Ok, let's see where we are at after the loss against Leeds.
6. Cardiff 64 points +4 goal score
7. Swansea 63 points +5 goal score
8. Preston 62 points +4 goal score
9. Millwall 62 points +3 goal score
10. Derby 61 points -1 goal score
11. Bristol 61 points -4 goal score
12. Blackburn 60 points +4 goal score
Cardiff fixtures:
Derby
H
Middlesbrough
A
Hull
H
Derby fights for promotion, Middlesbrough & Hull are in the relegation danger. Cardiff can get max. 5 points out of 9 unless Hull are already relegated before the last game is played.
The best outcome for the Swans is:
Cardiff - Derby draw
Middlesbrough loss/draw
Hull loss/draw
Even if Cardiff draw with Derby and lose one of their last two games they will end the season with 68 points.
Max. six points.
Preston fixtures:
Brentford
A
Birmingham
H
Bristol
A
I can't see anything else than a Brentford win. They play the best football in this league and they have the best attackers. Brentford are in an excellent form, they have recorded 7 wins in a row, and they have scored most goals this season. They are especially strong at home turf.
Birmingham can still be relegated, they are a very poor team but, interestingly, they have earned the majority of their points this season in away games. Preston are solid at home turf. I expect Preston to win this one.
Bristol have been in a free fall since February 15 but they have won their last two games, though against poor opposition: Middlesbrough and Hull.
Preston have had only one win since February 22, so I don't expect neither of them to be in the play-off places at the end of the season.
Max. six points.
The best outcome for the Swans:
Brentford loss
Birmingham draw/loss
Bristol draw
Millwall fixtures:
Blackburn
H
QPR
A
Huddersfield
H
Blackburn can still reach play-off places and they usually play better when they meet a bit stronger opposition. So everything is possible here.
QPR have nothing to play for and they've lost 5 out of their last 6 games, the only team they have beaten was Middlesbrough away 0:1.
Huddersfield game is a tricky one. Of course it depends on the results for both teams in their two previous games but if Huddersfield is to be found in the middle of the relegation battle on the last day of the season, then they'll be a tough nut to crack.
Max. 7 points.
The best outcome for the Swans:
Blackburn draw
QPR loss/draw
Huddersfield loss/draw
Derby fixtures:
Cardiff
A
Leeds
H
Birmingham
A
Both Cardiff and Derby have lost their last two games, but prior to that they have been in a pretty good form. Only one draw in both teams' last 10 games. Neither of them will want to lose this one, so I expect a sweet draw here.
Leeds don't want to slip this time and Brentford is threatening both Leeds and WBA, so I expect a Leeds win at their turf.
Derby will beat Birmingham, so Derby will earn max. 6 points from their last three games.
Bristol fixtures:
Stoke
H
Swansea
A
Preston
H
Stoke have not reached safety yet, but their away form has been terrible since January 20 - they haven't won a single game. L 4 D 3.
Let's hope they are able to pick a point here, because this game can be their last chance to survive. Their last two games are against Brentford H and Forrest A.
Swansea have to win this one, so no joy for Bristol at the Liberty.
The outcome of the Preston game will depend on the league position. Both teams can be out of the play-off race by that time.
Max. 4 points.
Blackburn fixtures:
Millwall
A
Reading
H
Luton
A
Millwall will be a tough game, but I expect a draw here.
Reading are a strange team. In their last 14 away games they have won 7, drawn 4, and lost 3. That's an excellent away form based on counter-attacking football.
Luton away will be a tough game for Blackburn. Luton's last 12 games only two losses.
Blackburn max. 4 points.
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The best possible outcome in the next round of fixtures:
Swans to beat Forrest or at least get one point
Cardiff - Derby draw
Brentford to beat Preston
Millwall - Blacburn draw
Bristol either to lose/draw to/with Stoke
6. Cardiff 65
7. Swansea 64 or 66 (wishful thinking
)
8. Millwall 63
9. Derby 62
10. Bristol 62
11. Blackburn 61
Imho, 70 points will be enough to finish 6th this season, which means Swans need a win or a draw from the Forrest game, and two wins against Bristol and Reading.