Don't forget your predictions for Week 8, folks.
Thought (hoped) that pin was too blunt for this week!Done.
Nah....I will stick to my pin!I'm not participating in this season's Forum Prediction League, but this might be interesting to you. As you all know xG (expected goals) is an important metric in football statistics for calculating quality chances one team creates. Every week there are updated tables with PL teams current league position, xPTS (expected points position), xG (expected goals) teams should have scored, and xGA (expected goals against) teams should have conceded. Here are updated tables.
Current league position, goals scored and goals concededAs expected, Manchester City top the xPTS table.
View attachment 971
xPTS league position (how many points they should have earned )
View attachment 972
xG (how many goals they should have scored)
View attachment 973
xGA (how many goals they should have conceded)
View attachment 974
What is interesting here is that some PL teams have been pretty lucky and some other unlucky.
West Ham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth should have been in bottom six, and not in top ten. Chelsea and Man United should have been in top four, Southampton and Everton in top ten. Arsenal should have been in 12th place, and Watford in 14th.
Of course, creating quality chances doesn't garantee you success, you have to have quality strikers to convert chances you create, but still it's a good indicator of one team's quality. Also, if you prevent opposition to create many chances against you but your defence sucks, then you'll concede from every chance they create.
When we look at the xG table it's surprising that Southampton are fifth-best and Leicester fourth-worst for chances created. So how can we explain their league positions? Well, if we look at the xGA table then we can see that Leicester have second-best defence in the PL. They defend well and are clinical up front (Vardy has been on fire under Rodgers). Southampton have mid-table defence but are ineffective in front of goal.
Arsenal, Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford are worst defensively. They all create many chances, but the first three will start losing points more regularly if they don't fix their defensive problems.
Having xG in mind how would this week's predictions look like?
Brighton 1:2 Tottenham
Burnley 1:1 Everton
Liverpool 2:1 Leicester
Norwich 1:1 Aston Villa
Watford 1:1 Sheffield United
West Ham 2:1 Crystal Palace
Manchester City 3:1 Wolves
Southampton 2:3 Chelsea
Arsenal 2:2 Bournemouth
Newcaste United 0:2 Manchester United
Don't I know it! Last time I tried that I cracked my computer screen.In order of priority
Gut feeling
Crystal ball
Football knowledge
Playing with a pin is too dangerous for a clumsy twonk like me !
Both betting sindicates and bookies use xG to make their predictions. Brighton's owner has made hundreds of millions pounds on betting by using advanced analytical tools.Let's see how CJ gets on, then we can work on a plan to pauperise the bookies!!
It is a misunderstanding that the predictions made in my previous post were my predictions. They are predictions according to the expected goals model. When I make predictions I always give a slight advantage to home teams and I look at the current form. I would have given 1:0 win to Burnley against Everton, and I would have given a win to Arsenal against Bournemouth. Also, I was sure Chelsea were going to win. They play excellent football and are underrated.PS: @CroJack your selections would have got you 8 points, which is two better than I managed!
Apart from Klopp's Liverpool.The PL is unpredictable. It all depends on which of the rich kids decide to play on the day.
Yes, I know, I referred to them as your predictions for convenience.It is a misunderstanding that the predictions made in my previous post were my predictions
Even they needed Mr Reliable Milner who ALWAYS shows up.Apart from Klopp's Liverpool.