Championship Round 11 - Expected Goals & Points

[CroJack]

WBA 2 : 3 Swansea

Expected Goals

WBA 5.45 : 2.60 Swansea

Fair Result

WBA 5 : 2 Swansea

Swansea pink, WBA blue
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We were lucky to win this game, should've lost it.

Hull 0 : 2 Luton

Expected Goals

Hull 0.45 : 1.25 Luton

Fair Result

Hull 0 : 1 Luton


Coventry 1 : 0 Middlesbrough

Expected Goals

Coventry 1.45 : 1.10 Middlesbrough

Fair Result

Coventry 1 : 1 Middlesbrough


Bristol 1 : 2 QPR

Expected Goals

Bristol 2.70 : 3.45 QPR

Fair Result

Bristol 2 : 3 QPR


Blackpool 0:1 Norwich

Expected Goals

Blackpool 1.80 : 3.05 Norwich

Fair Result

Blackpool 1 : 3 Norwich


Blackburn 2 : 1 Millwall

Expected Goals

Blackburn 1.50 : 2.30 Millwall

Fair result

Blackburn 1 : 2 Millwall


Cardiff 1 : 1 Burnley

Expected Goals

Cardiff 1.90 : 2.10 Burnley

Fair result

Cardiff 1 : 2 Burnley


Sunderland 0 : 0 Preston

Expected Goals

Sunderland 1.10 : 1.05 Preston

Fair Result

Sunderland 1 : 1 Preston


Sheffield United 1 : 1 Birmingham

Expected Goals

Sheffield United 3.40 : 2.50 Birmingham

Fair Result

Sheffield United 3 : 2 Birmingham


Rotherham 0 : 2 Wigan

Expected Goals

Rotherham 0.95 : 2.60 Wigan

Fair Result

Rotherham 0 : 2 Wigan


Reading 3 : 1 Huddersfield

Expected Goals

Reading 1.85 : 0.95 Huddersfield

Fair result

Reading 1 : 0 Huddersfield


Stoke 0 : 4 Watford

Expected Goals

Stoke 0.90 : 5.30 Watford

Fair Result

Stoke 0 : 5 Watford

 

[CroJack]

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[CroJack]

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[Yankee_Jack]

Benda's is going to keep our xGoals Against and actuals at odds ... hopefully

 

[CroJack]

When it comes to expected and real points the majority of Championship clubs are there where they deserve to be (marked with the blue colour).

Norwich, Burnley, Swansea, Preston, Millwall and Cardiff have exactly as many xPoints as real points.
For the other clubs in this group the difference in xPoints and real points is insignificant.



Eight clubs in the group below are anomalies (marked with the red colour).

WBA, Middlesbrough and Birmingham are underachievers
whilst Reading, Blackburn, Wigan, Rotherham and Hull are overachievers.

There are different reasons why some clubs underperform and overperform.
In WBA case they concede too many goals, Middlesbrough don't score enough and concede many, and Birmingham don't score enough.

Reading, Blackburn and Wigan have just been lucky.
They score from every chance they create.
Hats off to their attacking players but that's unsustainable in the long run.
Hull are lucky to have 4 more points than they deserve. They concede from almost every chance they give away.

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