Interesting stats

Behindthegoal

Key Player
Fair point. But if a player lines up on the left, he's a winger. He may not be dedicated but that's his job till told otherwise. (That didn't take long last night)
 

CroJack

Key Player
After 14 games in season 2018/19, Swansea are now the best passing side in the Championship. The Swans are the only team who has 80+ % passing accuracy and are top of the league for short passes per game. At the same time, the Swans play fewest long balls per game, only 60.

Together with Leeds, the Swans still have joint-second best defence in the Championship.

Swansea are not rock-bottom for shots per game anymore. There has been improvement here and now we average 11,3 shots per game, 19th place.

Swansea are now joint-fifth for tackles per game, we have become a more physical team.

By averaging 8,4 fouls per game Swansea are still the most fair-play team in the Championship.

Swansea are now forth for successful dribbles per game. We average 7,7 dribbles per game.

Swansea are 12th for the most fouled teams.

Swansea are the only team in the Championship that hasn't scored from a set-piece yet.
 

CroJack

Key Player
As you already know, Matt Grimes leads the Championship in successful forward passes completed and he is also third-best in the Championship at progressive passing.

Progressive passing can be best described as getting the ball forward to good offensive areas from midfield. Players who are best at progressive passing are likely to be the team’s deepest lying playmaker and the ones who often receive the ball first from the defence in linking the play to the forward areas.

What is interesting here is that Matt Grimes beats Ryan Woods in almost every stats.

Tackles per game:

Grimes 2,1 - Woods 0,8

Clearances:

Grimes 1,5 - Woods 0,8

Shots:

Grimes 0,8 - Woods 0,1

Key passes:

Grimes 0,6 - Woods 0,4

Crosses:

Grimes 0,9 - Woods 0,0

Interceptions:

Grimes 0,8 - Woods 0,8

Passing accuracy:

Grimes 82,7 - Woods 85,7

Long balls:

Grimes 3,2 - Woods 4,9
 

CroJack

Key Player
Tough next three fixtures for the Swans. The bad news is that our opponents are all top six clubs. The good news is that the Swans have a pretty good record against the current top seven clubs. Played four of them, W 1 D 3 L 0.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
Yes, tough but not impossible, luckily we have imo the two most difficult at home, with Norwich on a roll atm. WBA & Derby have only won one game more than us, and we're all aware we've thrown a couple of results away recently. WBA being the heavy scorers, but tend to leak goals also. Derby again not brilliant at the back. Hopefully Wilf & Montero will have some game time, two big assets against weak defences. Gonna stick my neck out and forecast taking 7points from the three.
 

CroJack

Key Player
In a couple of months of senior football Dan James has now scored 2/3 of goals Jefferson Montero has scored in his 8 years of pro football in Europe :eek:.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
But Montero scares the crap out of FBs and doesn't try to do more than necessary ... i.e. skin the back, hit the bye-line, put over the perfect cross. He sticks to his knitting.

Wingers that score goals are nice ... but not everybody can be a Scott Sinclair at this level.
 

CroJack

Key Player
But Montero scares the crap out of FBs and doesn't try to do more than necessary ... i.e. skin the back, hit the bye-line, put over the perfect cross. He sticks to his knitting.
I am afraid that's not enough @Yankee_Jack . Modern wingers and midfielders have to score goals. Even centre-backs and full-backs. Dan James is capable od doing both, I mean putting over the perfect crosses and scoring goals. I wish we had a winger of the same quality on the right flank. What's happened to Asoro? Dyer? An ordinary winger should be able to score 5 goals per season, a really good one 10 goals and an extraordinary one 15+ goals. We can't rely on crosses because a) it's difficult to put the perfect cross, b) it's difficult to score from a cross.

Crosses are overrated in football. The input is high, the outcome extremely little.

Teams in big four leagues require 71.97 open crosses per goal on average. Another aspect is that only 20 percent of all key passes via open crosses have led to goals. In contrast, 45 percent of all key passes via through balls have created successful goal scoring attempts.

The number of open crosses played per game has barely any effect on the shots taken inside the penalty area. It is the challenge of constantly crossing the ball accurately what could make this strategy worthwhile.

The same goes for the correlation between crossing and the shot conversion inside the penalty area. Looking only at the Premier League numbers, we have the case that teams with a higher frequency of crossing have even a lower conversion rate inside the penalty area as well as inside the six yard box.

Don't get me wrong. I am not against crosses, especially not against perfect crosses, but there are other more effective attacking weapons. Best teams always try to create clear-cut chances because it's much, much easier to score a tap-in than a headed goal from a perfect cross when you are under pressure and surrounded by three defenders pushing and elbowing you. You see what I mean? That's why not only wingers but also midfielders have to contribute in creating clear-cut chances and scoring.

The trouble is that the Swans still don't create many clear-cut chances and then we tend to think "If we had Montero on the pitch we would be scoring goals." But that's a regressive thinking. Instead, we have to figure it out how to create more clear-cut chances. High pressing, quick transitions, counter-attacking, triangles, higher passing tempo...for example.
 
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Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
Some plus's for Montero, impossible to be offside from one of his bye-line crosses which allows our attacking players freedom in the box .He draws defenders out of the box., normally two. another plus in the box.Defenders have to play facing their goal. Worth remembering how many Llorente scored with his head from crosses.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Worth remembering how many Llorente scored with his head from crosses
Look at the bigger picture. We almost got relegated that season. And Poch doesn't use Llorente at all at Tottenham because they have better weapons than crosses to Llorente.

As for Montero, he is a one trick pony. I remember when he was found out by the Premier League defenders who started to double-mark him he was totally useless. No, we need wingers who are capable of doing more than one bloody thing, wingers who cut inside and shoot, wingers who can play triangles, wingers who can play through balls. Someone like Sinclair and Pablo Hernandez.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
Look at the bigger picture. We almost got relegated that season. And Poch doesn't use Llorente at all at Tottenham because they have better weapons than crosses to Llorente.

As for Montero, he is a one trick pony. I remember when he was found out by the Premier League defenders who started to double-mark him he was totally useless. No, we need wingers who are capable of doing more than one bloody thing, wingers who cut inside and shoot, wingers who can play triangles, wingers who can play through balls. Someone like Sinclair and Pablo Hernandez.
But Poch obviously bought Llorente on the strength of what he saw at Swansea. Of course he never bought him as a constant first team player, but obviously saw him as a possible plan B player.
Montero, a one trick pony that keeps that one trick working well. drawing defenders and getting crosses in. As you say the Premiership had to double mark him, surely getting two defenders out of the box by far increases the scoring prospect. The fact that we don't have the finishing players in the box is more the problem.
 

CroJack

Key Player
1. Relegation or promotion?

After having played 26 games Swans are closer to the automatic promotion places than to the relegation places.

Norwich in second have 49 points, Swansea 36 points, and Bolton who are 22nd in the league table have 22 points.

2. Goalscoring problems? Not anymore.

In the last 17 games Swansea have scored 28 goals, which is 1,65 goals per game. Scoring at this rate would result in 76 goals over the course of a season, which is pretty good. In the last 6 games Swansea have scored 13 goals, which is 2,2 goals per game. Scoring at this rate would result in 101 goals over the course of a season, which is extraordinary.

A previously goal-shy Swansea are now 9th for the most goals scored in the Championship.

3. Defensive troubles? Yes.

In the first 9 games this season, Swansea have conceded 6 goals, and one of these goals was that offside goal Stoke scored against us. That's exactly 0,66 goals per game. Conceding at this rate would result in 30 goals over the course of a season, which is excellent.

In the last 17 games Swansea have conceded 25 goals, 1,47 goals per game, which is more than double than in the first 9 games. Conceding at this rate would result in 68 goals over the course of a season, which is bad.

In the last 6 games Swansea have conceded 10 goals, 1,66 goals per game. Conceding at this rate would result in 76 goals over the course of a season, which is terrible.

Interestingly enough, Swansea still have the joint-fourth best defence in the Championship.

We have to fix our defence, be better at game management, raise our concentration levels and erradicate stupid defensive errors.

4. All or nothing? Yes.

Swansea are joint-sixth for the most wins, but also joint-fifth for the most defeats. The outcome of the Swans' last 15 games have either been a win or a loss , we haven't had any draws.

5. Passing kings?

With 81,8 % average passing accuracy, we are still the best passing side in the Championship.

6. Goalscoring burden?

13 different players have scored goals for Swansea this season. That's good and that's how it should be. What is not good is that our dedicated wingers still don't score as many goals as they should score. James (1), Asoro, McKay (1), Routledge (2), Dyer and Montero have only scored 4 goals between them. Not good enough when you play up front.

7. Most dangerous Swansea players in front of goal as at 31 December 2018 (the win against Reading is not included):

2018-12-31-Swansea.png

8. Potter is rotating his squad like crazy. Pochetino, Guardiola and Klopp are doing the same thing.

These tables are really an interesting read. Enjoy.

CH-2018-12-30.png

PL-2018-12-30.png

It's going to be interesting to see who is right. The teams who play the same players game in and game out, or the teams who rotate a lot?

Will teams like Birmingham, Sheffield United, Leeds, Norwich and QPR pay the price for not rotating enough in the first half of the season? Will Wolves, Watford and Crystal Palace start to lose their games because of fatigue?
 
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ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Excellent stuff, CJ. Too late to read it in detail tonight but look forward to doing so tomorrow.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The teams that don’t rotate probably don’t have the depth of squad to do it, or have been handcufffed by injuries and suspensions. It would be interesting to see what drives non-rotation: steadfast best XI, limited resources or other problems.
 

KVetch

Key Player
In most games the passing looks more creative and more attacking than last year. A team doesn't need the big stars if they have good tactics and play less like individuals and more like a team. I'm fine giving young guys like Rodon and Roberts chances because they are young and hungry. That is by no means a pledge to be cheap during open transfers though. I'm afraid we'll see starting players get shipped off while nothing comes in again.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Impressive trend:

Swans have scored 9 goals in their last 3 games, 16 goals in their last 7 ganes, and 13 goals in their last 6 Championship games.

I see these stats as a proof that the style of play and quality of the manager is more important than the quality of the players.
 
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