12 goals in 24 games v. 12 goals in 10 games

[CroJack]

I think we can all agree that Swansea football has been poor lately. Some think it's fatigue, some blame the owners for the lack of investment and the lack of squad depth, and some think it's all Cooper's fault.

To Hourihane, or not to Hourihane, that is the question...
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Some stats

Before Hourihane's arrival:

Conceded 0.5 goals per game, scored 1.2 goals per game

After Hourihane's arrival:

Conceded 1.2 goals per game, scored 1.5 goals per game

The fact is that our defence has not been as good as before Hourihane's arrival, though we have scored more goals per game. The trouble is that the difference between conceded/scored has deteriorated, from 0.7 to 0.3. What does it mean? Well, before we needed only one goal on average to win our games, and now we need two goals or more. Before, we were more likely to win our games, and now we are more likely to draw them. This will inevitably mean that the Swans won't be able to earn as many points as Norwich, Brentford and Watford until the end of the season, which will certainly cost them the top two place and automatic promotion.

So what has happened?
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From the beginning og the season up til Hourihane's arrival we used to play these two formations.



We used to keep our defensive shape no matter whether we played from the back or not. Also, there was a natural connection between our back three and our midfield. Even when we were pressed high and forced to hoof the ball and lose possession, we were never really in a big trouble. We always had our defensive shape intact. Of course, we were not a free-scoring side, we didn't create many chances, but when we scored first we won our games. All of them.

When Hourihane arrived Cooper switched to 3-1-4-2 formation. Suddenly, our back three were not as protected as before - we stopped playing with double pivots in the defensive midfield. And even worse, we haven't had any defensive midfielders in the defensive midfield lately. Let me explain.

This is how we had a natural (though limited) attacking flow when we played 3-4-1-2 formation,
and 3-5-2 was not any different, whilst we at the same time kept our defensive shape





The things have changed when we switched to 3-1-4-2



And that formation in our case often looks like this:


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It's not difficult to see what's wrong with it. There is a huge gap in the midfield. Grimes often plays as a centre-back, Naughton and Manning as full-backs, there is no one in the midfield to receive the passes from the back three, and the front four (or even six) can only be reached by playing long balls to them. It's easy for the opposition to force us to hoof the ball if they press our back three, and if we lose the ball up front, which we, by the way, do more often than not, it's easy to attack us through the middle of the park. Woodman doesn't have any passing options and is either forced to hoof the ball or to make an error.

This is how it looks in a real life


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In the screenshot above you can see Grimes dropping to the centre-back position. Where is Naughton? Woodman doesn't really have passing options so he is forced to hoof the ball. Of course, we lose possesion and are immediately under pressure. In the counter-attack that follows we have 7 players who are too high up the pitch and forced to track back, and we don't have any defensive shape. This is what Huddersfield exploited and scored 4 goals. And Bristol forced us to make three defensive errors.

 

[CroJack]

Not only we concede more, but the goals we score now are different
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Some stats

Before Hourihane's arrival 70 % of our goals were scored either after runs or passes through the middle of the pitch, or after quick switches of play by finding the space on the opposite side of the pitch to attack. Here are some typical examples:

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After the change of our formation we have scored only 3 out of 15 goals after a quick switches of play, which is 20 %, and none of the goals have been scored after the runs and passes through the middle of the pitch. And we are wondering why Lowe is not scoring anymore.

The goals we score now are the goals from lucky penalties, as well as from free-kicks, and also the goals we score after throw-ins and corner-kicks. With other words, set-pieces.

 

[CroJack]

A case study: Middlesbrough game

We attack here and Fulton passes the ball to Roberts who is under pressure. We lose possession.
Fulton can switch the play and pass the ball to Hourihane or pass it back to Naughton.
What is wrong here apart from Fulton forcing our move along the sideline?
1. Hourihane, who doesn't run towards Fulton into the empty space in the midfield to make himself available,
2. Grimes, who doesn't run into the empty space in the midfield to support our attack.


We attack and Smith gives the ball away.
There is again a huge empty area in the midfield, and either Fulton or Grimes should
be there to support our attack.


Ayew tries to find Hourihane in the Boro box, but he puts in a poor cross.
This is not a bg problem. The problem is that there are no Swansea players
in this huge empty space in front of the Boro box. Grimes should be there, recieve the ball and shoot.


Roberts puts in a cross into the Boro box, and Ayew tries to score from
a bicycle kick. A pass to Hourihane is a better option, but again, why is Grimes not there to support our attack?
We have six against 8 Boro players, so we don't need 4 to defend against 2 Boro players.
When we have situations like this one we have to commit more bodies up front.



Once again we attack along the sideline. This time it's Smith who tries to find Roberts. He makes a poor pass and we lose possession. Once again, there are any Swansea midfielders in that huge empty space in the midfield
to support our attack. Either Fulton or Grimes should be there.
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[CroJack]

This is a pure stupidity from Woodman. he can pass the ball either to Grimes or Guehi, but he hoofs it and we lose possession. Apart from Woodman, the three Swansea players are Guehi, Grimes and Cabango. You might ask where the hell is Naughton? Well, for the most part of the game Naughton played high up, virtually as a wing-back,
so Grimes had to drop back to receive the ball from Woodman and play as a centre-back. Stupid.
We didn't have a natural connection between Grimes and other midfielders who also pushed high.



And again. Woodman can pass the ball to either Cabango or Guehi, but he
hoofs it and we lose possession. I mean, wtf???



We attack here and Ayew has the ball. For some reason he passes the ball
back to Fulton, and not to Grimes who is free and in a much better position. He makes a poor pass and we lose possession.
This time Grimes is there to support our attack.


Hourihane has the ball and he passes it to Smith who is doing the righ move.
Once again, either Fulton or Grimes should run into that empty midfield area and support
our attack.



So now Smith can pass the ball back to Hourihane or to Ayew who is under pressure.
Fulton is too late to make the run into the empty space, and Grimes is nowhere near to receive the pass.
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[CroJack]

Both Smith and Fulton make good runs behind Boro's defence, and Hourihane tries to find Smith with a lobbed pass. His pass is poor, and we lose possession. The question is why don't we have any players in the empty midfield space? Grimes???



This time Hourihane tries to find Roberts who makes a good run behind Boro's defence. He
slightly overhits his pass and Boro's goalie collects the ball.
Once again, why is Grimes not in that emty area?


Here you can see how disconnected our back three are from the rest of the team. And Grimes is a centre-back here.
Where is Naughton? Where are Fulton, Smith and Manning?
Woodman hoofs it and this time he is lucky: we win the ball high up the pitch.



Ayew does the right thing here.
He runs into the empty midfield area and sends a lobbed pass to Hourihane
who runs behind Boro's defence. Grimes is, of course, our centre-back so he can't support this attack.
Also, Roberts should cut inside to receive the ball. We have enough protection on that flank.


Cabango should be in the middle, and Naughton should be there where Cabango is.
Woodman can pass the ball to either Cabango or Guehi, but he hoofs it and we lose possession.
Stupid.
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[CroJack]

I hoofing the ball really necessary here? Woodman is lucky, we win the ball high up the pitch and we keep possession. But he has three passing options here.


And again. Woodman hoofs it and we lose possession.


We do this often. We pass the ball to the players who are under pressure and can't control the ball.
Here is Hourihane who can't control the ball and we lose possession.
Why aren't there any Swansea players in that huge empty area?


Fulton makes an excellent run behind Boro's defence, but Ayew's pass is poor and we lose possession.


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[CroJack]

From another angle


Finally, we have some sort of defensive and attacking shape here.
Naughton is there where he should be, and both Smith and Grimes are in the defensive midfield.
Guehi runs with the ball.


Guehi passes the ball to Ayew. Smith and Grimes run forward.


Ayew passes the ball back to Grimes.
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[CroJack]

And Grimes sends a great through ball to Hourihane who is offside.
This is an excellent example of how attacking through the middle can be effective.
It completely destroys oppositions high press and their defensive shape. A littler bit
better timing and it's a great chance.


No need to do this. There are better passing options here.
We lose possession.






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[CroJack]

Again Grimes as centre-back.


This is interesting


Where are Fulton and Smith???
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[CroJack]

This is our 3-1-4-2 formation
Not good when we attack, and makes us vulnerable to counter-attacks through the middle






We win the ball and start to attack.


Guehi runs with the ball


A direct forward pass to Ayew
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[CroJack]

This looks good


But




Why do we keep doing this?




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[CroJack]

But


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[CroJack]

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[CroJack]

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[CroJack]

Conclusion
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We either have to ditch 3-1-4-2 formation or:

• tell Naughton to play as a centre-back and not a full-back,​
• let Grimes be a defensive midfielder, and not a centre-back,​
• we need more defensive discipline from our two attacking midfielders who don't connect with our back three and Grimes at all,​
• we need to exploit empty space in the middle more often than we do,​
• we need to stop hoofing the ball and play more often from the back,​
• we need to stop passing the ball to the players who are under pressure.​

What I saw during the Middlesbrough game is the same what I saw during the Blackburn, Forest and Huddersfield games. A disjointed midfield.

 

[ivoralljack]

Great stuff as usual, CJ, and a lot of work. I've come to it late just before bed, so I'll do it justice tomorrow.

 

[Behindthegoal]

Thanks CJ, all good stuff.
How can professionals, on and off the pitch, not see this?

 

[Yankee_Jack]

@CroJack .... excellent analysis.

As I have comments before, there is always a reason why a player at a Prem club becomes available for loan, and then accepts a loan to a Championship club .... and it has nothing to do with what Andy Pandy could offer

I have tried to follow Hourihane when we lose possession and the other team breaks forward. First he’s not one to bust a gut to get back, or his busting is slower than the tea lady’s. Also, he’s not defensively robust, I don’t see him putting his body about, or on the line. When he plays, he presents a net deficit. What we gain by the odd dead ball taker, we lose with a weaker player when not in possession (which is a lot of the game). Whichever side Hourihane is on, the WB doesn’t get the cover and assistance he is used to. Roberts can take corners and free kicks from out wide. And has been pointed out we attack differently and not as effectively.

the shallowing out of our effective GD per game is massive. An area where we were dominant in the league has be diminished.

Hourihane arrived as the shinny new penny and we consciously or otherwise tried to do use him, and he’s not exactly the round peg for a round hole. Sue, when he arrived he had a significant impact in a few games, it no player can keep that up game after game ... otherwise he’d still be with and playing for his home club.

i’d like to see his passing stats. In the last few games he has been the source of quite a few sloppy passes and passes to nowhere that have lost us possession.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

I seem to be having trouble editing posts on this page. Anybody else having the same problem?

 

[ivoralljack]

Nothing here. Slightly slow to load after all CJ's painstaking work but nowt other than that.