CroJack's Corner

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
Some thoughts about our poor defensive 'performance' against Huddersfield.


The only player who really cared was Jay Fulton.
 
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CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
I have compiled some performance data for you.

Ayew-Lowe-PerformanceCompared.jpg
Lowe has been overperforming when it comes to expected goals/goals scored ratio. Ayew is exactly matching his expected goals numbers.
Lowe beats Ayew at shot accuracy, shot conversion rate and tackle success.

Lowe also takes a lot of beating. So far he has been fouled 60 times.

I am shocked to see that Lowe has won so low % of aerial duels and made only 5 defensive clearances.
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
For a one trick pony Lowe should be scoring more goals and creating for others around the box. One trick meaning his defensive contributions are limited - compared to those of Ayew - and he doesn't create anything for anybody else. Ayew contributes to defending at corners, tracks back, works deeper for the ball.

There are some significant gaps in output between the pair of them. For a pair of forwards that have been playing together consistently since the start of the season, they don't appear to collaborate at all on the field. There are two assists between them in countless hours of football, and I would be surprised if Ayew's assists actually contributed to a Lowe goal. What's the matter .... don't they ever talk ... don't they like each other? Chalk and cheese have more in common ... at least they both begin with the letter "c". One would think that the two of them would work out some game plan for each game as to who is going to do what, where and when to disrupt the defenders. One would think by now that they would have some semblance of understanding where to go in certain situations and where to find each other. FFS, if Song and Kane can do it, why can't these two.

Frankly, we are getting more offensive punch from our wing backs. Roberts' finish against Stoke was sublime (as was Fulton's a few weeks ago btw). And Roberts attacks crosses and scores headed goals like a true #9. You could easily make the mistake that he is a WB converted from a #9. I don't know for sure, but I'd bet money that Roberts' 4 goals are all coming from crosses from his opposite WB, not lay offs or passes from our two forwards.

It's a bizarre situation. Roberts is showing our forwards how to attack the box and how to finish. I'd like to see Roberts' numbers along side those of Lowe and Ayew.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
@Yankee_Jack

For a one trick pony Lowe should be scoring more goals and creating for others around the box.
Me thinks the others should be creating more for Lowe. Lowe has scored 1 goal more than expected. When you look at the expected assists then neither Ayew nor Lowe are creating much. And that's not a big surprise to me.

Let me explain.

We don't attack through the middle and our midfielders don't provide through balls to our two forwards. This is not how Swansea attack under Steve Cooper. We defend and attack in triangles.

The whole idea behind Cooper's defensive tactics is very simple. The two formations we have played this season form a pyramid which forces opposition to attack us down the wings. Then we trap opposition wingers into a defensive triangle, on one side with Guehi-Bidwell-Grimes, and on the other with Roberts-Smith-Cabango. We simply force opposition to cross the ball, which we either block or let it to our other two centre-backs and Fulton who then clear it.

Screenshot 2021-03-05 at 00.17.38.png

So far so good.

When we attack we do exactly the same: we attack in triangles. Our attacking triangles depend on formation we play. If we play with Dhanda as ATM then Dhanda forms triangles on both wings, he simply runs from side to side. If we play flat three in the midfield, then it's Grimes-Bidwell-Lowe on one side, and Smith-Roberts-Ayew on the other. It looks like this:

Attacking Triangles.jpg
The idea behind these attacking triangles is to put in a cross for the trio on the opposite side or earn a corner-kick. We have seen many times this season our wing-backs attacking the far post. From time to time Fulton runs into the opposition box to create overload. Sometimes Ayew and Lowe cut inside with the ball and try to shoot. But our main attacking weapon is crossing.

The main problem with this approach is: a) while we are creating attacking triangles the opposition have time to regroup, b) one of our two forwards is always missing in the opposition box, and c) Lowe and Ayew are far away from each other.

Why am I telling you all of this? Because there is a reason why Lowe and Ayew don't feed each other and don't have many assists. Our wing-backs have more assists than all our other players together. That's how we play. That's Steve Cooper's style of play. A rigid defence and crossing.

So, please, don't blame Lowe for something that's not his fault. It's Cooper's fault.

When Hourihane arrived we changed our formation to a more adventurous 3-1-4-2. And more less we have played it since. This formation gives us much more flexibility in the attack, but it requires a) a defensive discipline from our two attacking midfielders, and b) a close contact between our back three with the rest of the team. It means that when we attack our back line must be high up the pitch. No gaps are allowed. We saw during the Bristol game how dominant we can be and how many chances we can create. This is how it looks like:

3-1-4-2.jpg

We have never had as high passing accuracy under Steve Cooper as we had against Bristol City. I quite like this formation, but the personel must be right and we have to perfect it. There have been too many ups and downs recently for different reasons. Mostly sloppy passes into dangerous aerias and defensive errors. Since we started playing this formation our midfielders scored 6 goals. Hourihane 4, Grimes 1 and Fulton 1. Suddenly, we are not a team who only puts in crosses, but a team who can score from outside the box, from free-kicks, and create many chances (of course, when play like we did against Bristol, and keep the ball on the ground).

Lowe doesn't create anything for anybody else.
Yes, he does. He passes the ball to Bidwell who then puts in crosses. It's same with Ayew who passes the ball to Roberts who puts in crosses. Once again, that's Steve Cooper's style of play.

What's the matter .... don't they (Lowe and Ayew) ever talk ... don't they like each other?
Yes, they do 🤗.

Jamal and Andre Hugging.jpg
And one last thing. Now I understand why Lowe isn't in our box when we defend corner-kicks. He has orders to stay out of the box in case we counter-attack.
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Clear as mud ... seriously I understand the logic of it, but is this rigidity (if that’s the right term) going to fly against teams that suss it out and smarter / better teams in the Prem. Seems to me that Bristol and Huddersfield and Brentford had solutions. We don’t play hoof ball by any stretch but is it dynamic enough to break down even mediocre opposition that organizes well.

Also, is Lowe making a pass to Bidwell, in a triangle, who puts in a cross really “assisting”.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
but is this rigidity (if that’s the right term) going to fly against teams that suss it out and smarter / better teams in the Prem.
No. The only way we can do something in the Premier League (if we are promoted) is to add pace up front, massively improve our passing accuracy and pressing. We need a modern striker who's got pace and technical ability. Think Vardy. We need wingers with the same qualities.

With other words, we need to have much better quality in the squad and be more flexible.

As for the Huddersfield game, we pushed too high without having a connection between our back line and front six. We had a huge gap in the midfield. We lack pace in our squad so we can't track back properly when we are caught high up the pitch. But that's not a huge problem in the Championship. We corrected it against Bristol. As for the Brentford game, well, they scored first when Naughton was sent off.

"We don’t play hoof ball by any stretch..."

We have played hoof ball for the vast majority of this season. Only recently we started to play more from the back.

"...but is it dynamic enough to break down even mediocre opposition that organizes well."

3-5-2 is not dynamic enough unless you have one or two big strikers like Llorente who can score from headers.
Ayew can jump but he needs pinpoint crosses to score. Lowe is a big lad, but he is not a targetman. He waits for crosses, he doesn't attack them.

3-1-4-1 is much more flexible. Hourihane and Dhanda can shoot and provide through balls to Ayew, Lowe, Roberts and Manning/Bidwell. They can run into opposition box as well.

We definitelly need someone better than Lowe up front. Unfortunally, Cullen and Morris have got long term injuries, Cooper is reluctant to play Whittaker, and Arriola is not match fit.
For now Lowe is our best option, and I am sure he'll score if we create enough chances for him.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
Passing accuracy catastrophy:

Only 6 games this season 80+ % pass accuracy
21 games this season -70 % pass accuracy
28 games this season under 80 % pass accuracy
And 7 % linear decline throughout the season.
Absolute negative record against Barnsley 39 %.

Leon and Curt should be ashamed!

PassAccuracy.jpg

PassAccHome.jpg

PassAccAway.jpg
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The great irony in the passing charts is that we lost both games (Bristol and Huddersfield) where we had two of our higher ratings.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
The great irony in the passing charts is that we lost both games (Bristol and Huddersfield) where we had two of our higher ratings.
Yes, but there are different reasons why we lost these games. We lost Bristol game because of defensive errors (two of them Woodman's), and we lost Huddersfield game because of disjointed midfield and back line.
 

CroJack

Data Analyst
Staff member
We get the key thing right and trip up on others
The question is why has Cooper abandoned the winning formula and replaced it with a dross? We definitelly played the best game of the season against Bristol in terms of possession, passing accuracy, pass & move, and number of chances created. Is he blind?
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack ... has all of the right players in the right roles.

I would swap Fulton and Grimes so that Grimes can pivot and play in front of G & C when we're attacking so that we morph into a 3-4-3.

But do we have to stick with Woody. He is proving more fragile every week. What I wouldn't give for a Dai Davies type.
 
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