One particularly interesting aspect of Elfsborg's last campaign is that they had a low possession stat compared with the other sides around them at the top of the table. Here's a comparison of the order the teams finished in the table vs most possession stats (top 6):
| Malmo | 64.7%, 1st for possession |
| Elfsborg | 46.4%, 10th |
| Hacken | 57.1%, 2nd |
| Djurgarden | 53.4%, 5th |
| Varnamo | 54.7%, 3rd |
| Kalmar | 54.5%, 4th |
Elfsborg's 10th best possession stat in the division looks really out of place here. There's a general correlation in this division (as in most) between lots of possession and finishing high in the table, which makes basic logical sense. The problems come when coaches confuse correlation with causation and figure if only they can maintain high possession, they'll automatically win (Russell Martin).
As you're probably all aware, I love attack-minded coaches that never forget the point of the game is to score goals, so Elfsborg's lower possession stats don't scare me at all. In fact, I think they are encouraging.
Except for games in which the possession-heavy side is clearly of far superior quality to the opposition (like most premier league "big six" v "small fourteen" matchups, and I suspect like Malmo vs most of this division), possession is primarily a defensive strategy, not an offensive one. In many ways it's the aesthetes version of parking the bus.
The intention is the same - stop the opposing team scoring - but the approach is different, in this case keep the ball away from them rather than maintain a disciplined low defensive block and limit their opportunities to low percentage shots. The choice comes down to the type of players in the squad - the first requires good positional sense, technical skill and speed of thought, the second requires good positional sense and enormous concentration - but since points for style don't show up in the league table I could care less about looking good.
As I've said before, the act of shooting is to relinquish possession, and it seems that Thelin isn't scared to risk losing possession in order to win the game. This also suggests he has a lot of faith that his team can win the ball back quickly, if only to relinquish possession once again by shooting as soon as possible. For me, he has the right priorities.
Don't get me wrong, I like possession, but it should never eclipse shooting and scoring. We all sat through two seasons of footballing "telephone hold music" when Martin apparently decided possession
was more important than shooting and scoring, and I'm not in a hurry to sit through any more displays of pre-pressing era retrogression, especially when they're only good for a 15th place finish. I'd rather Swansea were the pressing team and not the team being pressed, especially if it means more turnovers won in dangerous areas and therefore more shots, more goals, and consequently more wins.
For Elfsborg to finish so high, only missing out on the #1 spot due to goal difference, and yet hold such a low possession stat tells me these guys know that you win by scoring goals, and they must be excellent pressers and excellent counter-attackers. They also had the division's second best defence with a sub-50% possession stat and without parking the bus.
Also, since Elfsborg's counters generally come from turnovers in the opponents third, they don't need the pace associated with a counter-attacking team that breaks from deep, which is good for Swansea if they do get Thelin as there's not a whole lot of pace in that locker room.
It's probably just paper talk, but I'd be very interested to see Thelin in Swansea.
I think his first name is Macauley or something like that. I believe he outscored Mullins when both their teams won promotion from the Conference and that took some doing!!
