Are we spoiled?

CroJack

Key Player
I've just watched all extended highlights of the first Championship round and calculated expected goals for each game. And guess what? When it comes to chances Rotherham v Swansea game was the most entertaining game. Most chances created and most shots on target in Rotherham v Swansea game. Here are the xGoals For, xGoals Against, xPoints, Shots For, Shots Against, Shots On Target For and Against tables I've just made and I hope you'll like them.


xGoals.jpg
xPoints.jpg
xGoals Against.jpg
Shots For.jpg
Shots Against.jpg
 
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CroJack

Key Player
Interestingly, we didn't concede many shots, but Rotherham somehow managed to have 8 out of 9 shots on target.
Watford, Burnley, Middlesbrough, and WBA look strong, Norwich probably had a day off, Birmingham and Millwall will be scoring from set-pieces...
Realistically, we have a chance to finish in the play-off places.


P.S. Cardiff scored a lucky goal to beat Norwich. Wigan probably hold a world record in ineffectivity - 0.20 xGoals from 20 shots :eek:
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Cabango and Allen should add strength and stability defensively and in midfield.

from this and previous analysis Martin has to be brutal with Obafemi and if the guy is not getting it done, then he's pulled by 60' and Cullen is inserted; or if Obafemi continues to be sub par then Cullen has to be given a chance to start.

We have a cup match midweek - I hope Cullen, Allen, O/Cooper, Congreve, and others get a chance to play and show their worth.
 

CroJack

Key Player
@Yankee_Jack

Does Martin have balls to play this line-up?
This is the most balanced line-up we have imho.
Deadly attack, excellent midfield, and a rock-solid defence.

Team2.jpg

Bench: Benda, Naughton, Manning, Lati, O.Cooper, Congreve, Cullen​
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack ... is that a data driven line-up. I imagine that from you it is!

Some thoughts:
  • Benda for Fisher - asking for rain in the dessert but I am ever hopeful
  • Leaving out Naughton is ballsy.
  • I would swap Grimes and Fulton - but I would expect the GAF trio to rotate at will.
  • I would have Congreve ahead of Paterson ... but that's me.
  • I like N'tcham in the line-up.
  • You might be expecting too much defensively from Paterson and N'tcham especially out wide. They could get exploited badly. 🤷‍♂️
 

CroJack

Key Player
Benda for Fisher
Agreed, but I don't have Benda in that line-up because Martin won't choose him as No. 1 goalkeeper. The good news is Fisher is improving. It seems he has more confidence than last season.

Leaving out Naughton is ballsy
I rate Wood. It seems we have a real gem there, and I want Cabango in the middle of the back three. I don't think we would've conceded to Rotherham had Cabango been there instead of Naughton.

I would swap Grimes and Fulton
Nope. Fulton is needed up front. He can score, he is good in the air.
Grimes can score only from distance and only once from 35678 shots. He is better in the defensive midfield.

I would have Congreve ahead of Paterson ... but that's me.
Yeah, that's you. Why not Congreve for Ntcham?

You might be expecting too much defensively from Paterson and N'tcham especially out wide. They could get exploited badly.
That's a risk, but Fulton and Allen can drop down to help Darling, Cabango and Wood. Also, with the above line-up we don't need to push our back-line so high. Cabango will be in the middle of the back three to defend crosses, Wood has a lot of pace, Darling is not too slow either.
But we'll always be vulnerable to counter-attacking football. We have to accept that as long as we play possession based football.
 
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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Why not Congreve for Ntcham? Ntcham may be flattering to deceive, but I see more from him than Paterson ... again my bias perhaps. Although having Congreve on the right side - where he performed well in preseason - certainly gives the opportunity to come inside and fire his left foot shot.

Paterson - Piroe - Congreve ... would work just as well for me. Although I'm not unhappy with P-P-N. If there's long term upside to be had then it rests with Nthcam (perhaps) and Congreve definitely and I'm more inclined to give that a chance to blossom. Only game time can do that.
 

KVetch

Key Player
I don't know how Ntcham would perform in a full 90. I'd like to see Oli Cooper for at least 30 minutes. I don't know what we have with Wood yet. We're desperately thin in defense now.
 

KVetch

Key Player
I have a dreading sense Piroe is shipped on deadline day with Obafemi and Cullen having to make up for his goals.
 

CroJack

Key Player
We're desperately thin in defense now.
When Ben is back we'll be ok if he plays in the middle of the back three. If Martin pushes him high and wide we'll be in trouble.
I am curious, why do you think a combo of Darling, Cabango and Wood with Naughton, Latibeaudiere and Brandon Cooper as subs is a desperately thin defence?
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
I can see an added bonus of @CroJack's 3-back system: Naughton. He can be used to replace Paterson / Ntcham when we need to bolster one side defensively if we have a lead. We can bring him on and play him in midfield alongside Grimes, if we have a lead, or in place of one of GAF to give one of them a game off during the 2-game a week stretches. In other words, Naughton now becomes this technically solid, prem-level utility player that we can slot into the breach as an when we need. It will prolong his career if he can adapt and make it his own - not that he cannot command a starting place now - but if we're not playing traditional WBs then he doesn't have a starting role.
 
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