Week Three - Championship Expected Goals And Expected Points Tables

[CroJack]

Expected Goals, or xG, are the number of goals a team (or a player) should have scored considering the number and type of chances they had in a match.




Expected Points, or xPTS, are the number of points a team should have earned considering the number and type of chances it had in a match.
This is called a justice table.

Example:

Team A creates a lot of high quality chances, but somehow misses them all or opposition goalkeeper makes some high quality saves during a match.
Team B creates nothing, but scores a lucky goal from a deflected shot or the goalkeeper from Team A makes a huge error.
Team A is awarded 3 xPTS, and team B 0 xPTS. In real life Team A has lost the game, and Team B has won it.
Both Expected Goals and Expected Points are important because they show us trends in football. One team can be lucky in a couple of games, but not during whole season.
Teams who create many chances, and allow only few chances against them, tend to finish higher in the league table at the end of a season.
We can see in the table below that Brentford should have won all three games, and in the table above that Millwall and Monk's Sheffield Wednesday are so far the poorest teams when it comes to quality of chances created.




It's still early in the season, and we'll know much more about the Championship clubs' creativity when 23 games will have been played.
Next time, after week 4 games will have been played, I'll add expected goal difference. ​

 

[Behindthegoal]

Keep up the excellent work CJ

 

[CroJack]

The best and the worst defences in the Championship so far





​

So far, Swansea allow only 0,54 expected goals against, which is outstanding. Our three musketeers at the back have been excellent, and even Woodman is collecting crosses in our box. Everybody's talking about Rodon and Guehi, but I must mention Cabango who has matured and developed into an excellent centre-back. Big credit goes to the whole team for defending as a team and for their tireless pressing.

Has our excellent defending something to do with Allan Tate being Cooper's assistant manager? What do you think?

 

[Yankee_Jack]

Tate is having an influence ... has to be

 

[ivoralljack]

He probably is. Some people often make better coaches than players. I was never Tatey's greatest fan when he played. I absolutely loved his whole-hearted commitment but, without going into detail, he fell well short of being what I would regard as a top defender and made MANY mistakes.

One case in point, which I will never forget because I was screaming at him from my seat in the East stand, was when we played Toon in a Championship game. I think Toon were promoted that year but we were winning 1-0 with a few minutes left and they were attacking the away end. The ball was moved wide to their winger and for some reason our FB was missing. The winger moved along the goal line with the ball and Tatey came out to face him and close him down. But, inexplicably, all Tatey did was stand in no-mans' land on the edge of the box and allowed the winger all the time in the world to pick his cross. Andy Carroll said ta very much and it was 1-1.

WHY did Tatey not rush towards the danger and pressure the cross? It was the obvious and necessary thing to do but, for reasons only known to himself, he chose to stand off and allow the cross to find the most dangerous head in league football at the time.

On another occasion I was sat in the West stand immediately in front of Leighton James who was watching with a friend as we played Bristol City. Leighton tells his mate that Tatey was going to struggle in the game; that he would never cope with the movement and pace of his striker and that he'd get taken to the cleaners. Exactly what happened and we lost the game - I think it was 1-3. It was actually an education for me to listen to Leighton's comments during the game as he told his mate what Tatey was doing wrong; often predicting a mistake in positioning, or whatever, before it happened.

But of course you don't need to have been a great player to be a good coach. Take golf for instance. Years ago I remember the top pros of the time, people such as Gary Player, Nicklaus and others, using a guy called John Jacobs to iron out wrinkles in their game. Amazing! Jacobs was NEVER a top player and never did anything of note in the game. Yet players with ten times his ability would seek his advice to improve their own play. I never could figure that out.

All I will say is that I hope that Tatey will become a better coach than he was a player and have a good future with us. He deserves that for being a top JB over the years.