Norwich

IanABS94

Key Player
Is this one of the biggest games in the past decade for this club? It's pretty damned close in my opinion. Depending on the result tomorrow with Brentford v Bristol we could 5 points clear in 2nd place and be only 2 behind The Canaries who have looked bereft of idea's lately; even with Buendia.

This is a game which Cooper HAS to go for the throat. If he plays it like he did vs Brentford then firstly we won't win and secondly we won't deserve the automatic promotion spots. He needs to get into the players and get them absolutely fired up. Norwich are there for the taking right now, they haven't looked good recently at all and with just drawing Milwall tonight they will have less rest than us and perhaps slightly disheartened by the performance in which they honestly should've lost had Milwall converted some glorious chances.
 

Behindthegoal

Key Player
Norwich are a spent force, so probably a draw will do, but don’t tell our manager that. I would see the route to automatic promotion as:-
Sit back while Norwich drop like a stone, and don’t worry when Brentford overtake us, which they will.

As many will know, my personal dream scenario is for us to make the play off final, at Wembley, which I will attend.
Of course, with our current owners, we must lose this match rather than face the prospect of beating Derby’s low point record.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Is this one of the biggest games in the past decade for this club? It's pretty damned close in my opinion.
No mate, not even close. A win doesn't mean we'll be in the Premier League next season, and a loss doesn't mean we won't.

Here is my list over the most important games in the past decade:

1. Swansea v. Reading Play-Off Final on 30 May 2011 at Wembley. Full match here:


2. Swansea v. Chelsea second leg in the Carabao Cup semi-final, when we had to defend 2:0 lead from the first leg at the Stamford Bridge, and when it was clear that we would have a good chance to win our first major trophy if we went through.


3. Swansea v. Bradford at Wembley in the Carabao Cup final. We were favourites, but still needed to show up and win the game. Winning our first major trophy is one of the highlights of the past decade.


4. Swansea v. Malmo in the Europa League third qualifying round. It was important to go through to the play-off round, and then to the group stage.


5. Swansea v. Petrolul in the Europa League play-off round. Not only our prestige was at stake, but a good chunk of money as well. It was important to reach the group stage and meet some of the best clubs in Europe.


6. Welcome to European football Swansea. The game against Valencia was a big game for us. It was our first game in the Europa League group stage, and Valencia, although not one of the best teams in Europe, were still a very good team who played very good football. That year they reached Europa League semi-final and lost to Sevilla. The first leg Sevilla won 2:0 and the second Valencia 3:1. Sevilla went through to the final thanks to an away goal scored at Valencia. Why was it a big game for us? Well, it was important to see where we were at. Were we good enough to play against European clubs? Or not?


7. Swansea v. Napoli in the last 32 in the Europa League. Well, it was important to go through, wasn't it? We dominated them at the Liberty, but couldn't score. Then we dominated them again in Naples, had 1:1 which was enough to go through just to concede two late goals against the run of play.



These are the stats from the second leg in Naples (we had 12 shots on target!):

Screenshot 2021-02-03 at 11.37.36.png

8. Laudrup's first game in charge. We had already lost some important players (Allen and Gylfi), and Sinclair was on the brink of signing for Man City. It was an away game against QPR, our bogey team. We didn't know whether the new signings Michu, Chico etc. would be good enough or not.


9. Monk's first game in charge. A totally inexperienced Monk took over after Laudrup's dismissal and we had to play Cardiff. At that time we were 2 points clear of the relegation places. Luckily for us, we still had the Laudrup's squad and players who still knew how to play some wonderful football. Ironically, after the game Monk was credited for that win and was hailed as a great manager by the vast majority of the Swansea fans.


10. In each Premier League season the games that mathematically secured another Premier League season were more important than this Norwich game. Even the last season's play-off games were bigger.
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The Norwich game is a brick in the road forward. We step on it, we win it, we move one step closer to the goal. We have to be our best selves. We need to play with conviction. I don’t see how any of our players could walk on that field and not believe, not be committed. If they do, there’s a seat in the stand for the rest of the season.

There are dozens of things that can compromise the result of a football game. Ourselves shouldn’t be one of them. This we control, all the others we do not.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
There's no question that this Norwich game IS hugely important; perhaps not in the context of other games as @CroJack so nicely pointed out but, nevertheless, the game could be vital in terms of our effort to return to the top level. For me, Brentford is the best team in the Division but there's little to choose between the other teams in the remaining six places. Watford and Muff have faltered lately and Norwich were lucky to get a point against Millwall, so we have a good chance to cement our place near the top.

However, in all honesty, our own form hasn't been great either and three brilliant goals didn't disguise the fact that, for certain parts of the game, we were badly second best to a team in the relegation places. There's no question that we can beat Norwich and get right on their heels but we're going to have to play way better than we did last time out to do it. Will we? Won't we? Who knows? Perhaps the new signings might have an impact. We'll see.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
We're going to do them 3-1, been a long time since we've had this amount of time to prepare for a game, valuable time to assess the new arrivals and their contribution to our final third play, I'm pretty sure Norwich are aware of our new squad additions, but not too sure how to counteract them having not seen them play. We now have a bench capable of changing attacking modes.
 

KVetch

Key Player
Good article describing our shape. To some statistics we are over performing defensively. But that is subject to debate. Cooper has done the job so far.

 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
I don't understand where the "expected points" basis of his arguments comes from. Exactly what is the algorithm for expected points.

I always look at goal difference as to where a team should be placed - there are inconsistencies in that metric, but I've generally found it to be a good guide. At the end of the season, teams with gd ~ 0 are general mid table; teams with gd < -20 get relegated; and, teams with gd > +20 are at or near the top of the table.

We have a GD of +18, second only to Brentford, and up until Brentford's pasting of Wycombe the best GD in the league. For me, we are right where we should be. Brentford are going to be conceding against other clubs. They will soon have a GD lower than ours ... especially if we are able to continue with our recent flurry of midfield production and add Morris to the mix with perhaps even a contribution from Asoro (who knows what state he's in).

Adding goal production to our miserly goal allowance is going to be a killer recipe for promotion.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
I've listened to Andy Pandy's pre-game interview. He seems pretty underwhelmed by the new players. Barely a positive word to say about any of the players added on the last day. When asked to comment on Arriola's pace and stamina, AP replied that he'll have to have that, it's expected in my squad .... wow, welcome dude.
 

KVetch

Key Player
I don't understand where the "expected points" basis of his arguments comes from. Exactly what is the algorithm for expected points.

I always look at goal difference as to where a team should be placed - there are inconsistencies in that metric, but I've generally found it to be a good guide. At the end of the season, teams with gd ~ 0 are general mid table; teams with gd < -20 get relegated; and, teams with gd > +20 are at or near the top of the table.

We have a GD of +18, second only to Brentford, and up until Brentford's pasting of Wycombe the best GD in the league. For me, we are right where we should be. Brentford are going to be conceding against other clubs. They will soon have a GD lower than ours ... especially if we are able to continue with our recent flurry of midfield production and add Morris to the mix with perhaps even a contribution from Asoro (who knows what state he's in).

Adding goal production to our miserly goal allowance is going to be a killer recipe for promotion.
The newer metrics they use based on the shot distances, type of kick or header, location. The claim is our defending is over performing. Is that a good or bad thing though. We force the oppposition to make crosses into the box where we have the numbers to head them away. Guehi has been a big part of that this season. I like the strategy, it's worked so far.

Bristol City have an early goal 1-0 up on Brentford.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The newer metrics they use based on the shot distances, type of kick or header, location. The claim is our defending is over performing. Is that a good or bad thing though. We force the oppposition to make crosses into the box where we have the numbers to head them away. Guehi has been a big part of that this season. I like the strategy, it's worked so far.

Bristol City have an early goal 1-0 up on Brentford.
We're not letting the other team score ... isn't that the objective :ROFLMAO:
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
The newer metrics they use based on the shot distances, type of kick or header, location. The claim is our defending is over performing. Is that a good or bad thing though. We force the oppposition to make crosses into the box where we have the numbers to head them away. Guehi has been a big part of that this season. I like the strategy, it's worked so far.

Bristol City have an early goal 1-0 up on Brentford.
1-1 now.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Pretty sure Crojack will analyse this well.
Excellent analysis apart from the expected goals and points.

As I pointed out in one of my threads, all these expected goals models suck big time, and they suck because they are based on the wrong data. I mean, they are so ridiculous that it's pretty embarrassing for those who are publishing them. They have nothing to do with the reality.
 

CroJack

Key Player
The newer metrics they use based on the shot distances, type of kick or header, location
Which is mostly bullshit. The most important metrics is goal opening, and then distance and then angle. If it's a kick or a header it absolutely doesn't matter, because for Llorente a header is like a kick. You know what I mean.

The trouble is that none of the expected goals models takes into account the most obvious metrics, and that's how wide the goal is open. Incredible.
 

Victoria Swan

Key Player
Good article describing our shape. To some statistics we are over performing defensively. But that is subject to debate. Cooper has done the job so far.
Thanks for this @KVetch - really good read. Most helpful to see the analysis of our defense. A lot of us on here get frustrated at us sitting back and not pressing higher up but the explanation in the article made me see it in a different light: "When they lose possession, their first instinct is to drop back into their defensive 5-3-2 shape whilst the nearest player to the ball closes down the ball-carrier in order to delay the transition to allow the other players time to get back as quickly as possible." As the article points out this seems to be pretty effective for us and maybe Cooper knows that with the players we have we aren't that good at pressing high because we don't have the speed to get back if/when the opposition breaks the press.
 

CroJack

Key Player
I don't understand where the "expected points" basis of his arguments comes from. Exactly what is the algorithm for expected points.
I always look at goal difference as to where a team should be placed - there are inconsistencies in that metric, but I've generally found it to be a good guide.
In a nutshell:

Expected goals for and against is a statistical model for the quality of chances.

It all started when Opta statisticians got a "bright" idea that the quality of chances could be calculated statistically.

So, what they did?

They had a look at their database with all the shots from the big leagues and "found out" that if a shot was close to the goal it had a higher probability to be converted. They simply calculated how many shots from the exact positions in and around the box had been converted in the past and how many hadn't. Then they said "Ok, now we can apply that to all future situations."

Soon they realised that their calculations are far away from the reality on the pitch. Why? It doesn't matter whether millions of goals have been scored in the past from the exact position in the box or not - the vast majority of new chances is unique. I'll give you an example. Zlatan's famous bicycle kick from forty yards is a better chance than a kick from six yards if you have seven defenders and a goalkeeper between you and the goal.

So, what happened next? Opta (and others) started fine-tuning their models and adding other parameters: distance, angle, defensive pressure, type of the shot (kick, header, volley etc.), weather conditions (snow, wind etc.) and other things. They only need to add players haircut to make their models completely ridiculous.

Only recently Opta added two dimensional goal opening to their calculations as something like the fifth or sixth most important parameter. The trouble is that football is played in 3D, not 2D.

A couple of years ago, one of the prominent statisticians, who has developed his own expected goals model, finally gave up and said "It's impossible to precisely calculate the quality of chances. Let's give every shot exactly the same expected goals value." Lol. But he is wrong too. The quality of chances can be calculated.

So, what's wrong with the expected goals models? Nothing wrong with the models except that they are all fundamentally wrong. A valid theory can be built on false premises. Same with the expected goals statistical models. They are probably valid, all of them, but at the same time they are fundamentally wrong. In the past the human race have developed some valid theories about the Universe based on the false premise that the Earth is flat. The same with the statistical expected goals models. Statistics depends on valid data, and if data is crap, then the results from the most sophisticated and valid statistical models will be crap as well.

Apart from chances where a player has an open goal in front of him, which is a rare situation in football, all other chances are unique. Even penalty kicks are unique, which I am going to explain in a separate thread.

All football players and fans know instinctively what a (good) chance is: the wider goal is open the better chance is. That's why we talk about "defenders closing down opposition players, blocking shots, throwing bodies on the line, goalkeepers narrowing the angle etc.".

When the expected goals models were introduced I was as excited as many other fans and pundits. Finally we got a model which could measure the real quality of football teams. But how wrong I was! As soon as I started comparing expected goals values from the statistical models with the real life situations on the football pitch I realised that there was a ridiculous discrepancy between their calculations and the reality.

Is it possible to exactly calculate the quality of chances in football? Yes, but not by using statistical models. What we need is cameras around and above the pitch, we need geometry, and we need a perfect player. As I said, I'm going to explain everything in a new thread.
 
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CroJack

Key Player
I always look at goal difference as to where a team should be placed... I've generally found it to be a good guide. At the end of the season, teams with gd ~ 0 are general mid table; teams with gd < -20 get relegated; and, teams with gd > +20 are at or near the top of the table.
Exactly, but expected goals for and against give you more information.

Examples:

A team creates a lot of high quality chances, but fails to score. = Buy some better attackers.
A team allows only few high quality chances against, but concedes a lot of goals = Buy some better defenders.
A team doesn't create a lot of chances and at the same time allows many high quality chances against. = Sack your manager.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Trying to evaluate the hits, runs and errors inside a match and project the "expected" results of matches is a lot like trying to evaluate the management decisions within a company and then project the "expected" price or change in price of a stock

The expected points method attempts to predict macro results from historical micro (within match) metrics, which doesn't factor in game impacting things such as: weather, field condition, injuries and suspensions, team setups, match officials, who's banging who's wife or girl friend, and pay-offs.

In the stock market, VAR analysis attempts to project probability envelopes of returns (a macro metric) from historical returns (also a macro metric).

I've pondered about applying a VAR methodology to football, where a return is a function of a match's results league position of the club and opposition before the match. You could substitute GD for league position. I think this would provide an analysis just as meaningful and probably a closer model to reality than the Expect Points method. And just as in the stock market, unpredictable events within a match will bust the probability projections.
 
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CroJack

Key Player
And just as in the stock market, unpredictable events within a match will bust the probability projections.
Expected goals are not meant to help us guess the outcome of a particular match. They are about long term results, but even then there is no guarantee the teams who top the charts for expected goals will win the league. We saw that two seasons ago when Leeds failed to win promotion to the Premuer League. No matter how good a team is there are always external things that can influence a match: red cards, injuries to key players, suspensions, bended referees, deflected (lucky) shots, own goals, penalties, muddy pitch, snow, rain etc.
 
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