, I agree with everything you say apart from Birmingham being a physical team. Tackling is not equal with physicality. I remember good old days when Nathan Dyer was one of our best tacklers on the pitch. Tackling requires heart and guts, not muscles. There is an old saying "If you can't physically match them in a challenge (duel), tackle them and foul them." Every player at this lavel should be able to tackle and foul.

Birmingham had 13 fouls, we had 11. Not a big difference. The difference was in number of tackles in the midfield. They played with heart and guts.

Look at the number of tackles their two central midfielders made:IMG_20180818_155413.png

It's in the central midfield they won the battle. Celina and Carroll made only one tackle each.
 
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Mithrandir

Key Player
Guys, I agree with everything you say apart from Birmingham being a physical team. Tackling is not equal with physicality. I remember good old days when Nathan Dyer was one of our best tacklers on the pitch. Tæckling requires heart and guts, not muscles. There is an old saying "If you can't physically match them in a challenge (duel), tackle them and foul them." Every player at this lavel should be able to tackle and foul.

Birmingham had 13 fouls, we had 11. Not a big difference. The difference was in number of tackles in the midfield. They played with heart and guts.

Look at the number of tackles their two central midfielders did:
Agree with the intent of your post. Tackles =/= Physicality while Fouls == Physicality.
However, from my viewing, from my biased perspective, Brum should have had probably 7 or 8 extra fouls (maybe more like 3 or 4, but hey, I'm definitely biased). Birmingham are in the top half for fouls per game right now too.
 

Mithrandir

Key Player
Agree with the intent of your post. Tackles =/= Physicality while Fouls == Physicality.
However, from my viewing, from my biased perspective, Brum should have had probably 7 or 8 extra fouls (maybe more like 3 or 4, but hey, I'm definitely biased). Birmingham are in the top half for fouls per game right now too.
Guess who is basically tied for first in Fouls Per Game? You guessed it....Bielsa's Leeds.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Agree with the intent of your post. Tackles =/= Physicality while Fouls == Physicality.
However, from my viewing, from my biased perspective, Brum should have had probably 7 or 8 extra fouls (maybe more like 3 or 4, but hey, I'm definitely biased). Birmingham are in the top half for fouls per game right now too.
Maybe we misunderstand each other when we talk about physicality. Imho, 50/50 challenges (duels) and aerial duels is where physicality counts. Bony is a typical example of a physical player - unless you tackle or foul him, you can't take the ball from him. Fellaini and Diego Costa are physically strong are dirty in the air, they use elbows a lot - that's physicality.
 

CroJack

Key Player
However, from my viewing, from my biased perspective, Brum should have had probably 7 or 8 extra fouls (maybe more like 3 or 4, but hey, I'm definitely biased). Birmingham are in the top half for fouls per game right now too.
Great. Now my question is:
  • why don't we move the ball so fast that they can't foul us?
  • why don't we foul back when they have the ball?
Do you agree with me that you don't need to be a big, ugly bastard to foul and tackle? Birmingham wingers Maghoma and Jota made double as many tackles as our central midfielders Celina and Carroll.
 

KVetch

Key Player
I don't ever want to see a game like that again. Definitely scary, there was no way they were going to score. If we conceded a goal that would have been a big L. Celina has great footwork but couldn't seem to get anything going. The through passes to no one were infuriating. That interview after the match with Carlos and Potter was great though. It's going to be a long season if we can't score. I want to see more of Montero up front. McBurnie had 2 against Birmingham when he was on loan with Barnsley, almost a hat trick but one was ruled out. He can score but most of his goals are assisted. I'd like to see someone other than Olsson too.

 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
That penalty miss worries me. Oli doesn't learn does he? That crap penalty was almost identical to the one he missed against Preston. With the size and athleticism of today's keepers, penalty kicks have to be A) struck hard and B) preferably at least four feet off the ground. Both those kicks were abysmal and shows that previous experience is lost on him. Another penalty taker please!!

His goals also underlined my previous comments about how he's used. True he's a willing workhorse but he's no athlete and hasn't got the strength or the ball control to hold up the ball for others to either join in or run past him. Neither has he got any pace that's worth a wank, so it's pointless playing through balls to him because he rarely gets on the end of them. But he HAS got the nose for a goal. Put it in the mixer and he's often on the end of a loose ball to score. Trouble is, we rarely create those sort of opportunities. Until we do, I'm afraid I just see Oli as a liability.

Honestly, a FIT Bony is light years better than him as a striker, which we'll see if he returns, and it's ridiculous that we're even thinking of selling him. Do we want goals or do we want to see Bony's transfer fee feathering the nest of DC United and Dumb and Dumber's raft of investors? But just to be clear about Oli, I'm NOT writing the young man off because he does have potential. But until we start making better use of his attributes, he's a waste of space.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
..... We were hiding. We were fucking cowards. We kept the ball about the back four and holding midfielders because we were too fucking scared to go toe-to-toe with a physical, well-drilled squad, and not skilled enough to play around a very untechnical opposition. ...
This is it in a nutshell and the difference between the first two games and last night’s.

Now, not a defense, but for all practical purposes, we are playing a U23 squad, studded with some old farts, in the Championship. And in the U23 squad we are starting players that are 19 (Asoro), 20 (Rodon), 21 (Celina). Then comes McB, McKay, Roberts - all 23 or younger. We are going to have games like these. As the season progresses I am expecting the squad to mature: strengthen physically, mentally, intellectually.

Our senior players are offering shit. Dyer, Routs and Narsingh are not offering enough in training to even make the bench. This is very disappointing to me - especially Narsingh. This is the epitome of dead weight.

The passing data tells a simple story: hoof ball by Brum. In the 37% percent of possession that Brum had Monk didn’t trust them to play with it except deep in our half ergo by-pass our midfield as often as possible. And this was amplified by the ease with which we were eased off the ball when trying to go forward, and the hiding by players contrary to the previous two games. McKay for one, wanted no part of last night.

We were piss poor by our own standards, and walked away with a point. Brum were excellent by their standards and only earned a point at home against our piss poor performance. We can grow and get better. Where the fuck can Brum go and that’s before you consider they are being “coached” by Monk, so that kills development right there. How many clubs like Brum are in this league ... quite a few I would wager.

A poor display for sure, but it wasnt for a lack of talent. It’s critical that the young players learn a lesson from last night and understand that the best teams beat bullies by being smarter, sharper, faster. The best way to deal with tough tackling is not to be there when the tackles arrive - that means playing at a higher tempo not hiding.

The likes of Carrol and Fer are not the players to provide skeletal support to our younger players. Fulton is now 24, not a kid any longer but still light in senior experience. He was particularly poor in posession last night and needs to reflect and recover to be better.
 
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ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
At least they'll have an extra day of rest against Leeds.
We'll need it but then again, the lads might surprise us. I'm wondering if Potter will stick with the kids or give a few a rest. He has the likes of Dyer, Montero and Naughton to bring in and Declan John does at least have experience. Perhaps Fer might even start to get/keep us in the game before being subbed and there's always George Byers if he's fit. I know he's inexperienced but he's got to be better than Carroll. I rate Byers as one of the best of our youngsters and it's time he was blooded..... but maybe Leeds is a tough ask for his first game.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Dyer, Routs and Narsingh are not offering enough in training to even make the bench.
Is that true? @Yankee_Jack how do you know that they are not offering enough in training? I mean, we have seven wingers, three of them have to be omitted from the match team. It seems to me that Potter wants to play kids and players he signed. Imagine our reaction if Potter played Dyer and Narsingh while McKay and Asoro didn't even make the bench?

I would understand Narsingh and Dyer's lack of effort in training if they see they are better than McKay and Asoro and not in the starting XI.

Let's honestly ask ourselves: Are McKay and Asoro really better than Narsingh and Dyer?
I know this will be unpopular here, but I don't think they are.

We are moaning here about lack of experience in our team, and our own manager doesn't use experience available to him. Why was Montero on the bench and not McKay? Who says that Montero on the left and Narsingh/Dyer on the right wing wouldn't be better than McKay and Asoro? Who says that Dyer can't score 10 goals per season in the Championship?
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Is that true? @Yankee_Jack how do you know that they are not offering enough in training? ....
Very simple ... they are not being selected.

First, you have to assume that Potter is a rational actor, which means he has a competitive instinct, a desire to be successful, and will act in his own best interest .... other club's don't hire managers that fail (unless you're a desperate club in the Prem and the usual retreads are available). Potter's best interest (and the Club's) has to be to get the best result possible in every match. His job is to put the best combination of players that he has available on the field for every match, prepared to the best of his ability. If not, we risk dropping to L1 and that's going to create an even bigger shit show than we have right now. The Championship is not a forgiving place, with plenty of crap clubs willing to scrap and apply muscle when void of talent and technical ability to hunt and scavenge points however and whenever they can ... exhibit #1, Brum. So ... we play the best team, not necessarily the eleven best players, in every game.

If the likes of Dyer, Routs and Narsingh demonstrated that they were the best options available they would be selected. That is ... unless Potter was under orders not to play them, which would not be rational, as it would not be in the Club's best interest unless the players were on appearance money only and the Club was dead broke, which they are not (I'm pretty confident about that ... they have agents) and the Club cannot possibly be that broke.

When "kids" with no league experience are being selected ahead of senior players with years of senior experience in one or more premier leagues then, unless the seniors are injured and not available, it implies that the seniors are not demonstrating in practice that they deserve to start or at least be on the bench.

I could understand Routs at his age not being at his best; less so with Dyer, and even less so with Narsingh. If Narsingh can't get into this team then WTF did we buy him for. It is reported in transfermarket.co.uk that we paid a fee of £4.1 million for him. Another total waste of money if he can't earn a place in this team. Not to disparage Asoro and McKay, but it was boys against men in the Brum match ... I would hope that Narsingh (now 27) would have been able to cope with that type of competition.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Very simple ... they are not being selected.

First, you have to assume that Potter is a rational actor, which means he has a competitive instinct, a desire to be successful, and will act in his own best interest .... other club's don't hire managers that fail (unless you're a desperate club in the Prem and the usual retreads are available). Potter's best interest (and the Club's) has to be to get the best result possible in every match. His job is to put the best combination of players that he has available on the field for every match, prepared to the best of his ability. If not, we risk dropping to L1 and that's going to create an even bigger shit show than we have right now. The Championship is not a forgiving place, with plenty of crap clubs willing to scrap and apply muscle when void of talent and technical ability to hunt and scavenge points however and whenever they can ... exhibit #1, Brum. So ... we play the best team, not necessarily the eleven best players, in every game.

If the likes of Dyer, Routs and Narsingh demonstrated that they were the best options available they would be selected. That is ... unless Potter was under orders not to play them, which would not be rational, as it would not be in the Club's best interest unless the players were on appearance money only and the Club was dead broke, which they are not (I'm pretty confident about that ... they have agents) and the Club cannot possibly be that broke.

When "kids" with no league experience are being selected ahead of senior players with years of senior experience in one or more premier leagues then, unless the seniors are injured and not available, it implies that the seniors are not demonstrating in practice that they deserve to start or at least be on the bench.

I could understand Routs at his age not being at his best; less so with Dyer, and even less so with Narsingh. If Narsingh can't get into this team then WTF did we buy him for. It is reported in transfermarket.co.uk that we paid a fee of £4.1 million for him. Another total waste of money if he can't earn a place in this team. Not to disparage Asoro and McKay, but it was boys against men in the Brum match ... I would hope that Narsingh (now 27) would have been able to cope with that type of competition.
I think you are too harsh on Narsingh. In a year and half at Swansea he had 8 appearances from start. Eight !!! He has never got a proper run of games for us. Same with Dyer and Montero ! Both of them have been out on loan. It's not their fault our managers have had a bright idea to play without wingers. I can't believe they are not professionals who give everything in training.

What is going on at Swansea right now has nothing to do with our players' effort in training, it's all about money. The yanks want kids on £10.000 a week, and Potter has to execute their plan. For god sake, we have made bigger profit on transfers this sommer than any other club in UK, including Premier League clubs. And the yanks and Potter keep telling us that we don't have money, and that the club is in a difficult financial situation. I am telling you, this is not about our players' professionalism. Dyer, Routledge and Narsingh have got the message that they can f*** off because the club has to cut wages. The funny thing is that we already have cut the wages so much that the yanks can afford all senior players who are here now, to stay at the club. But they don't want to. What they want is a good ROI (return on investment), they want to recoup their investment before they sell the club for profit. They are not interested in promotion. C'mon, it's obvious they aren't. If they were, they would have replaced the dead wood with better players, not with the kids (I am not saying the kids won't be excellent in future, but we need excellent players NOW if we want promotion). They would have invested not only the money we have got from transfers, but their own money too. Next year it's going to be more difficult to gain promotion, and the year after even more. After three years we'll be without parachute payments and in the same situation like Reading, Birmingham, Blackburn etc. fighting against relegation from the Championship. And all these talented players we have now will be sold to clubs with a litlle bit ambition and with owners who want to invest their own money.
 

CroJack

Key Player
First, you have to assume that Potter is a rational actor, which means he has a competitive instinct, a desire to be successful, and will act in his own best interest ....Potter's best interest (and the Club's) has to be to get the best result possible in every match. His job is to put the best combination of players that he has available on the field for every match, prepared to the best of his ability.
Sorry, but I can't assume Potter is a rational actor. He is a romantic.

Laudrup is a rational actor....and Bielsa, and Big Sam. You can't mess with them. Or if you do, they walk. It's either their way, or the highway. None of them would tolerate players like Olsson, Carroll and Fulton on the pitch, players who will never ever improve. The limit of these players is being average. And when they play under their limit, then they are crap. Which they are quite often.

I am not against romantic managers, but then I want them to be 100 % romantic. Potter has accepted he won't be getting any quality senior players so he plays Rodon, Asoro, Celina,...and that's fine, but he should go one step further and play John, Dhanda, Byers, Maric, Govea etc. instead of Olsson, Carroll and Fulton. Let's get rid of all senior players who don't or can't perform and try instead U23. What can we lose? We won't get promoted anyway.

I'd rather have a midfield of Byers, Celina and Dhanda than Carroll, Celina and Fulton. Yeah, we'll lose some games, but I bet we'll lose more games with Carroll, Olsson and Fulton in the starting XI. And the losses will come. Soon. Our main problem now is our midfield....and our left back. Potter must sort it out.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack ... “romantic” .... what do you base that on .... and how is a romantic person supposed to act.

Rationality in this type of analysis is a statement that the person acts in their own best interest. It would not be rational to act against ones own best interest. For example ... Rational ... wants to succeed. Not rational ... wants to fail - such action can only become rational if there are unknown circumstances that would make failure an outcome in the best interest.

In any case, the issue that has been lost is that senior players are not being selected. Why? If all parties are rational actors, and all parties are acting in their best interest, then failing to be selected, in all probability, is because the players are not earning selection by their performance in practice. Senior pros with many years of Prem league experience are being bypassed in favor of “kids” with minimal experience. Something is rotten in Denmark. If it’s not the players, and Potter is acting rationally by selecting the best available team, then it lays open the possibility of external interference.
 
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