Behindthegoal
Key Player
But will I be there?
Murder at the vicarage
- Thread starter The Blobster
- Start date
CroJack
Key Player
Not many fans will be allowed to be there. 10.000?
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lliwt yr lavac
Key Player
If only our 26 parsimonious billionaire owners had put their hands in their pockets for some loose change to buy a recognised striker last August we would be celebrating promotion already.
Brentford bought Ivan Toney for £5m and he’s scored 30 goals, Cardiff bought Kieffer Moore for £2m and he’s scored 20 goals.
All season we’ve struggled to score goals. In January we had the chance to rectify the situation, what did we do? We sold our best player for £10m, half his real value, and bought an unknown and inexperienced youngster Whittaker for 200k, from struggling Derby, a player who’d had only a handful of first team games. One for the future they said?
Yesterday we were the better team and created loads of chances. Watford had three chances, scored from two of them and won the match at a stroll.
Brentford bought Ivan Toney for £5m and he’s scored 30 goals, Cardiff bought Kieffer Moore for £2m and he’s scored 20 goals.
All season we’ve struggled to score goals. In January we had the chance to rectify the situation, what did we do? We sold our best player for £10m, half his real value, and bought an unknown and inexperienced youngster Whittaker for 200k, from struggling Derby, a player who’d had only a handful of first team games. One for the future they said?
Yesterday we were the better team and created loads of chances. Watford had three chances, scored from two of them and won the match at a stroll.
Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Question: is Invisible on loan through the playoffs or just for the regular season? Same for our other loanees.
CroJack
Key Player
Contracts for the players on loan expire earlieast on May 31.
CroJack
Key Player
I'm not so sure about "we would be celebrating promotion already", but our chances would be slightly better.
Our style of football, Steve Cooper's too rigid defensive approach, a lack of a dedicated striker and creative attacking midfielder who can also score plenty of goals, have all together been the reason we are not celebrating promotion. But the style of play is definitely the most important thing when it comes to creating chances and scoring goals. And how on earth are you going to create chances and score goals when you play three or five at the back with two or three defensive pivots and practically only two men in the attack? How on earth are you going to create chances and score goals when you don't dominate games and your passing accuracy is crap?
A striker alone wouldn't make a huge impact on our promotion chances because we haven't created many chances. I bet even Messi wouldn't score many goals for this Swansea side.
This just proves my point that a striker alone is not enough. Brentford are in the play-offs, just like us, and Cardiff finished out of the play-off places.
And if you think that we haven't scored the goals we should, then you are terribly wrong. I would suggest that you read one of my threads where I have analysed Swansea's expected goals and points. Ayew and Lowe have scored exactly as many goals as we have created chances for them.
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All good points, CJ, but I get the point that @lliwt yr lavac is making. Neither Ayew nor Lowe are dedicated strikers as such and someone who is would surely have made a difference and affected the way the team performed in attack. Even a rookie like Cullen would have made a difference had he been properly fit. If a striker is proving prolific then the midfielders/creators are more inclined to get the ball into him quicker and more often.
The upside of Brentford and Cardiff's signings, apart from their goals, is that both Toney and Moore are now probably worth five times what was paid for them, something our moronic owners in their appalling ignorance utterly fail to appreciate.
The upside of Brentford and Cardiff's signings, apart from their goals, is that both Toney and Moore are now probably worth five times what was paid for them, something our moronic owners in their appalling ignorance utterly fail to appreciate.
CroJack
Key Player
Disagree. We wouldn't have created more chances had Cullen been fit. And Cullen's shooting accuracy is not good enough (See thread Hall of Shame).
We don't have such creative players in the midfield, and our style of play doesn't allow them to be a little bit more creative. Not only we have played the whole season without a proper striker, but since Gibbs-White got injured we haven't had a proper attacking midfielder. Dhanda is simply not good enough. Hourihane, Smith and Fulton are not attacking midfielders.
Stats only tell you so much as you know, CJ. Cullen is comparatively new to the team and hasn't had the time to get to know his team mates in a playing sense, nor they him. By 'properly fit' I mean match fit and this is key to any player performing well and particularly so in a striker. Given time, you can take it from me that Cullen's figures will improve out of sight. The other thing to factor in is that Cullen likes to take first time strikes (his goals so far have all been first time hits and he was injured attempting another one). Other players fanny about with the ball and often don't even get off a strike in which case nothing is registered against them in the database. In the long term give me a guy who pulls the trigger at every reasonable opportunity than one who either tries to walk the ball in or takes/needs an extra touch to be sure.
I wonder what the stats would say about such wasted opportunities?
I wonder what the stats would say about such wasted opportunities?
CroJack
Key Player
I know.
I can accept this, but hitting the target has nothing to do with getting to know his team mates. He misses the target 57% of time.
I am sure they will, I like him a lot, and as you know I want him to play regularly.
That's what I like about him.
Whittaker.
Actually, we haven't had many wasted opportunities where a player tries to walk the ball or take an extra touch to shoot. If anyone in our team does that then that's Ayew and Lowe, but not so often. The player who does that a lot in the Premier League is Mohamed Salah.
In our case there haven't been many wasted opportunities. That's a myth. We simply have to stop thinking that 5% or 10% expected goals chances are wasted opportunities. They are what they are, 0,5/10 and 1/10 of a 100% chance.
Our problem is not wasted opportunities, but our inability to create many more opportunities than we did. And that's Cooper fault. He has been inept to transform us to a much more dangerous team through higher passing accuracy, pass & move, a more attacking formation etc.
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As you know, the whole of my football philosophy is based on pass and move something which, as you say, has sorely gone missing from our game.
CroJack
Key Player
F*** me, I have to appologise to @lliwt yr lavac , and you @ivoralljack . I should be reading my own threads and analysis. You guys are absolutely right when it comes to wasted opportunities. We are short at least 23 goals, which means we should have scored at least 23 more goals than we did.
Actually, already on March 23 we had a deficit of 23 goals. It's probably more now. But Ayew and Lowe have not wasted many chances. The charts in the thread Hall of Shame can give us the answer who has been most wasteful.
I made this chart on March 23.
I made this one on March 4, and we can see that both Ayew and Love slightly overperformed when it comes to goals scored compared to their expected goals numbers.
Actually, already on March 23 we had a deficit of 23 goals. It's probably more now. But Ayew and Lowe have not wasted many chances. The charts in the thread Hall of Shame can give us the answer who has been most wasteful.
I made this chart on March 23.
I made this one on March 4, and we can see that both Ayew and Love slightly overperformed when it comes to goals scored compared to their expected goals numbers.
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Yankee_Jack
Key Player
Ayew’s best games for us in the Prem were when he’s been the #9, and not allowed to rove around as he invariably did in other positions. However, It’s been invaluable for us now that he does “rove”, because he’s been a work horse dropping deeper and making up for deficiencies in midfield and the invisibility of players too often.
we don’t create enough opportunities to score. Yesterday’s game was a classical example of how we flatter to deceive in the final third. Time and again instead of being direct in that area, and attacking zones in the box by crossing the ball into there, we’d withdraw and pass it around the periphery until we either lost possession or played backwards to our deepest defenders on the half way line, got pressed and have to start over again. In contrast, Watford executed simply, directly in the final third and scored.
Cullen has demonstrated that he has the tools to finish, but he can’t finish nothing. And, nobody can finish 100% of the time, so the more frequently we create opportunities by putting the ball into the box, the more likely we are to put ball on goal, and then the more likely we are to put ball in goal. Defenders and keepers are not cardboard cut outs; they get paid too. It’s always a numbers game ... the higher the numbers, the more the probabilities work for you. Zero always works against you in an absolute way.
Yesterday, Curt, ever diplomatic and mindful of what he says, was left exasperated on more than one occasion. His opinion of Mr Invisible is no secret, and yesterday his dismay at our work product in and around the box was ... legend.
l’d love to eavesdrop on Curt and KOL discussing our situation after a few beers.
we don’t create enough opportunities to score. Yesterday’s game was a classical example of how we flatter to deceive in the final third. Time and again instead of being direct in that area, and attacking zones in the box by crossing the ball into there, we’d withdraw and pass it around the periphery until we either lost possession or played backwards to our deepest defenders on the half way line, got pressed and have to start over again. In contrast, Watford executed simply, directly in the final third and scored.
Cullen has demonstrated that he has the tools to finish, but he can’t finish nothing. And, nobody can finish 100% of the time, so the more frequently we create opportunities by putting the ball into the box, the more likely we are to put ball on goal, and then the more likely we are to put ball in goal. Defenders and keepers are not cardboard cut outs; they get paid too. It’s always a numbers game ... the higher the numbers, the more the probabilities work for you. Zero always works against you in an absolute way.
Yesterday, Curt, ever diplomatic and mindful of what he says, was left exasperated on more than one occasion. His opinion of Mr Invisible is no secret, and yesterday his dismay at our work product in and around the box was ... legend.
l’d love to eavesdrop on Curt and KOL discussing our situation after a few beers.
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