Underlying numbers not so bad, but our defence is the problem

[CroJack]

All credit for these scatter graphics goes to @experimental361.

Expected goals for and against; expected points:



Shots for and against:



Shots taken per goal scored and shots taken per match:



Shots faced per goal conceded and shots faced per match:



Expected goals allowed per match and expected goals created per match:



1. Expected points

Bad news: we are far behind Leeds, Brentford and Sheffield Wednesday.
Good news: we have deserved to be in the mix for the play off places.

2. Shots for and against

Bad news: we concede too many shots per game, which is a structural problem. When I say structural problem then I mean Steve Cooper and our style of play. We are not defending as a team and we don't have a proper defensive structure.
Good news: we are in top five for shots taken per match.

3. Shots taken per goal scored and shots taken per match

Bad news: none.
Good news: optimists would say we are pretty clinical, and pesimists that we are slightly wasteful. We need 10 shots to score 1 goal.

4. Shots faced per goal conceded and shots faced per match

Bad news: none.
Good news: when we face shots we rarely concede. Opposition needs 15 shots to score 1 goal against us.

5. Expected goals allowed per match and expected goals created per match

Bad news: we allow 1.5 expected goal per game, which means we deserve to concede 1.5 goals per game. We create less, only 1.45 expected goals per game, which means that we, on average, deserve to score 1.45 goals per game. We allow opposition to create too many good chances against us.
Good news: none.

It's important to notice that the stats from our last game have not been calculated, which means that our numbers in the above scatter graphics are slightly worse than they should be. We created much better chances than Boro.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

#5. We are upside down here. If we deserve to concede 1.5 and deserve to score 1.45 then we’re net deserving of defeat. Not a good place to be and the Shit Streak of winning just 4 of the last 15 league games and 2 of 8 games at home is illustrative of how valid and how cutting a metric this can be.

Bottom line: we are not deserving.

And it doesn’t matter how that dozy Andy Pandy spins it we have not been deserving of victories and in some matches we were damn lucky to squeak a draw. This is the crux of it. Whatever cool aid we were running on in August, it wasn’t brewed by our Andy Pandy. His batch didn’t kick-in until after the international break in September ... and it’s been rotting our guts since then.

against an 8-man Boro we we sluggish and in effective when Rogers’ championship team (a unit that punched above its weight) would have cut them to ribbons.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

The problem is midfield not owning the ball, and up stream Cooper. If the midfield did a better job then our defense wouldn’t be so busy.

 

[CroJack]

We are upside down here. If we deserve to concede 1.5 and deserve to score 1.45 then we’re net deserving of defeat.

Nope. The difference between 1.50 and 1.48 is insignificant. Therefore we are on average deserving draws. Which means we are bang average on average. Which again means, we deserve to be a mid-table team. Which we are.

Not a good place to be and the Shit Streak of winning just 4 of the last 15 league games and 2 of 8 games at home is illustrative of how cutting a metric this can be.

This metric is actually excellent. When we had that winning streak before the September international break, xG metric showed we didn't deserve to be the top of the table, or for that matter nowhere near the top. We were just lucky with the results. During that period we should have won only two games: Hull and Birmingham. The rest shoud have been either draws or losses.

Bottom line: we are not deserving.

We are still deserving to be a mid-table team, and that's not because we a good mid-table team like last season, but because there are 12-14 crapier teams in the Chamoionship this season.

And it doesn’t matter how that dozy Andy Pandy spins it we have not been deserving of victories and in some matches we were damn lucky to squeak a draw. This is the crux of it.

And the other way around. Some of our opponents have not deserved their victories against us and in some matches they were damn lucky to squeak a draw.

Whatever cool aid we were running on in August, it wasn’t brewed by our Andy Pandy. His batch didn’t kick-in until after the international break in September ... and it’s been rotting our guts since then.

That was a cool aid of pure luck, and luck in most cases evens out during the course of a season.

Against an 8-man Boro we we sluggish and in effective when Rogers’ championship team (a unit that punched above its weight) would have cut them to ribbons

Correct. But despite beiong sluggish, we were also a better side even when Boro played with 11 men. We created better chances.

 

[CroJack]

The problem is midfield not owning the ball, and up stream Cooper. If the midfield did a better job then our defense wouldn’t be so busy.

The whole team has to defend better, especially our midfielders. Yet again a sloppy sideway pass from one of our midfielders led to an opposition goal. But Roberts' defending was terible as well. The difference between the good and bad teams is, among other things, that the good teams can afford sloppy passes in dangerous areas from time to time, because their back four can correct errors. Our lot can't. I think that this season we've conceded almost every time we've made a sloppy pass in dangerous areas.

 

[ivoralljack]

@CroJack and @Yankee_Jack as ever when you two get into a debate it's never less than interesting. . No wild assumptions and claims here, just well reasoned and intelligent points being made with respect for each other's opinions. Good stuff, guys.

The problem is midfield not owning the ball, and up stream Cooper. If the midfield did a better job then our defense wouldn’t be so busy.

No argument from me about this. It is well known that I have a 'thing' about midfield with good reason. Midfield is the heartbeat and the engine of any team and when it's not working properly the team suffers. It's a very difficult position to play in because of the responsibilities involved, specifically in helping the defence by breaking up attacks before they happen and then in creating chances for strikers who need good service to do their jobs. I can speak from experience as a former striker because when the chances aren't coming your way, it can be soul destroying - even at the level I played. I well remember how Sousas broke Gorka Pintado's heart - talk about flogging a willing horse to death!! When he did eventually get a chance he was usually too knackered to put it away.

No doubt that Cooper has to concentrate on getting this right. When/if he does, the team will find the rhythm, tempo and fluency it needs.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

@CroJack ... don't forget one very important factor: No whirlwind August then we would now be propping up the league. August: was it an aberration; or, a carry over from Potter and Cooper's influence was delayed but barreling down the tracks; or, we just happen to take advantage of other clubs just slow.

Remove August and my assessment on #5 is dead accurate ... the numerical difference between deserving goals against versus deserving goals for may be "numerically" negligible but line that up with the actual results since mid-Sept and there is not only a strong inference to be drawn that the concept of "deserving" is a sharper bite than numbers suggest, but the "hint" of "deserving to lose" is not just a hint, it's been reality.

Dozy Andy Pandy is here still for one reason and one reason only ... August. And for August, he needs to give Potter a massive kiss.

Remove August and I could coach the team and get the same set of results with these players. Fuck, I'd just tell them to go out and make it happen and they would, and might even do better ... and that's if I just sat on my fat arse and drank beer all day. 4 wins out of 15 games is pathetic ... bottom team Barnsley have a better record than as us over the last 5 games.

 

[CroJack]

@CroJack ... don't forget one very important factor: No whirlwind August then we would now be propping up the league. August: was it an aberration; or, a carry over from Potter and Cooper's influence was delayed but barreling down the tracks; or, we just happen to take advantage of other clubs just slow.

Remove August and my assessment on #5 is dead accurate ... the numerical difference between deserving goals against versus deserving goals for may be "numerically" negligible but line that up with the actual results since mid-Sept and there is not only a strong inference to be drawn that the concept of "deserving" is a sharper bite than numbers suggest, but the "hint" of "deserving to lose" is not just a hint, it's been reality.

Dozy Andy Pandy is here still for one reason and one reason only ... August. And for August, he needs to give Potter a massive kiss.

Remove August and I could coach the team and get the same set of results with these players. Fuck, I'd just tell them to go out and make it happen and they would, and might even do better ... and that's if I just sat on my fat arse and drank beer all day. 4 wins out of 15 games is pathetic ... bottom team Barnsley have a better record than as us over the last 5 games.

Agreed. I am not disputing what you are saying, I've had enough of Cooper as much as you have. What I'm trying to say again and again is that our underlying numbers were not better during the pre-September period. We were just lucky. We have been bang average from the start of this season, and that's mostly Cooper's fault. I say mostly, because no matter how bad a manager is, the players have to perform better. Apart from Fulton, all our midfielders have been underperforming since September. Big Mike, Roberts, Bidwell, Dyer etc. as well. I will never blame the manager for what Celina and Roberts did when we conceded the goal against Middlesbrough. I am talking here about some basic things. If you don't have a passing option then either hoof it or win a throw-in.

 

[Borini]

Sadly what I saw when we had our lucky run in August has come to be. We are shit and are going to drop even further. Middlesbrough down to 9 men were better than us and they were rubbish when they had 11 on the pitch. I thought we would finish mid table. I was wrong
We are the team which nose dives to relegation with a crap run from February onwards. Except our run has already begun. Luton will turn us over as well, the reason being the guy teaching schoolboy football will have a whole week to make us worse.