Lowe

CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
There has been a lot of criticism lately towards Lowe's "inability" to score goals. Some claim that Lowe misses sitters game after game, which I don't think is a fair criticism. Instead, in my opinion, the criticism of Lowe should be directed towards his decision making in some situations, and towards his lack of creativity.

A couple of days ago I promised to have a look at the quality of chances (and their expected goals values) Lowe has had so far this season. By doing an analysis of each chance he has had, we can see exactly how many goals he could/should have scored. I am also going to calculate xG for all Swansea chances, game for game, and player for player.

Important:

I am going to use both pre-shot and post-shot expected goals values. Pre-shot expected goal value is a quality of chance where a player for some reason doesn't take a shot. Pre-shot expected goal value is important in case we want to judge decision making when it comes to strikers. If a striker constantly chooses not to shoot when there is a good chance to do that, and instead, by taking a couple of touches more than necessary, decreases quality of chances, then we can conclude that he over-complicates things and that his decision making is poor.

I am going to start in revers order, the Middlesbrough game first.


Here is a prime example af a striker whose decison making is poor.
Lowe has an opportunity to take a one-touch shot in a position where his chance has a higher xG (expected goal) value than the following chance.
Instead, he chooses to take a couple of more touches and steps, narrows the angle, and decreases the value of the chance.
Still, his shot is good, and he forces the Middlesbrough keeper to make a save, which creates a much better chance for Roberts.

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Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
What this example says to me is that his mind is “slow” and his technical ability weak. A “proper” forward in that position should be expecting a pass, should be eager to get the ball, even screaming for it, and so should already be mentally and physically tuned in to his next step ... what he does when the ball arrives. Lowe”s additional touches and steps are anathema to a good striker ... a “proper” striker would be one touching the ball even with the side of his foot a striker should be able to put sufficient pace and accuracy on the ball to be both on target and a challenge to the keeper. It is a more controlled move. It would also permit the striker to naturally follow through and be in position to hunt any rebound.

As you say, the more touches and steps, the weaker his opportunity becomes not just positionally because his angle narrows but in terms of time since it affords the keeper a chance to position and be set but also gives defenders the opportunity to close him down and potentially tackle or block a shot.

I haven’t seen Lowe play out wide like would a winger would be expected to play. He is not a striker likely to maximize the return on opportunity inside the box never mind create a good opportunity where one doesn’t really exist. In total, I don’t see his value over giving a player like Cullen the same number of games to demonstrate that he’s sub par in the role. Promotion teams don’t, can't carry sub par players in any role never mind striker. Lowe has had ample game time to bed in, adjust, form some sort of partnership with Ayew ... it’s not happening, it’s just reinforcing the notion that he’s a nice lad but sub par for the role. If I was Cullen I’d be bitterly disappointed; I’d be asking why not me.

i don’t buy into the idea that being a hard worker is a substitution for scoring and making goals. If he scores and creates regularly he could be as lazy as a dead dog, nobody would care .... he could be “carried” by the other 10 players ... but if hard work is all he offers then why him, we have plenty of other players that could work hard.

Andy Pandy needs to be cruel to Lowe to be kind to the team. It’s time to give another player a chance to work hard ... with the potential upside of scoring and creating.

when our wing backs are the better wingers and are getting in better positions in the box and scoring more goals than your striker ... you need a different striker.
 
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jackodiamonds

jackodiamonds

Set-Piece Specialist
Staff member
Nice anaylsis @CroJack

I wouldn't call Lowe mentally slow or technically weak. The problem is that he's played and trained as a winger his whole career, but now he's being asked to play striker. He's used to taking touches when receiving the ball because that's part of the winger's game. His problem is not being able to break those habits and develop new striker instincts, like taking first time shots.

Lowe has been an experiment (i.e. strikers cost money so maybe buying a goal-scoring winger and converting him to a striker will fill a position at much lower cost) but it isn't really working at the moment. I agree about Cullen. Cullen is a striker, and has been developing those instincts and skills his whole career. Like everyone else, I'd rather see him given a run of starts next to Ayew.

Lowe's running would be good off the bench versus tired defences, but I don't think the #9 needs to work especially hard in this system. The beauty of the 3-4-1-2 is that is gives a team enough of a defensive platform that it can actually afford to carry a goal-hanging poacher at 9, and Lord knows Ayew runs enough for two men anyway. The only reason more teams don't play 3-4-1-2 it is that it is hard to find quality wingbacks, but Swansea are blessed in that position, so why not leverage that advantage and play a poacher? Cullen would be perfect as all he's interested in is shooting and scoring.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
I said in my previous posts that I agree Cullen should be given a run of games, but I still don't think Lowe should've scored from every single opportunity he had. It's simply unrealistic to expect that from any striker, not to talk about a winger who pretends to be a striker.
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
CroJack said:
I said in my previous posts that I agree Cullen should be given a run of games, but I still don't think Lowe should've scored from every single opportunity he had. It's simply unrealistic to expect that from any striker, not to talk about a winger who pretends to be a striker.
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Agree with you 100%. But his output in terms of goals and assists is sub-par. He's being asked to perform a role. It may be unfair on Lowe but that's the fact of the matter, and it's certainly fair to say that Andy Pandy's attempt to force a squarish block into a roundish hole is not working as expected ... the experiment has run its course ... time to try another experiment or we're going to keep losing matches that we should have the horsepower to win.
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
jackodiamonds said:
Nice anaylsis @CroJack

I wouldn't call Lowe mentally slow or technically weak ...
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Compared to who? Compared to Magic Daps. Compared to Michu. Compared to Sinclair. Compared to those players ... as a forward playing in a tandem with Ayew ... he is mentally slow and technically weak for the role he's being asked to play. His reaction times are not quick enough. He's not sufficiently situationally aware. His ability to one touch a ball coming into him is not a core strength .... for that matter what is his core strength?

I haven't seen him out and out skin a defender since the pre-season matches against lower level opposition.

We are trying to get promoted - I don't feel the need to be charitable. We need above par players in all positions and those that can't raise their game, adjust their game, get smarter shouldn't be on the field.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
Viktor hasn't had a proper run of games, and we shouldn't be harsh on him either.

Once again, the point I'm trying to make is WE DON'T CREATE ENOUGH CHANCES. Against Middlesbrough we had 2 half chances, and the Robberts' sitter. Something like 1,1 xG, which is good for one goal. That's simply not enough. Last season Patrick Bamford missed 20 expected goals, and Leeds still got promoted. Why? They used to create so many chances that it didn't matter. We can blame Lowe, Viktor etc. as much as we want, but Messi doesn't score from every chance either.

As I see it, the problem is not Lowe, Viktor, Grimes, Palmer, Gibbs-White, Roberts...the problem is our style of play. It's a structural thing. It's Cooper.

You remember how we played under Potter? Hoofing was allowed only when it was a necessary clearance. Under Cooper, hoofing has become the norm.
 
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Victoria Swan

Victoria Swan

Key Player
CroJack said:
I still don't think Lowe should've scored from every single opportunity he had.
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As usual some quality analysis there @CroJack - thanks. However, no one is arguing that Lowe should have scored from every single opportunity. How about from just one in the last ten games. He is, after all, our starting striker!

You and all the rest of us want Cullen (or even Gyokeres) to be given the same chance as Lowe has had with a run of games as striker. They are, after all, in the squad as strikers! (And, as @jackodiamonds points out, have spent their careers developing striker instincts.) The big question is, why doesn't Cooper see the need for this?
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Let's talk about some rules of thumb. A striker is not going to score on every opportunity - the keeper, the weather, the field, the presence and challenge of defenders, and blocking clearances from a defender are all impediments. However, it is fair to expect a striker to hit the target - shooting and missing doesn't work. So a metric to consider is how many times does a striker shoot/head on target in a game versus attempts at doing so. If a striker is consistently failing to do that then there's a problem.

You can play the probability game. Let's say that a shot / header at the target is a random chance event and that hitting the target is reduced to a coin toss. Every attempt at shooting or heading therefore has a 50/50 chance of hitting the target ... now a crude approach to the experiment this is of course. Every attempt is statistically independent of every other attempt ... so probabilities multiply.

Some general rules: if you don't shoot/head at all then the probability of hitting the target = 0

If you do shoot/head at goal, then the probability of hitting the target is 0.5 (50%). If you do shoot/head at goal, say 10 times, then the probability of missing every time or hitting the target every time = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 2^(-10). This is a very, very, very small number, practically zero, meaning not a chance in hell.

What this says is that even a dross player should hit the target at least once in 10 tries by pure dumb luck.

And, similarly, if you hit the target 9 times out of 10 then either your name is Messi or you've got nothing but jam.

So, with any skill at all, any skill that perturbs the random chance event in his favor, a player should be hitting the target some meaningful number of times. As the skill increases the probability of hitting the target moves from 50/50 to 55/45 to 60/40 and so on.

Now ... how many times has Lowe hit the target as a % of shots/headers attempted. From raw memory, I think Cullen's is greater than 50% - there was the header from a corner a couple of matches ago ... what else. What is Lowe's ratio. And, what is Ayew's. This will tell us a lot comparing this simple metric across the players. And for that matter, comparing Lowe with Bidwell and Roberts, both score and get themselves in positions to shoot/head on goal.

This is an interesting measure of a striker's most critical raw ability - the ability to be the ultimate threat on goal - impacted by a lot interfering elements for sure - but still offsetting the interference is a thing we'll call skill. Complimenting technical ability, there are also mental and physical factors coming into play, but let's wrap everything up into one neat factor called "skill".

To paraphrase Shankley ... "if you're not interfering with play then what the hell are you doing out there".... Similarly, if you're a forward and you're not hitting the target, I've got some boots that need to be polished.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
Victoria Swan said:
How about from just one in the last ten games. He is, after all, our starting striker!
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"It's bad not to score a single goal in the last ten games" is exactly what I read last week about Roberto Firmino who is Klopp's favourite striker. And then he finally scored.

Let's first see the chances Lowe has missed in the last ten games.

As for the starting strikers, we don't have any. Both Lowe and Ayew are wingers. Actually, Ayew has played as a striker before for us one season in the Premier League and last season in the Championship. As far as I know, maybe I am wrong, this is the first time for Lowe to play up front as a striker. He is obviously not a striker, he doesn't have insticts needed for a striker, and he shouldn't be playing there. But do we have any proven strikers at all? What is Victor's record? Cullen was a proven striker at U23 level, but we still don't know whether he can make it or break it. Lowe has scored goals at this level.

What I've seen of Cullen from some late cameos he's got everything apart from hold-up play. He's got composure in front of goal, and he's got natural insticts. He is mobile and he puts himself in good positions in opposition box. Fingers crossed. Now it's up to Cooper, but I don't think he's got guts for experiments. If I was Swansea manager, I would immediately bench Woodman and play Benda instead. I would give a run of games to Cullen, Dhanda and Garrick.
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
On the cynical side ... a broken clock is right twice a day ... or perhaps 1 game per season.

I'd still like Cullen to be given the same run of games that Lowe has received. I think we'd end up with a better asset at the end of the day.
 
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