FORUM PREDICTION GAME

I'm not participating in this season's Forum Prediction League, but this might be interesting to you. As you all know xG (expected goals) is an important metric in football statistics for calculating quality chances one team creates. Every week there are updated tables with PL teams current league position, xPTS (expected points position), xG (expected goals) teams should have scored, and xGA (expected goals against) teams should have conceded. Here are updated tables.

Current league position, goals scored and goals conceded

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xPTS league position (how many points they should have earned )

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xG (how many goals they should have scored)

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xGA (how many goals they should have conceded)

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As expected, Manchester City top the xPTS table.

What is interesting here is that some PL teams have been pretty lucky and some other unlucky.

West Ham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth should have been in bottom six, and not in top ten. Chelsea and Man United should have been in top four, Southampton and Everton in top ten. Arsenal should have been in 12th place, and Watford in 14th.

Of course, creating quality chances doesn't garantee you success, you have to have quality strikers to convert chances you create, but still it's a good indicator of one team's quality. Also, if you prevent opposition to create many chances against you but your defence sucks, then you'll concede from every chance they create.

When we look at the xG table it's surprising that Southampton are fifth-best and Leicester fourth-worst for chances created. So how can we explain their league positions? Well, if we look at the xGA table then we can see that Leicester have second-best defence in the PL. They defend well and are clinical up front (Vardy has been on fire under Rodgers). Southampton have mid-table defence but are ineffective in front of goal.

Arsenal, Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford are worst defensively. They all create many chances, but the first three will start losing points more regularly if they don't fix their defensive problems.

Having xG in mind how would this week's predictions look like?

Brighton 1:2 Tottenham
Burnley 1:1 Everton
Liverpool 2:1 Leicester
Norwich 1:1 Aston Villa
Watford 1:1 Sheffield United
West Ham 2:1 Crystal Palace
Manchester City 3:1 Wolves
Southampton 2:3 Chelsea
Arsenal 2:2 Bournemouth
Newcaste United 0:2 Manchester United


 
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I'm not participating in this season's Forum Prediction League, but this might be interesting to you. As you all know xG (expected goals) is an important metric in football statistics for calculating quality chances one team creates. Every week there are updated tables with PL teams current league position, xPTS (expected points position), xG (expected goals) teams should have scored, and xGA (expected goals against) teams should have conceded. Here are updated tables.

Current league position, goals scored and goals conceded

View attachment 971

xPTS league position (how many points they should have earned )

View attachment 972

xG (how many goals they should have scored)

View attachment 973

xGA (how many goals they should have conceded)

View attachment 974
As expected, Manchester City top the xPTS table.

What is interesting here is that some PL teams have been pretty lucky and some other unlucky.

West Ham, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth should have been in bottom six, and not in top ten. Chelsea and Man United should have been in top four, Southampton and Everton in top ten. Arsenal should have been in 12th place, and Watford in 14th.

Of course, creating quality chances doesn't garantee you success, you have to have quality strikers to convert chances you create, but still it's a good indicator of one team's quality. Also, if you prevent opposition to create many chances against you but your defence sucks, then you'll concede from every chance they create.

When we look at the xG table it's surprising that Southampton are fifth-best and Leicester fourth-worst for chances created. So how can we explain their league positions? Well, if we look at the xGA table then we can see that Leicester have second-best defence in the PL. They defend well and are clinical up front (Vardy has been on fire under Rodgers). Southampton have mid-table defence but are ineffective in front of goal.

Arsenal, Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford are worst defensively. They all create many chances, but the first three will start losing points more regularly if they don't fix their defensive problems.

Having xG in mind how would this week's predictions look like?

Brighton 1:2 Tottenham
Burnley 1:1 Everton
Liverpool 2:1 Leicester
Norwich 1:1 Aston Villa
Watford 1:1 Sheffield United
West Ham 2:1 Crystal Palace
Manchester City 3:1 Wolves
Southampton 2:3 Chelsea
Arsenal 2:2 Bournemouth
Newcaste United 0:2 Manchester United


Nah....I will stick to my pin!
 
Let's see how CJ gets on, then we can work on a plan to pauperise the bookies!!
Both betting sindicates and bookies use xG to make their predictions. Brighton's owner has made hundreds of millions pounds on betting by using advanced analytical tools.

Of course, I'm not stupid to think that xG are some kind the holy grail when it comes to predictions. It's an important metric but there are many other aspects of football that make football almost unpredictable. Injuries, red cards, a day off, wrong tactics, players who want to get rid of the manager, deflected shots, own goals, lack of concentration which leads to defensive errors, goalkeeper howlers...you name it. That's why we love football.

Liverpool can lose to Leicester, City can lose to Wolves, United can lose to Newcastle, and so on, but we can't deny that teams who produce many chances, and don't allow opposition to create many chances against them, have better chance to win football games.
 

Jackflash

Midfield General
Staff member
Once again my predictions have not been registered,it now owes me two weeks predictions, I think BTG had the same problem last week.
 

ivoralljack

Grizzled Veteran
Staff member
Just 6 points for me this week which leaves me in second place with 63 points behind @Borini who's setting a cracking pace with 68. In third place we have @Victoria Swan with 60 points and we three have opened up a bit of a gap from @The Blobster on 45 points. Plenty of time left in the season for a lot to change.

PS: @CroJack your selections would have got you 8 points, which is two better than I managed! :)
 
PS: @CroJack your selections would have got you 8 points, which is two better than I managed! :)
It is a misunderstanding that the predictions made in my previous post were my predictions. They are predictions according to the expected goals model. When I make predictions I always give a slight advantage to home teams and I look at the current form. I would have given 1:0 win to Burnley against Everton, and I would have given a win to Arsenal against Bournemouth. Also, I was sure Chelsea were going to win. They play excellent football and are underrated.

The only result I would have predicted exactly as expected goals model was Liverpool 2:1 Leicester.

But Spurs to lose 3:0 to Brighton, Manchester City to lose 0:2 to Wolves at home turf, and Norwich to lose 1:5 to Villa? Wow.
 
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