Swans Most Deadly

jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
I consider 0.5 goals-per-game to be elite. It's what Bony MK I achieved with Swansea for example. Last season, Joel Piroe managed 0.57 gpg, and Obafemi 0.53. Hard standards to maintain.

This season, Piroe is down to 0.32 which is still ok (0.3 is what an "average" striker produces and I'd say the lowest limit to be considered effective - think Danny Graham in Swansea's first Prem season). Obafemi is on 0.24.

Neither player is particularly deadly. You know who is? I was surprised at this myself:

Olivier Ntcham.

Ntcham has 4 goals on 9.4 shots and 705 mins of game time (~7.8 matches worth). That's 0.51 gpg. Even better is his goals-per-shot figure. This tells us how lethal a finisher a player is. Ntcham has a team-best 0.43. He almost scores every second shot. At the moment he takes an average 1.2 shots per game. If I'm Martin, I'm asking him to hit 3.

The top five Championship goalscorers each have 9: Brereton, Ndiaye, Rodriguez, Yates and McBurnie:

Brereton 0.46 gpg, 0.15 goals-per-shot
Ndiaye 0.54 gpg, 0.26 gps
Rodriguez 0.64 gpg, 0.29 gps
Yates 0.49 gpg, 0.26 gps
McBurnie 0.84 gpg, 0.25 gps

McBurnie is doing amazingly well. The same goal tally with only ~ two thirds of the game time of the others. Rodriguez is showing his Prem class, but Ntcham is a real dark horse in Swansea's attack with figures that comfortably slot in to this list, and a more clinical finisher with 0.43 gps than any of the top 5.

I'd say put him on the field at the 60 minutes mark, tell him to shoot as often as possible and watch Swansea grab a few more late wins.
 

CroJack

Key Player
I know about Ntcham but didn't want to talk about it because he scores from low quality chances (25 yards speculative shots, some of them deflected), which is not sustainable. He's just been lucky. On the other side McBurnie scores from high quality chances in the opposition box, many of these chances are from 7-10 yards. The problem with Piroe is that he, just like Ntcham, shoots from outside the opposition box, which again means he, just like Ntcham, tries to score from low quality chances.

McBurnie has also missed many clear-cut chances but, as you know, that's not a huge problem for Sheffield United - they create plenty of them.
 

jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
Piroe's efficiency is dreadful this season. Not that anyone needs numbers to show that, but his goals-per-shot is 0.10 atm (compared with 0.24 last season). Low-percentage chances for sure. I'd still like to see Ntcham keeping shooting until he runs out of luck.
 
Top Bottom