Sousa ... deja vu all over again

[Yankee_Jack]

Reposted from Oli thread ... I think this is that important ...

My previously posted analogy in other threads to the Sousa season has sadly just gotten stronger. Out goes McB and James, out goes 26 (22+4) league goals plus assists yielding a net goal difference of -23 (+3 - 26) .... as did Scotland/Gomez/Bodde 35 goals (20+11+7), net goal difference -22 (+13 - 35).

A budgeted goal difference of less than -20 has a very high probability of relegation unless mitigating action is taken to offset this loss of goals and therefore point generating power. For example, new players arrive, existing players pump up their goal production, goals conceded drops dramatically. HJ treated Sousa shabbily in terms of new players. We had a catastrophe at #9 that season ... Pintado, Beattie (sick note), Kuqi ... all were subpar and substandard.

Sousa lowered our goals against to 37 from 50, while our goals for dropped from 63 to 40 as a result of the players lost, not replaced, and nobody stepping it up. We ended up with a miracle goal difference of +3 and missed the playoffs on goal difference, a point better than the previous season. A piece of magical defensive coaching as there ever has been. And that bastard Monk had the nerve to criticize Sousa and demean his efforts in his piece of shit book.

All of this brings me to Cooper as history is poised to repeat. Is Cooper capable of producing a Sousa-esque coaching performance. Cooper’s model is about attack not defense. If we don’t get the defensive part of the game rock solid then we are going to be fucked because we are hoarding cash to offset an apparent cash deficit with no regard to the resulting goal deficit it is producing in the squad. We also have the risk that Ayew and Borja may still yet walk out the door, with Ayew yet to see the squad preseason .... has he even trained. And, our only sure to stay forward CBR has seen minimal game time preseason. The loss of Oli now means Borja is our starting #9 ... what would have been the bookie’s odds on that back in May. No where near as piss poor as Pintado/Beattie/Kuqi .... Borja can’t play if he doesn’t stay.

We all now need to kneel and join hands in prayer: “Please Ivor and Mel, thou art in heaven, spirit the ball into their goal as often as you possibly can and keep it away from our end. Amen”. We need a divine act or Cooper needs to start walking on water offensively or at least produce defensive magic like Sousa. Anything less and we are going to get hammered and we are seriously at risk of being relegated.

I wonder what Cooper is thinking now .... does he feel stabbed in the back or was he fully aware of that the safety net was going to be ripped from under him.

 

[ivoralljack]

Very thoughtful and interesting post @Yankee_Jack and, whilst I'm gutted at Oli's departure, it's a great chance for Borja to step up. Since his great season in Spain he's been through a lean time to say the least but the guy is quality. No one scores the amount of goals he did for a struggling team in La Liga unless he has quality.

We all know the reasons for his struggles since he came to us. Disruption, uncertainty and managerial changes do not help a player to settle, particularly when he's foreign and having to adapt to a sea of changes in terms of culture, language, team bonding etc etc. Given time to bed in and strike a rapport with his team mates, and Cooper's requirements, he should become prolific at this level. But he needs TIME so we should all show patience and give him the support he needs to be successful. Let's not forget that Dan was a slow burn, flopping at Shrewsbury for instance, until something clicked. The rest is history...... and of course Grimes took time as well but look at him now!! First name on the team sheet.

Then there is Ayew. No, no, NO, I can hear people scream. But here's the thing - if we can't sell him or loan him out, we might as well play him because we're paying his wages anyway. And, like Borja, whether you like the guy or not, he's a class above Championship level and if those two did click we could be in for a pretty good season.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

All good optimistic points @ivoralljack.

It would be interesting to see Ayew as #9. In that role in the Prem for us, he looked at his best. He wasn't prone to wander around out of position and interfere with the space of other players as he did while playing in a wide role. I am guessing that Ayew is a good 4 weeks from match fitness; perhaps less if he has been professional and putting in the preseason work.

Begs the question: is the departure of Oli because we desperately just need cash, or because we can't find beggars for Borja and Ayew and if we can't get rid of their cash drain we have to find an alternative and that's selling Oli.

Oli and James ... two gems it took us years to mature and now that they're just ready to produce to expectation they're whisked away.

So it's going to be Borja at #9 against Hull.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

To put some more meat on the bone ... looking back over the last 10 seasons. This is how goal difference correlated to final points and position.
Pos GD (average) +/- (std dev)
20 (19) 6
21 (18) 9
22 (24) 11
23 (30) 11
24 (39) 11

There are some big spreads there, nonetheless it indicates the hole the Club has placed itself in.

Having lost two players - Oli and Dan - we removed 26 goals from our ledger leaving us without a net goal difference of -23. This would have most likely relegated us based on the ten season average. Because of the dire quality at the foot of the table, last season with -23 we would have survived just.

Having removed two units of output, we can balance the ledger by either finding / acquiring new players to make up the loss, or spread the loss over a number of current players by boosting their output, or reducing our goals against dramatically, or some combination.

Where do you find new players capable of the combined goal output of Oli/Dan at the discount store. Our only real options are getting players on-hand to boost goal output and board up the goal ... and we have Murder & Nothing in goal!

It's been done before (Sousa). But faced with such adversity it's a trick not many coaches are capable of.