It's Luke Williams
- Thread starter CroJack
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CroJack
Key Player
The author of this article is Stuart James who always has reliable sources and is a Swansea fan.
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Swansea set to appoint Williams as new head coach
Swansea City are set to appoint Luke Williams as their new head coach. Williams, who led Notts County back to the English Football League (EFL) last season via promotion from the National League play-offs, made a strong impression when interviewed by the Swansea board and is expected to take...
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I still have reservations about Notts County's bad defensive record - especially with Swansea's ropey centre backs - but the attacking part is definitely a reason for excitement.
Looking forward to Saturday - a low pressure cup tie against a far weaker team is a fantastic first game for a new manager. Plus, Williams beat Morecambe 5-0 two weeks ago in League Two, so he's already got them sussed.
Looking forward to Saturday - a low pressure cup tie against a far weaker team is a fantastic first game for a new manager. Plus, Williams beat Morecambe 5-0 two weeks ago in League Two, so he's already got them sussed.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Wait a minute, we are going to replace an interim manager who: (a) had to step in and replace a limp dick lower league wanna be; (b) has a record over 7 games (4 away) of over 50% .... making him one of our most successful interim managers ever .... with another potentially limp dick lower league wanna be.
I am underwhelmed, disappointed, and can't believe we're going to try the same cheap shit move yet again. But, of course I can believe it, because that's what we do these days. We point a loaded gun at our own balls and then wonder why it ultimately hurts.
This new wanna be is going to take time to figure out the squad and come up with his own version of square pegs in round holes ... because his "philosophy" requires it. Meanwhile, the performance of the squad is likely to suffer as the player mindset is going to be left in limbo as yet again they have to adjust to a new guy's ideas.
Why, FFS, don't we just let Sheehan run to the end of the season. At least, we know him, he knows the squad, and he's demonstrated what he can do. He's doing what the first lower league wonder with a big ego and an even bigger mouth couldn't ... he's harvesting points! And entertaining somewhat at the same time.
Sheehan has demonstrated as much as any of the last three of four managers (Duffer, Madness, Potter) and certainly as much as Williams, that he's qualified to be our manager in the Championship. We already have the best immediate term solution to our problem on the payroll.
Do we really need to pull a Birmingham?
I am underwhelmed, disappointed, and can't believe we're going to try the same cheap shit move yet again. But, of course I can believe it, because that's what we do these days. We point a loaded gun at our own balls and then wonder why it ultimately hurts.
This new wanna be is going to take time to figure out the squad and come up with his own version of square pegs in round holes ... because his "philosophy" requires it. Meanwhile, the performance of the squad is likely to suffer as the player mindset is going to be left in limbo as yet again they have to adjust to a new guy's ideas.
Why, FFS, don't we just let Sheehan run to the end of the season. At least, we know him, he knows the squad, and he's demonstrated what he can do. He's doing what the first lower league wonder with a big ego and an even bigger mouth couldn't ... he's harvesting points! And entertaining somewhat at the same time.
Sheehan has demonstrated as much as any of the last three of four managers (Duffer, Madness, Potter) and certainly as much as Williams, that he's qualified to be our manager in the Championship. We already have the best immediate term solution to our problem on the payroll.
Do we really need to pull a Birmingham?
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Yankee_Jack
Key Player
And if Williams comes in ... with his own butt lickers scurrying behind ... what's going to become of Sheehan.
At this point, weighing the balance, I see the hiring of Williams as a disruptive move with far more downside than upside. The upside is unquantifiable. The downside is relegation stemming from the loss of momentum the squad has acquired since the removal of Duffer and the inability of both the new manager and squad to come to terms with the requirements of the other and execute; coupled with the possible loss of Sheehan if he exits.
At this point, weighing the balance, I see the hiring of Williams as a disruptive move with far more downside than upside. The upside is unquantifiable. The downside is relegation stemming from the loss of momentum the squad has acquired since the removal of Duffer and the inability of both the new manager and squad to come to terms with the requirements of the other and execute; coupled with the possible loss of Sheehan if he exits.
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CroJack
Key Player
Over the past 18 months, this "limp dick lower league wanna be" has had the best goalscoring record of any of England's four divisions, including the Premier League. This season's 55 goals (the most of any club in League Two) is proof that Notts County's 107 goals in 2022/23 were no fluke - Luke Williams is the real deal when it comes to attacking football.
I think we can all agree that Jimmy Thelin and Kjetil Knutsen would be better options, but let's see what Luke Williams has to offer. If you ask me, I'd rather have a successful "cheap shit" from the lower leagues than a failed "expensive shit" from the higher leagues.
Football is a simple game. If the new man's ideas are simple, the team won't need time to adapt. By the way, according to some sources, our players have told the club hierarchy that they want Williams as their manager.
Sheehan is going to stay.
In my opinion, we need disruption.
Let's be honest, Sheehan's ball is not any different than Duff's. Sheehan has just been lucky with some injury time goals we scored and a red card to Rotherham, otherwise he wouldn't have harvested 11 but 5 points in the last 7 games.
Stoke 16, Swansea 8 shots
Swansea 10, Middlesbrough 9 shots
Swansea 10, Preston 9 shots
Southampton 11, Swansea 4 shots
Coventry 21, Swansea 12 shots
Swansea 10, WBA 10 shots
------------------------------------------
52 shots for, 78 shots against
Scored 7, conceded 12 goals
I disagree. I don't see any difference between Duff's and Sheehan's style of play.
We don't know if there will be a loss of momentum and we don't know how the team will react. Who knows, we might be pleasantly surprised.
When Swansea went and got Martin, they were recruiting the guy with the best possession stats in the entire league outside of Man City, and Martin definitely brought all that possession to Swansea, regardless of the step-up in class. It's just a shame that's all he brought.
By the same logic, in Williams Swansea have identified the country's most formidable attacking manager and if he brings that attack to Swansea then it's a great move, especially if it turns out Notts County's defensive question marks are more a matter of personnel than system.
Williams was probably #4 on my personal list, but when you look at some of the names the bookies were running with this feels like a positive move which is in keeping with Swansea's style.
By the same logic, in Williams Swansea have identified the country's most formidable attacking manager and if he brings that attack to Swansea then it's a great move, especially if it turns out Notts County's defensive question marks are more a matter of personnel than system.
Williams was probably #4 on my personal list, but when you look at some of the names the bookies were running with this feels like a positive move which is in keeping with Swansea's style.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
At that level, with those players, against the defensive systems he had to deal with. If he was such a great manager/coach why not tighten up the defensive system.
Let's be honest ... Sheehan is different from Duffer ... he's getting results. There's better match management. There's better use of players - although he's still to get Cullen in his best position. All with an adverse set of fixtures biased away. Don't dismiss what he's done. The Rotherham match was his first match after Duffer. He had had little chance to De-Duffer the squad. Regardless of the circumstances within the match, we won when the moral in the team after a string of poor performances under Duffer was at a low.
There are only three managers in the Club's history with a record of 50% or better: Walter Whittaker (1912-14), Roberto Martinez, ... Sheehan. Martinez is the standout as he had that record over 126 games. Sheehan is top has he currently has >50%. There are some big names in our list of managers and the best of those only achieved a record of 40 to 45%. Duffer's record is 28.57%. With the same squad Sheehan is distinctly different from Duffer.
Sheehan definitely did better than expected, but I'm not sure the pattern of results is sustainable. Over his tenure, Swansea have averaged 1.01xG, while Swansea's opponents have averaged 1.62xG. That tells me that over even half a season, Sheehan's Swans would lose more than they would win.
In terms of xG alone, Swansea should have lost to WBA (0.67 SWA v 1.9 WBA) and Coventry (2.61 COV v 1.2 SWA), who also out-shot Swansea 21-12. The draw with Stoke also went against the grain, with Stoke leading xG 2.78 v 0.67 and outshooting Swansea 16-8.
I like Sheehan, I'm glad he's staying on and developing more as a coach, but he's been riding his luck. None of these results have been convincing, it's been smash'n'grab all the way. The points against Stoke, Preston and Coventry came from goals scored in the 89th minute or later. That's good because it shows the team does not give up, but it's not realistic to expect that kind of last-minute magic on a regular basis.
In terms of xG alone, Swansea should have lost to WBA (0.67 SWA v 1.9 WBA) and Coventry (2.61 COV v 1.2 SWA), who also out-shot Swansea 21-12. The draw with Stoke also went against the grain, with Stoke leading xG 2.78 v 0.67 and outshooting Swansea 16-8.
I like Sheehan, I'm glad he's staying on and developing more as a coach, but he's been riding his luck. None of these results have been convincing, it's been smash'n'grab all the way. The points against Stoke, Preston and Coventry came from goals scored in the 89th minute or later. That's good because it shows the team does not give up, but it's not realistic to expect that kind of last-minute magic on a regular basis.
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Good news for Cullen - Williams prefers a 3-4-1-2 formation, so Cullen has double the chance of starting at striker. Williams has also played 3-3-3-1 and 3-4-3 diamond this season. It'll be interesting to see how he sees these players fitting in. If he joins of course, it's still not official.
CroJack
Key Player
I never said he was perfect, but shooting a lot and scoring lots of goals would be a huge improvement on Potter, Cooper, Martin, Duff and...Sheehan.
Yanky, It is a mistake to draw conclusions based on a statistically small sample taken out of context. Sheehan has been in charge for seven games. Duff had a good run from mid-September to early October, winning four games, drawing one, and losing none...but that doesn't mean he is a great manager.
Patino on the bench, Cullen playing as a wing back, Humhreys as a right-back, Darling (our most dangerous man up front) on the bench...
Not so much poor performances as poor results.
We deserved to lose to Leicester (premier League bound), Ipswich (lower league manager!) and Leeds (much better team than ours).
Against Watford we played ok, and then Ken Sema scored a stunner. Watford won 1:0.
Against Sunderland we played from the 30th minute with ten men (Charlie Patino red card) and managed to keep a clean sheet.
Against in form Hull we played 2:2.
We should have beaten Huddersfield had it not been for that unlucky Cabango own goal. 22 to 5 shots.
We beat Blackburn away.
When you have a look at Duff's last 8 fixtures, 3 of them were against top three (lost all of them), and the other three against strong teams Sunderland, Hull and Watford (drew two and lost one 1:0 to a stunner).
Again, it is a mistake to draw conclusions based on a statistically small sample taken out of context.
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CroJack
Key Player
Exactly.
We might be lucky and get the best of both if they work together, which looks likely as Sheehan is said to be staying. I'm absolutely in favour of possession football providing it's linked to positive and incisive attacking play. Williams has, more or less, achieved that in his lower league stint with County. Remember that Martinez drew criticism for his lack of defensive nous but it was generally accepted that if we conceded 2 or 3 goals we'd score 3 or 4 to win. Entertaining days were those. 
Maybe Williams will be something similar but I'd still like to see more stability in defence. I guess we'll all start to find out shortly.
Maybe Williams will be something similar but I'd still like to see more stability in defence. I guess we'll all start to find out shortly.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
xG's ... Predictive analytics .... a sophisticated way of saying "taking a punt" or "taking a guess". Basically some mathematical magic that, we hope, will allow us to predict the future. It's all fucking make believe, as clearly we've been beating the casino ... consistently. And since Casino's can never be beaten the "magic" here is broken and xGs in the real world don't count for shit ... they are a correlation (if that) to history not a causation of the future. And as @CroJack stated ... it's a mistake to draw conclusions based on a statistically small sample taken out of context.
What this information does say, or suggests, is that Sheehan as been squeezing more juice out of the fruit than expected or perhaps is even in the fruit to start with - a positive. It could also be stated that he has over performed based on the analytics - a positive; or that the team has over performed under him - also a positive. A coach's job is to maximize the return from resources at hand - nothing more - and that's being achieved.
At the end of 90 minutes, there are no points for style, there are points for scoring more than the opponent. Do we give a shit whether the ref gave us a soft penalty, or the opposition's star #9 missed a hat full of open goals, or we banked the winner in off the keeper's rear end, or we defied xG's ... no we don't. Sheehan was given one responsibility ... get results. There may have been secondary deliverables, but fundamentally the situation was we're sliding into the shit at the very least stop the slide. Harvesting more than 50% of points in an adverse series of fixtures he has done more than stop the slide.
What we do know, if we try to make any sense of the xG story, is that each player, the team as a whole, the squad as a whole, the squad and Sheehan as a whole have turned around and performed better than xG predicted. Is it better to be lucky or good? Sheehan may have a good smattering of both. And at the end of the day ... we're a hell of a lot better under Sheehan than Duffer ... and I would argue more entertaining and purposeful but that's purely subjective. Instead of dreading the next Duffer game, I am looking forward to the next Sheehan game. The only aberration in the mix has been Soton ... an outlier or the truth? Time will tell. Over time everything reverts to the mean ... what's the mean?
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Entertaining debate this, lads, with some really good points being made everywhere. Personally I'm enjoying the read.
It is better to be good. Luck runs out.
Had Sheehan's Swans asserted dominance in any of those seven games I might prefer him as manager too, but that hasn't happened. The games have been entertaining, but it would be nice to be entertained and feel like the result was less of a crapshoot.
Napoleon once stated that he preferred his Generals to be lucky rather than good. When told that a particular individual was an extremely able commander, Napoleon's reply was along the lines of: "that may be but is he lucky?" However, I agree with what @jackodiamonds posted in that luck will run out at some point.
Look at any sport and the most successful teams/individuals are both lucky and talented. It is where talent is equal that luck steps in and determines the winner. We can but hope that Luke Williams is indeed capable AND lucky. Should we, as fans, be that fortunate with our latest manager, we just might witness the genesis of our return to former glories. We can but hope, eh?
Look at any sport and the most successful teams/individuals are both lucky and talented. It is where talent is equal that luck steps in and determines the winner. We can but hope that Luke Williams is indeed capable AND lucky. Should we, as fans, be that fortunate with our latest manager, we just might witness the genesis of our return to former glories. We can but hope, eh?
KVetch
Key Player
Sheehan did a excellent job but his last comment about "management need to hire a coach this week" made it sound like he didn't want the job. Could be misinterpreted though. I'm surprised we got Williams in spite of his Russel Martin connection. If he doesn't work out maybe we can go back to Sheehan. I bet some lower league clubs would take a look at him.
KVetch
Key Player
And Ghengis Khan said "Conquering the world on horseback is easy; it is dismounting and governing that is hard."Napoleon once stated that he preferred his Generals to be lucky rather than good. When told that a particular individual was an extremely able commander, Napoleon's reply was along the lines of: "that may be but is he lucky?" However, I agree with what @jackodiamonds posted in that luck will run out at some point.
Look at any sport and the most successful teams/individuals are both lucky and talented. It is where talent is equal that luck steps in and determines the winner. We can but hope that Luke Williams is indeed capable AND lucky. Should we, as fans, be that fortunate with our latest manager, we just might witness the genesis of our return to former glories. We can but hope, eh?
The xG isn't a perfect measurement but it's the best formula right now. I like the way we've played the last few games under Sheehan. The quick build up looked good, I think it can be improved on. Hopefully Williams can get the most out of our squad. Having 3 different managers in a season can be tough on the players.