Russia

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Horrendous news today about the Red's invasion of Ukraine. Not going to labour this as we will all have seen the news bulletins. All the West has done so far is to promise sanctions and we must impose as many of those as we can no matter how trivial. Max Verstappen has already called for the cancellation of the Russian Grand Prix whilst Seb Vettel has said that he will not take part even if, unthinkably, it goes ahead. The football final due to take place in St Petersburg is already under threat from EUFA. This brutal regime must be ostracised in every way possible.

Putin is an unbalanced madman and is challenging the NATO countries. Matching him with warfare must be a last resort and I hope it never comes to that. But he must not be allowed to get away with this. Nato failed to challenge Putin when he annexed the Crimea and this emboldened him to think he can get away with his present actions - much like the situation prior to World War II when Hitler's Germany annexed Czechoslovakia and Chamberlain and the Allies opted for appeasement instead of showing strength. Appeasement NEVER works with insane bullies who regard it as a sign of weakness.

And where is Sleepy Joe Biden in all this? Putin timed his attack to perfection when one of the weakest American Presidents in living memory is in office. For sure Donald Trump was a very flawed man but I have to wonder if Putin would have chanced his arm against him. I really don't know the answer to that but I suspect not. Biden gives every appearance of being a refugee from the film set of "The Walking Dead" and I am concerned about his ability to deal with this situation. The underlying problem is that China is taking more than a passing interest in proceedings and will have their own agenda if any weakness is shown by NATO.

Meantime, short of open warfare, the Western Allies must impose each and every sanction available to them, even those involving sport, no matter how small fry that might appear. Russia must be bankrupted as soon as is humanly possible to try and prevent them from escalating their actions. It's a tragic day but remember that World War II was far more tragic, which is the price that is paid when bullies and tyrants are allowed to get their way.

PS: Just remember that once Hitler got his way with Czechoslovakia he didn't stop there. NEITHER WILL PUTIN. The Baltic countries, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania will attract his maniacal eye along with the likes of Poland etc etc. Sooner or later this KGB bandit and murderer will have to be faced down. It might as well be now.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Biden has actually been out in front of this from the get go. He has taken the unorthodox step of releasing intelligence to the public, and preempted every step of Putin's along the way.

From a military strategic perspective, Ukraine is in a difficult geographic position. The Black Sea is a limiting body of water and the US military's offensive force is primarily through carrier groups with tremendous fire power but they need open water and would be highly vulnerable in the Black Sea. Moving ground forces into place would also be similarly difficult except by air. Weaponry has been delivered to Ukraine and I can only assume that this will continue logistics and theater of war permitting. Is it enough ... there's never enough of that sort of thing.

Biden cannot act offensively in a military posture. As President, he is handcuffed in that regard, as only Congress has the power to declare war. A President can act without Congressional permission to defend the US, which probably includes an Article 5 action; but Ukraine is not a NATO member.

As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, Biden / USA cannot mobilize military force in their defense without a declaration of war. I presume this presumably goes for other NATO members - France, UK, Germany etc.

Ironically, Ukraine's best and only option defensively would have been to join NATO - heretofore, but that's too late now. That would have really fucked up Putin's calculations and put a kibosh on the bullshit. I agree that this mother fucker needs to be recalibrated. Much better now than later

Russia has the GDP of Italy but without the upsides. It needs to be castrated economically. Removing Russia from the SWIFT banking system would have had an immediate crippling effect on cash flows in hard currency. I have it on good authority that this has been seriously considered but tabled for now. This past week the entire US banking system has been going through cyber attack defense drills. It is expected that Russia's first sortie on western countries or NATO block will be in the cyber realm. I say bring it on, because that for me would be an overt act of war, and would thereby trigger the defense action on the part of the USA and free Biden militarily - not only conventionally but also through cyber command. Apparently, the USA has an extremely potent offensive cyber capability - it's never been used, as far as we know, but I wouldn't want to be a target of it.

Seizing all Russian assets in hard currencies would also have a major impact - but I'm not sure what that would require legally in every country as it would need to be a coordinated USA / UK / European / Singapore etc operation. Such confiscation coupled with denying global cash flows through SWIFT would have a major impact. Let's face it ... nobody wants to be holding Rubels today.

From here on out Ukraine is going to be the soil on which the West / NATO fights a cold war against Russia. Resistance forces are going get funded, supported, equipped with all sorts of assets. It will be brutal and bloody. However, the fight does not have to stay within Ukraine's borders. Ukraine is not Afghanistan. Moscow is not that far away - a hop, skip, and a jump in military terms or resistance fighter terms. And I am sure there are other targets much closer against which a small team of well trained resistance fighters could deliver tactical blows - get in, get done, get out. This would immediately change the calculus of the situation. It's only when the bully gets a black eye do they back off.

And as for Trump, he was giving Putin a blow-job from day 1. Trump held up armaments for Ukraine authorized by Congress as a matter of law, which spawned the first impeachment. Trump would have not done anything to prevent Putin from annexing Ukraine.
 
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CroJack

Key Player
The situation is more complex than 'a Russian dictator and bully against us' story.

The West have made a strategic mistake by alienating and humiliating Russia (and Putin) for the past 30+ years. We have missed an opportunity to make Russia a partner and ally, and now we reap what we sow.

Putin is pretty clear here:

 

CroJack

Key Player
I agree with Peter:


"People and governments who now claim to despise Vladimir Putin for his aggression, for his suppression of freedom and for his corruption did not seem to be bothered by these things when his forerunner, Boris Yeltsin, did them.

It is a fascinating contrast.

Yeltsin, a former Communist machine politician with a far from perfect past, ordered tanks to shell his own parliament, while his police shot down demonstrators.

He savaged Chechnya. His own re-election to the presidency stank of money.

Corruption under his rule was so flagrant and grotesque that, when he quit, many Russians welcomed with relief the return of what the film-maker Stanislav Govoryukin called 'normal corruption'.

Yeltsin, often paralysed with drink, was a welcome guest in the West, even the White House, despite his embarrassing and crude behaviour.

But Yeltsin, unlike Putin, did nothing to control the oligarchs, allowed the West to continue its rape of Russia's economy, and – above all – made no protest against the humiliation of his country by the continued expansion of Nato eastwards across Europe.

This was by then a more or less openly anti-Russian alliance (who else is it directed against?).

It wasn't just that the West had promised not to do this, as numerous documents now show beyond doubt."

An excellent article worth reading.
 
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ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
There is much merit in the posts of both YJ and CJ. Politics is a viper's nest of corruption, greed and self interest. No side is 100% in the right and ALL sides have made mistakes. HOWEVER, it is not an excuse for that KGB gangster, Putin, to invade and wage war against a peaceful sovereign state and break all known international law. He is taking us to the brink of World War III and exacerbated his actions by threatening an instant and devastating response if anyone tries to interfere with his illegal actions. This can only mean he is prepared to use military force against NATO. There is NO excuse for this.

Putin has shown himself to be a liar and a completely untrustworthy person totally unfit to be a World leader. His agents have even openly committed murder on British soil and he believes himself to be untouchable. Well, he is WRONG. When the sanctions bite deeply enough and isolated Russia is almost brought to ruin, his own oligarchs might decide enough is enough.......
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
If he is successful with this power grab in Ukraine, then Romania, Poland, Estonia and Latvia are next in-line. There are NATO states in that mix. He needs to be crippled economically now and have internal counter-forces provide a second front ... before we have to put the boot in. The boot is going to have to be applied sooner or later. The US doesn't spend 800 billion a year on defense for stuff to polish ... what keeps the military / industrial complex humming is high utility.

On an aside, in 2018, I took a walk from Victoria Station to Sloane Square and then to Knightsbridge in London. The last time I had been in those areas, 40 years ago, the prevailing accent was clearly native to London, with the odd, Scot, Welsh, Irish notes, and of course Arabs were sighted. In 2018, block after, block, corner pub after corner pub, I heard nothing but Eastern European accents and banter in those languages. Now I can't tell Russian from Polish from whatever, but, there are a predominance of people floating in money in the what used to be a "normal" part of town.
 

CroJack

Key Player
HOWEVER, it is not an excuse for that KGB gangster, Putin, to invade and wage war against a peaceful sovereign state and break all known international law.
Agreed. But it seems this KGB gangster is ready to use nuclear weapons, and all of this could and should have been avoided. Has it been absolutely necessary to push for Ukraine to become a NATO member?
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack ... the only way to have avoided this is for Ukraine to have joined NATO. It would have raised the entry above Putin's willingness to gamble ... unless he was feeling suicidal. I don't think the main NATO block countries want Ukraine in as they offer nothing in return militarily speaking, but Ukraine clearly had a need to come under the umbrella.

Putin was hell bent on doing what he's just done. All of his negotiation points and claims were just to delay and obfuscate. Even recent his claims of providing security for Russian enclaves on the eastern part of Ukraine are blarney ... you don't need 195K troops along the entire border to occupy one small peace of land as a security force.

For comparison, in 2003 the US led coalition sent in 177k troops into Iraq. Putin mobilized 195K and pulled units from as far east as Vladivostok. Iran supposedly had a military worthy of a fight. Does Ukraine? Putin connived with Trump to stop armaments and military aid from flowing into Ukraine the US. All of this has been planned and in the works for sometime.

Putin's threat that he is a nuclear power is laughable. Yes, he is, but so what. Does he really think that him pushing a button would somehow preserve his wretched life. Does he really think that NATO have not war-gamed this out ad-nauseum. Does he really not understand that every Russian submarine is currently being tracked wherever they are in the world to pin point accuracy or that every missile silo on Russian soil is being targeted by overwhelming counter force.

What is a nuclear threat going to do to a team of Ukrainian resistance fighters moving under the radar, slipping through the shadows. Putin is as vulnerable to that sort of thing as any other country is and he's just given 40+ million people a reason to become a resistance fighter. 0.5% of that population would standup 200K fighters. At the end of the day its a numbers game ... and what Putin gains out of this is nothing of real, tangible value ... the numbers are against him. The first set of numbers ... how to equip and organize resistance in a country that is rapidly going collapse from the initial onslaught.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Agreed. But it seems this KGB gangster is ready to use nuclear weapons, and all of this could and should have been avoided. Has it been absolutely necessary to push for Ukraine to become a NATO member?
As an independent, peace-keeping country, Ukraine has every right to want to become a part of NATO if it so wishes. That said, my understanding is that this would be several years hence in any event. We in the West know that we have no wish to become embroiled in another war but madman Putin isn't interested in that. He just wants to fulfil his own ambitions no matter what the cost.

No one in the West wants a war of any description let alone a war of nuclear proportions. BUT, if that is the route that Putin chooses to go, he should be aware that Russia is likely to fare far worse than the West. That said, there would be NO winners in a nuclear confrontation. The entire world would be losers and that is why this madman is so dangerous.

He is already a war criminal and has cost innocent men, women and children their lives. Putin is no better than a rabid dog that should be put down and it might not be the West that does it. It seems that there is a strong swell of public opinion in Russia against his actions and when some of the oligarchs realise that he is costing them literally billions, they might well weigh that against his ambitions.

As the saying goes: jaw jaw is better than war war. But you can't reason with a liar and a lunatic.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
On a slight tangent I've always been in favour of fracking. Our own shale gas reserves are sufficient for our needs for many, many years to come and, if we tapped into this resource, we would not be reliant on importing gas from abroad. Apart from this, fracking would create thousands of jobs whose taxes would help swell our public coffers. Win win.

But the main reason I favour fracking is because of what is happening today. We need our own source of energy so that we cannot be blackmailed or affected by any other country in this respect. But the woke nay-sayers had their way and we are vulnerable. This has to change for our own good. The chances of an earthquake here are far less than a threat from Russia as events have proved.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The trouble with fracking are the showers of micro-quakes that emanate from shallow strata where fracking has taken place. Texas is now being plagued with this.
 

CroJack

Key Player
If you really want to understand the Ukrainian crisis then please watch this Chicago University professor's lecture on Ukraine. This video is from 2015.

 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Assets have been frozen in the US and other countries. Russian banks are being cut off from the US banking system although still a party to Swift, which is the choice of European countries apparently. Around a Trillion dollars are now frozen perhaps more. Rubel crashed … rampant inflation to follow in Russia.

Russia is intent on murdering the Ukrainian President, his family and others in the political power pyramid.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Trillion dollars are now frozen perhaps more...
Which means a nuclear war. If the Western politicians think they can just like this steal a trillion dollars of Russian assets, cause a hyper inflation in Russia, and make the Russian people starve, then they are lunatics, and total political amateurs. Russia is not Libya and Putin is not Gaddafi. 10 nukes is enough to completely destroy all life in Europe, not to talk about 1000 or more...Also, don't forget that there are much worse people in Kremlin waiting to take over from Putin. Real bad guys who wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger and start the WWIII.

We simply don't have any other choice than give up on the NATO expansion towards the Russia borders, and we have to make an agreement with Russia about Ukraine's neutrality.

And the argument about how every sovereign country has the right to choose which military alliance it should be part of is not based on reality. If you are a small country bordering to a super power don't count on that choice. Even big countries like Mexico can't just decide to make an alliance with let's say China or Russia and suddenly point nukes towards the USA. What do you think the USA would do if such thing happened?
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The Russian billionaires are not going to sanction a nuclear strike. Their foreign assets would "melt" away literally. Not to mention the demise of themselves in Russia. There's one thing rich people hate more than anything, is the thought of becoming a poor person ... even if "poor" means still wealthier than most of us. But at least, on the long game, there is a chance that personal wealth, can be reclaimed .... if they are still alive, and the institution currently holding the frozen assets still exists.

If a billionaire lost 99% of net worth in the blink of an eye, they are still worth over 10 million. Not too shabby and certainly more than enough to live on more than comfortably. Better to play the long game and recover it all than act stupid in the short game and lose everything.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Quoting parts of what I read today:

Putin and his band of thieves don't believe in freedom but in slavery. There isn't a government in the Kremlin but a mafia. He's not running an administration but a protection racket. His first victims are the Russian people themselves. The wealth of a great nation has been ferreted abroad and hidden in a web of fraud. He has murdered hundreds and robbed millions.

We are already paying the price for the war in Ukraine and the price is going to get higher. If Putin succeeds, others will see that the rule of law is less important than the rule of force. None of this needed to happen. We have missed many moments to act and show clearly that we are serious.

In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia. Nothing changed. In 2014 Russia attacked Ukraine and captured Crimea. Nothing happened. Since then Putin has attacked an ammunition depot in Prague; tried to assassinate the prime minister of Montenegro and even used chemical weapons in Salisbury killing a British woman. Still ZERO!

All of us in the West should have woken up years ago. But if there was still any doubt about Putin, his not-so-veiled threat to NUKE countries standing in his way must end them for good. The man is deranged. Yesterdays sanctions are welcome but still insufficient. there must be more and they must be brutal and immediate.

Expel every Russian ambassador. They merely lie for Putin. Shut down his propaganda channels. (They do too). Ban Russia from hosting or participating in every international sporting and cultural event. Sever all global sponsorship deals with Russian firms. Lock them out of all international finance systems including SWIFT. Round up scores more Kremlin-linked oligarchs, seize their London homes and deport them and their families.

We must aim to bankrupt Moscow's war machine while funding Ukraine forces so effectively that Putin's troops quickly realise that he has led them to their doom. The Ukranian resistance must have every weapon and intelligence capability we can supply.

Ultimately, perhaps our greatest hope is the Russian people. Many are already aghast at this atrocity carried out in their name on their neighbours. Hundreds are bravely rallying in the streets at huge risk. (MY NOTE: and being carted off by the police as they do so!! Some regime, eh? You can forget free speech in Putin's Russia).

Perhaps when Russia's sons begin arriving home in coffins, those protests will erupt into an irresistible revolt which ends the dark era of Putin and the grotesque lackeys who keep him in power.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
10 nukes is enough to completely destroy all life in Europe, not to talk about 1000 or more...
And 10 nukes is enough to completely destroy all life in Russia!! And meantime we have the US, Canada and Australia etc....... Who else does Russia have?
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Out in the car today and listening to the radio. Many ex-pat Russians phoned in to register their disgust at Putin's actions. Not in OUR name they said. Most interesting was a Russian MP of the Opposition party calling from Moscow. He referred to Putin's authoritarian and repressive government and said that there has been public opposition/demonstrations to him in over 50 cities - over 1800 people have been arrested and detained. So much for Putin, free speech and his gang of thugs.

Other Russians commented that he's only doing this to line the pockets of himself and his oligarch cohorts, bought with the blood of his own and Ukrainian troops. There is no doubt that there are many decent Russians who are horrified at what he's doing. The MP ventured the thought that, if these oligarchs saw that this conflict was going to cost them more in sanctions than they stood to gain by backing Putin, they might well turn against him - particularly if they see public opinion gaining momentum against the war. History, he warned, is against Putin where the Russian people will only tolerate so much before turning on their leaders.

Which means a nuclear war
So, does this mean that we have to do nothing and let him get his way? Surrender now to this threat and it will be a green light for Putin and every other lunatic thug to threaten nuclear war to get their way. It will mean that we can never challenge Putin ever again because he will always brandish the threat. If we have to make a stand then let's make it NOW. If he thinks that Russia will escape unscathed from a nuclear war then he's even more deranged than anyone believed. Kennedy stood up to Khruschev, another KGB thug, called his bluff and got him to back down during the Cuban missile crisis. The West is going to have to do the same again because Putin is forcing our hand.

Make no mistake, the USA can more than match Russia in terms of nuclear capability on its own. Add in the rest of the NATO alliance and Putin/Russia would be facing a shit storm that even his stupid mind couldn't envisage. He is already a war criminal and sooner or later will have to face the consequences of his actions. War criminals are usually hanged but I think his own will deal with him first if they think he's going to take them into a nuclear war against a superior power. The West doesn't want war of any description. It's his call. Problem is he's an unbalanced lunatic.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Quoting parts of what I read today:
That's an article from The Sun. I've read it too. It's all fine what they've written there, but it's unrealistic to expect the corrupt West to do anything about it. Of course, apart from stealing a trillion dollars of Russian money. And Ukraine? Ukraine was abandoned and betrayed by the West in 2014. The Ukrainian president has already expressed his disappointment with the lack of support from the West and NATO. He is ready to negotiate Ukraine's neutrality with Putin and give up on the future NATO membership.

Putin and his band of thieves don't believe in freedom but in slavery.
Putin and his clique are definitely thieves, but I know only a few politicians who aren't. So, nothing new here.
But slavery? The author of this article has obviously never been to Russia. He should visit it. Putin has transformed a poor communist country to a modern one. For what he's done for Russia Putin deserves every penny he has stolen. For what he has done to the opposition and the surrounding countries in the process he deserves to be hanged.

There isn't a government in the Kremlin but a mafia.
The Sun should have a more balanced approach:

"Boris Johnson's cronies helped pals bag £10bn of taxpayers' cash with PPE orders"

"Auditors called on the Government to disclose all information about the enormous PPE contracts handed out, fearing the findings could be just the tip of the iceberg"

"The Government was accused of ignoring conflicts of interest as the National Audit Office found £10.5bn of the £18bn spent on 8,600 pandemic contracts by July 31 was awarded without being put to tender. About 80% of the deals were for PPE.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisted he was "proud" of the Government’s actions. The report came after it was revealed Spanish businessman Gabriel González Andersson got £21million for acting as a go-between to secure protection for NHS staff."




He's not running an administration but a protection racket.
Again, a more balanced approach from The Sun is needed:

"Dirty Russian money flowing through London is destabilizing Ukraine, senior Tory MP warns"


His first victims are the Russian people themselves. The wealth of a great nation has been ferreted abroad and hidden in a web of fraud.
And again, and again, a more balanced approach from The Sun is needed:

"Undeniably, the revelations disclosed in the Panama Papers make a mockery of claims of ‘a just society’ and of the countless promises by governments of ‘a crackdown’ on tax avoidance.

For here is proof that thousands of rich residents of Britain and other democracies — together with crooks and national leaders headed by President Vladimir Putin of Russia —hide vast sums in often illicit wealth from lawful accountability."



He has murdered hundreds and robbed millions.
So has the West. Only two nations in the world have ever had an official policy of state-sponsored assassinations, and they still have them today – the US and Israel. The US call these assassinations target killings. The official CIA Assassination Manual, released to the public under a court order, contained detailed instructions on the methods of elimination of political obstacles. Here is one such example: “For secret assassinations…the contrived accident is the most effective technique. When successfully executed, it causes little excitement and is only casually investigated. The most effective accident .. is a fall of 75 feet or more onto a hard surface. Elevator shafts, stair wells, unscreened windows and bridges will serve. The act may be executed by sudden, vigorous grabbing of the ankles, tipping the subject over the edge.”

Congressman Ron Paul spoke about the Obama administration’s assassination policy on February 24, 2010, saying:

“What have we allowed ourselves to become? Are we no longer a nation of laws? Have we become instead a nation of men who make secret arrests? Are secret prisons now simply another tool of the federal government law enforcement? Is secret rendition of individuals now permitted, out of misplaced fear? Have we decided that the writ of habeas corpus is not worth defending? Is torture now an acceptable tool for making us safe? Unfortunately, the single answer to all of these questions from the leaders of our country and to many of our citizens appears to be yes.”
If Putin succeeds, others will see that the rule of law is less important than the rule of force.
He's had some really good teachers. Cambodia, Vietnam, Chile, Cuba, Irak, Libya, Serbia, Syria...are just few of the examples where the rule of law has been less important than the rule of force.

In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia. Nothing changed. In 2014 Russia attacked Ukraine and captured Crimea. Nothing happened. Since then Putin has attacked an ammunition depot in Prague; tried to assassinate the prime minister of Montenegro and even used chemical weapons in Salisbury killing a British woman. Still ZERO!
"We shop for church experiences as we shop for everything else folding religion into our consumer culture. The average American (who is religious) changes churches six or seven times during a lifetime, even changes religions. As Russia flexes her muscles we're reminded that history and religion are serious matters for some people, not just products to try then discard. We are also learning (again) that we had better know what we're doing before we interject ourselves into other cultures. Apparently we still don't get it. President Bush was willing to impose this vision by brutal force of arms. Clinton and Bush both bought into the idea that America is specially called by God to "civilize" the world by imposing our version of Protestant/Western norms and/or to use an Orthodox country as cannon fodder to "send a message" with. The United States and the West have been busy insulting and humiliating the Orthodox world since the end of the Cold War. We have missed every opportunity to show magnanimity as victors of the Cold War. American evangelicals invaded Russia with missionaries, because they said the Orthodox aren't "real Christians." We bombed Serbia. We treated the other global nuclear power as a younger dumber cousin. We attacked their friends. We lectured them. Now we expect Russia to be logical about these matters and do what is good for business. But we have forgotten that not everyone in this world is ready to forgo their heritage for a fast buck."


So, does this (the threat of the nuclear weapon) mean that we have to do nothing and let him get his way? Surrender now to this threat and it will be a green light for Putin and every other lunatic thug to threaten nuclear war to get their way. It will mean that we can never challenge Putin ever again because he will always brandish the threat. If we have to make a stand then let's make it NOW.

Here is what Russia and Putin think:

So, does this threat of the further NATO expansion to Ukraine mean that we have to do nothing and let the US and NATO get their way? Surrender now to this threat and it will be the green light for the NATO lunatic thugs to get their way and attack Russia. It will mean that we can never challenge NATO ever again because they will always say that every sovereign country has the right to choose a military alliance. If we have to make a stand then let's make it NOW!

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So, when we know how and what Putin thinks, shouldn't we try another approach? What about a compromise?

It's not a secret we live in a world of lunatics. Here in the West the politicians are puppets in the hands of the oligarchs, and in Russia it's another way around.

P.S.

Whilst more Russian lenders are being targeted, many will be surprised that neither Gazprom nor Rosneft, Russia’s two big energy companies, have been targeted by the British government. That may well be because BP owns 20% of Rosneft and Johnson doesn't want to hurt a business in which one of the UK’s biggest companies – a major shareholding in the long-term retirement plans of millions of Britons – has a strategic stake.
 
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