Championship Round 16 - Expected Goals & Points
- Thread starter CroJack
- Start date
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
This is season is shaping up like Martinez's second season. Under Martinez, his system started to click during October and from November on we were leaving other teams behind.
Our form since Benda indicates that Martin's system has started to click, and if we hadn't had that lame outing against Burnley we'd be joint top.
So, are we about to see a repeat? Our New Year's day match against Burnley is going to be a classic and compares with the holiday match against Leeds at home under Martinez.
Our form since Benda indicates that Martin's system has started to click, and if we hadn't had that lame outing against Burnley we'd be joint top.
So, are we about to see a repeat? Our New Year's day match against Burnley is going to be a classic and compares with the holiday match against Leeds at home under Martinez.
CroJack
Key Player
Many pundits think Burnley are nailed on for the automatic promotion. I don't think they are better than Sheff. United and Norwich. At least not yet. Against Sunderland they were two goals down and then they scored four goals from 1.45 expected goals. Blackburn and Burnley strikers have been overperforming so far. Blackburn have scored 22 from 20 xGoals, and Burnley 29 from 27 xGoals, which is not sustainable. Neither have deserved to be above Swansea in the league table. Though Burnley have deserved to be in the top six.
P.S. Just watched highlights from the Burnley v Norwich game played last night. Burnley were better and created more (half) chances than Norwich, but Norwich had the best chance of the game when Pukki was alone with the Burnley goalkeeper who made a great save. In 80 minute one of the Norwich players gave a stupid penalty away, and that was it. 1:0 to Burnley.
Non-penalty XGoals
Burnley 1.50 : 1.10 Norwich
Fair result
Burnley 1 : 1 Norwich
xGoals with the penalty
Burnley 2.25 : 1.10 Norwich
Fair result
Burnley 2 : 1 Norwich
P.S. Just watched highlights from the Burnley v Norwich game played last night. Burnley were better and created more (half) chances than Norwich, but Norwich had the best chance of the game when Pukki was alone with the Burnley goalkeeper who made a great save. In 80 minute one of the Norwich players gave a stupid penalty away, and that was it. 1:0 to Burnley.
Non-penalty XGoals
Burnley 1.50 : 1.10 Norwich
Fair result
Burnley 1 : 1 Norwich
xGoals with the penalty
Burnley 2.25 : 1.10 Norwich
Fair result
Burnley 2 : 1 Norwich
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Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Going into the weekend, we are going to have a one game advantage versus Burnley. It is critical this weekend that we continue our form and dispatch Bristol - if I read the xCharts correctly we are superior in all factors based on the ratios of actual / X. QPR have a difficult task away to Brum. Burnley are home to Reading.
We don't want QPR and Burnley to open up a gap. I'm not worried about Blackburn - they will revert to the mean soon enough.
We don't want QPR and Burnley to open up a gap. I'm not worried about Blackburn - they will revert to the mean soon enough.
CroJack
Key Player
Just slightly superior. We are to a great degree similar to Bristol and Sheff. United. All three teams create and concede many chances. And all three teams miss many chances. The difference is that Sheff. United don't concede many goals.
We have to be careful against Bristol. They have some good attackers and they are one of the best Championship teams when it comes to counter-attacking and set-pieces.
Did you know that Bristol most dangerous striker Nahki Wells played for Bradford against Swansea in the Carabao Cup final in 2013?
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Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Ah yes, the infamous Ki over Monk at CB match. That must have really bust his balls. Would have lovee to have witnessed the announcement of that selection to the squad. Especially since Monk played the previous week against 'Pool and we were done 5-0.
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That's why he was dumped for Ki. Got his revenge on Laudrup though and consigned our club to the pits in doing so.