6 games left. Here's the table:
6th is the only playoff spot realistically up for grabs.
Swans are 4 points off, as are Preston North End, every team has played the same number of games.
PNE have dreadful recent form and are dive-bombing, while Blackburn and Millwall have an extra point to find, so lets count those teams out for the sake of simplicity.
Let's consider Cardiff, Derby and Swansea are in a three-horse race for 6th.
Swansea's last 6 fixtures:
H Sheff Wed (12th, dodgy recent form)
A Birmingham (17th, poor recent form)
H Leeds (1st, reasonable form)
A Nottm Forest (4th, reasonable form)
H Bristol City (12th, poor form)
A Reading (16th, poor form)
I figure 12 points from these 6 games might be enough. Leeds and Nottm Forest are the obvious tough fixtures, but if Swansea are serious about making a playoff push, they have to beat the rest, who have almost nothing to play for. Also, none of these teams are showing good form (neither are Swansea of course).
Cardiff's last 6 fixtures:
A Bristol City (12th, poor form)
H Blackburn (10th, poor form)
A Fulham (5th, so-so form)
H Derby (7th, excellent form)
A Boro (20th, so-so form)
H Hull (22nd, terrible form)
If I'm Cardiff, I want 12 points from these 6 games too, especially given Derby are on a hot streak. However, Fulham will be tough and the Derby match is a 6-pointer which can help Swansea - any winner will set the loser back and allow an opening for the Swans, a draw puts both teams back and still leaves an opening for the Swans. Also, the games against Boro and Hull look easy but are trap games - both Boro and Hull have one game in hand at the time of writing, and both are scrapping to avoid relegation. The Boro game is a double-trap game for Cardiff because of the Warnock factor.
Derby's last 6 fixtures:
H Nottm Forest (4th, reasonable form)
A West Brom (2nd, poor form)
H Brentford (3rd, excellent form)
A Cardiff (6th, good form)
H Leeds (1st, reasonable form)
A Birmingham (17th, poor form)
This is where it gets really interesting. Derby might be on fire at the moment, but five of their remaining 6 games are against top-6 teams, including the 6-pointer with Cardiff. They also face the greatest number of in-form teams, and the single "easy" match v Birmingham might be a dead rubber by the time it rolls around.
I know the Swans draw v Millwall felt like a season-ender after the loss to Luton, but there's still a workable chance to make the playoffs. Derby are toast - sure, they've hit form, but they'll struggle to come away from that run-in with more than, say, 9 or 10 points. The 6-pointer between Cardiff and Derby gives the Swans an edge because it either seriously weakens one of Swans competitors, or semi-seriously weakens both of them. Plus, Swansea easily have the softest run-in - mostly mid-table teams with nothing to play for.
A bit of hwyl from the boys and they could legitimately sneak in, though I think hwyl is in short supply at the moment.
6th is the only playoff spot realistically up for grabs.
Swans are 4 points off, as are Preston North End, every team has played the same number of games.
PNE have dreadful recent form and are dive-bombing, while Blackburn and Millwall have an extra point to find, so lets count those teams out for the sake of simplicity.
Let's consider Cardiff, Derby and Swansea are in a three-horse race for 6th.
Swansea's last 6 fixtures:
H Sheff Wed (12th, dodgy recent form)
A Birmingham (17th, poor recent form)
H Leeds (1st, reasonable form)
A Nottm Forest (4th, reasonable form)
H Bristol City (12th, poor form)
A Reading (16th, poor form)
I figure 12 points from these 6 games might be enough. Leeds and Nottm Forest are the obvious tough fixtures, but if Swansea are serious about making a playoff push, they have to beat the rest, who have almost nothing to play for. Also, none of these teams are showing good form (neither are Swansea of course).
Cardiff's last 6 fixtures:
A Bristol City (12th, poor form)
H Blackburn (10th, poor form)
A Fulham (5th, so-so form)
H Derby (7th, excellent form)
A Boro (20th, so-so form)
H Hull (22nd, terrible form)
If I'm Cardiff, I want 12 points from these 6 games too, especially given Derby are on a hot streak. However, Fulham will be tough and the Derby match is a 6-pointer which can help Swansea - any winner will set the loser back and allow an opening for the Swans, a draw puts both teams back and still leaves an opening for the Swans. Also, the games against Boro and Hull look easy but are trap games - both Boro and Hull have one game in hand at the time of writing, and both are scrapping to avoid relegation. The Boro game is a double-trap game for Cardiff because of the Warnock factor.
Derby's last 6 fixtures:
H Nottm Forest (4th, reasonable form)
A West Brom (2nd, poor form)
H Brentford (3rd, excellent form)
A Cardiff (6th, good form)
H Leeds (1st, reasonable form)
A Birmingham (17th, poor form)
This is where it gets really interesting. Derby might be on fire at the moment, but five of their remaining 6 games are against top-6 teams, including the 6-pointer with Cardiff. They also face the greatest number of in-form teams, and the single "easy" match v Birmingham might be a dead rubber by the time it rolls around.
I know the Swans draw v Millwall felt like a season-ender after the loss to Luton, but there's still a workable chance to make the playoffs. Derby are toast - sure, they've hit form, but they'll struggle to come away from that run-in with more than, say, 9 or 10 points. The 6-pointer between Cardiff and Derby gives the Swans an edge because it either seriously weakens one of Swans competitors, or semi-seriously weakens both of them. Plus, Swansea easily have the softest run-in - mostly mid-table teams with nothing to play for.
A bit of hwyl from the boys and they could legitimately sneak in, though I think hwyl is in short supply at the moment.
