The Reds

[CroJack]

Part I

Ownership
​

Nottingham Forest Football Club Limited is solely owned by NF Football Investments Limited. Evangelos Marinakis owns 80% of the issued share capital of NF Football Investments Limited and Sokratis Kominakis owns the remaining 20%.

Evangelos Marinakis



age 51, is a Greek shipowner and the owner of the Greece football club Olympiacos. He has been the majority owner of Nottingham Forrest since May 2017.
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In 2015 he was accused by Greece authorities of participating in a match-fixing criminal network but later found not guilty during the trial. He and his close associates were under investigation for approaching and trying to use policemen, judges, politicians and other powerful figures for their own ends as part of the planning and establishment of a criminal, match-fixing organization. According to the prosecutor, Marinakis was helped by the President of the Greek Football Association, Giorgos Sarris, to choose specific referees to oversee key games. On 26 March 2018, the Greek Supreme Court confirmed that the allegations against Marinakis for match-fixing were unfounded, but then again in March 2018, Marinakis was charged with trafficking heroin. The accusations against Marinakis were described as "very serious charges" following a three-year investigation after the tanker Noor One was intercepted at the Greek port of Piraeus carrying 2.1 tonnes of heroin in 2014. The prosecutor said the inquiry should be expanded to include other possible criminal acts including fuel smuggling and money laundering.

 

[Behindthegoal]

Obviously passed with flying colours as a fit and proper person to own a football club. He makes our twosome look like Mother Theresa!

 

[CroJack]

Part II​

Manager

Aitor Karanka, age 44


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A former Atletic Bilbao and Real Madrid player Aitor Karanka started his managerial career in 2010 at Real Madrid as assistant manager to Jose Mourinho. Between 2013 and 2017 he managed Middlesbrough winning promotion to the Premier League in 2016 as runner-up. In 2016/17 season, Middlesbrough were known as a team who played a rigid defensive football while not scoring enough goals. When he left the club in 2017, Middlesbrough defence was the fifth-best in the division but their attack was the worst with just 19 goals from 27 games.

Karanka doesn't play attractive, attacking football. When Middlesbrough under his guidance finished 2nd in the Championship they
only scored 63 goals in 46 league games, which is in no way an overwhelming number. However, they allowed only 31 goals in that span, the best in the division. That solidity combined with a penchant for capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes and a little flair for the spectacular put Boro back among the top 20 teams in England. But, as we all know, the same 'virtue' got them relegated back to the Championship next season. Karanka is one of Mourinho's disciples, and his style of play, similar to his boss, emphasizes defensive solidity over exhilarating, attacking play. When Karanka was hired at Boro, they were struggling toward the bottom of the Championship table. The mandate initially was to stop the bleeding and stabilize Boro in their current division. Once that step was complete, the next goal was to make the promotion playoffs, which Boro nearly surpassed at the first time of asking. Karanka’s willingness to see the project through to completion eventually paid off with Boro’s second-place finish behind Burnley in 2015/16. As a student of Jose Mourinho, there was only ever one approach Karanka was going to take at Middlesbrough. The bus was well and truly parked, with the best defensive record in the Championship to show for it. Despite a flat 4-4-2 often being the formation of choice when trying to provide stability in England’s second tier, Karanka instead chose to employ a 4-2-3-1. This again will not be any surprise to those who know Jose Mourinho as he has used a similar formation for years. The back four, while not completely focused on defence, certainly knew Karanka’s priorities. The two centre-backs were expected to be solid with the full backs providing defensive stability in addition to some threat going forward. These four had additional help from the two central midfielders. The two in midfield were charged both with protecting the back line and linking play forward. Karanka fulfilled this tactical vision of a defensively solid team that scored just enough goals to be dangerous by utilizing the personnel at his disposal to their utmost. When Middlesbrough gained automatic promotion, there were rumbles of discontent in the stands when a game went too long without them scoring. That was because Karanka's style of play was cautious, to say the least. Karanka certainly favoured a slow, deliberate passing style that was intended to dominate possession and grind teams down. And while that worked in the Championship, in the Premier League the slow build-up simply allowed teams to mass their ranks and prevent Boro's creative talents from piercing a hole in their defence. That at least in part led to their most basic and most important problem - not scoring enough goals.

So, have anything changed since he took over at Nottingham Forrest? Yes and no. Forrest play 4-2-3-1 but their defence is not as solid as it was Boro's defence under Karanka. In 5 Championship games, Forrest conceded 9 goals. In only one game they didn't concede and that was the game against piss-poor Clement's Reading. They won it 1:0. On the other hand, they scored in each of their games played this season in the Championship.

 

[LittlePuma]

I love reading these. Thank you!

 

[CroJack]

I love reading these. Thank you!

Are you all right? Safe?

 

[LittlePuma]

Are you all right? Safe?

Yes, we moved inland to visit with some family. Still going to get a good bit of rain starting tonight where we are. But we are away from the sea. I appreciate the concern!

 

[CroJack]

Part III​

Transfers this season​

One thing is clear: Forrest is trying to emulate Wolves' path to success from last season. They have had the biggest net-spend of all Championship clubs and they have bought Portuguese. Let's see which players they have bought and signed on loan:

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1. Joao Carvalho is the player they've spent the most of their money on. Allegedly a big talent, but his stats are not as brilliant as his price is.

In 2016/17 he played for Portuguese club Vitoria De Setubal where he, in 17 appearances, scored only 1 goal and had no assists. He had 1,1 shots per game and 1,1 key passes per game.

In 2017/18 he signed for Benfica where he didn't play much. He had 1 appearance in the Champions League (no goals and assists) and 7 appearances (mostly from the bench) in Portuguese top tier where he managed only 1 assist.

In six appearances for Forrest this season he had 1 assist, 0.8 shots per game, 1,3 key passes per game, 1,8 take-ons per game and 78,3 % passing accuracy. His average rating on Whoscored for the last three years is miserable 6,50.

It is incredible that Forrest have paid so much money for a youngster who has such stats. In the last three years, our Bersant Celina has scored 12 goals and had 5 assists. This season Celina has averaged 2,2 shots per game, 1,8 key passes per game, 2 take-ons per game and 81,4 % passing accuracy. Celina beats Carvalho at every crucial stats.

2. Lewis Grabban, 30 years old striker, signed from Bournemouth for approx. £5,5 m. Grabban's Championship stats are pretty good, he is a proven Championship goalscorer but what impresses me most about him is that he averages 81+ % passing accuracy, which is incredible for a striker. He should be a good signing for Forrest although he hasn't scored a single goal this season in 5 appearances.

3. El Arbi Hillel Soudani, 30 years old striker and winger, Algerian international, signed from Dinamo Zagreb. He is Forrest's best signing in my opinion but Karanka refuses to play him. I don't know why. He played only 131 minutes this season and scored 2 goals for Forrest. That's 1goal every 65 minutes, which is a world-class return. I know Soudani from Dinamo Zagreb and I like him as a player, he is a fox in the box.

Here are his stats for Dinamo Zagreb:

and here are some of his goals:

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4. Tobias Figueiredo, centre-back, age 24, signed from Portuguese Sporting CP. A solid player who was on loan at Forrest last season. He reads the game well but his passing accuracy is not so good.

5. Michael Hefele, German centre-back, 27 years old, signed from Huddersfield. Hefele has experience from the Championship with Huddersfield, he had 40 appearances in 2016/17 for them but he played only 32 minutes in the Premier League last season.

6. Michael Dawson, centre-back, 34 years old, signed from Hull on a free transfer. I think all of you know who he is.

7. Panagiotis Tachtsidis, defensive midfielder, age 27, Greece international, released by Olympiacos (what a coincidence !!!, Forrest and Olympiacos have the same owner) and signed on a free transfer. He is an experienced midfielder who before he signed for Olympiacos had played for six Italian clubs: Roma, Catania, Torino, Verona, Genoa and Cagliari in Italian Serie A.

8. Karim Ansarifard, striker, age 28, Iran international, released by Olympiacos (what a coincidence !!!, Forrest and Olympiacos have the same owner) and signed on a free transfer. Why would Olympiacos release a striker who in 2017/18 scored 18 goals in 28 appearances for them? Obviously to help Forrest to get promoted.

9. Jack Robinson, left-back, age 24, signed on a free transfer from QPR. A product of the Liverpool Academy, since 2013 has played in the Championship for Blackpool, Huddersfield and QPR. Solid, experienced left-back.

10. Luke Steele, goalkeeper, age 33, signed from Bristol City on a free transfer. He was first goalkeeper for Barnsley in the Championship season 2013/14 but since has been reseve goalkeeper for Greek club Panathinaikos and Bristol City.

11. Sam Byram, right-back, age 24, signed on loan from West Ham. Since 2013 has had 113 appearances for Leeds in the Championship and for West Ham in the Premier League.

12. Gil Dias, right winger, age 21, signed from Monaco on loan. In season 2016/17 played for Portuguese club Rio Ave where he scored 6 goals and had 4 assists. In 2017 he signed for Monaco and sent on loan to Italian club Fiorentina where he scored 2 goals and had 2 assists. A talented young player.

13. Costel Pantilimon, goalkeeper, age 31, signed from Watford for undisclosed fee. He has experience from the Premier League, mostly with Sunderland. Last season he spent 6 months on loan at Nottingham Forrest.

14. Jack Colback, defensive midfielder, age 28, signed on loan from Newcastle. Experienced midfielder who played in the Premier League both for Sunderland and Newcastle. Last season he was on loan at Nottingham Forrest.

15. Diogo Goncalves, left-winger, age 21, signed on loan from Benfica. Another talented youngster.

16. Saidy Janko, right-back, age 22, signed on loan from Porto. Ex-Celtic player signed a four year deal this summer with Portuguese giants Porto . Celtic fans called his transfer to Porto as a bizarre one. They obviously don't rate him.

17. Claudio Yacob, defensive midfielder, age 31, signed as a free agent. An experienced midfielder, since 2012 he has had 160 appearances for WBA in the Premier League.

 

[ivoralljack]

Great stuff as usual, CJ.

 

[CroJack]

Part IV​

This season​

Forrest's huge investment in the squad has not paid off yet. Actually, the quality of football has been disappointing and the results have been better than deserved.

Here is their league position:

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Six games played, 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss.

They are the most aggressive team in the division, they have already collected 21 yellow cards, 15 of them in away games. As we can see below they are not in the Championship top 5 teams at shots per game, possession, areal duels won, pass accuracy and ratings.

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Though their possession is much better when they play at home turf:

What is the difference between Forrest and Swansea?​

Goals: Forrest 8 - Swansea 7
Shots per game: Forrest 11, 8 - Swansea 9,5
Shots on target per game: Forrest 3,8 - Swansea 3,3
Discipline: Forrest 21 yellow cards - Swansea 2 yellow and 1 red
Tackles per game: Forrest 23,5 - Swansea 15,5
Fouls per game: Forrest 16 - Swansea 8,7
Possession: Forrest 51,8 % - Swansea 49,7 %
Passing accuracy: Forrest 73 % - Swansea 75,8 %
Aerial duels won per game: Forrest 24,8 - Swansea 23,3
Interceptions per game: Forrest 10,7 - Swansea 9,7
Dribbles per game: Forrest 10,5 - Swansea 9,3
Cross per game: Forrest 15 - Swansea 12
Long balls per game: Forrest 79 - Swansea 67
Short passes per game: Forrest 346 - Swansea 344​

As you can see, I have highlighted the main difference between us and Forrest. They shoot more than we do, they are extremely aggressive and dirty, and they play many long balls.

​

 

[CroJack]

Part V​

Best players



Most creative players (players with most key passes per game):



Players who dribble most:



Players who make them tick:



Best passers:

​

 

[CroJack]

Part VI

Forrest best XI



Conclusion:

The Reds are definitely the dirtiest team in the Championship, especially when they play away. They will foul and tackle us, but we have McBurnie who is one of the dirtiest players in the Championship. He is joint second for most fouls per game.



How can we win this game?

Well, by exploiting their weaknesses. We are good at counter-attacks, they are bad at defending against them. They are bad at winning aerial duels, we are the best in the league at winning aerial duels when playing at home turf. They are bad at defending against attacks down the wings, we have some good wingers (but pity Montero is injured). And finally, they are bad at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas which is going to give us some opportunities to score from set-pieces.

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[Ladygargar]

Great stuff @CroJack
Their 21 yellows - slightly worrying - how many players will we have left come 5pm tonight?