Expected Goals & Points - Round 2

[CroJack]

Blackburn's xGoals are inflated. In their last game, a Rotherham player was sent off early in the second half, giving Blackburn plenty of time to create many high quality chances and earn huge 7.6 xGoals.

11 clubs have created more than 2+ xGs per game, which is excellent and a testament to the competitiveness of the Championship this year.






Watford, Bristol, Middlesbrough and Millwall have the best defences so far. If Darling hadn't given away a penalty, we would have been in the top four.



This table is important. It shows if there is a balance between attack and defence. It doesn't matter if you score many if you at the same tome concede many. Leicester show early signs of defensive weakness.

 

[CroJack]

I am surprised that Swansea are the only team to deserve all six points from their opening two games. We didn't play well, but we created a lot of good chances.

Unlucky teams: Swansea, Leeds, Sunderland & Hudersfield.

Lucky teams: Birmingham, Preston, Millwall & QPR.

Extremely lucky: Leicester. They should've lost both games, but somehow earned six points.

 

[ivoralljack]

Fantastic analysis again, CJ. Thanks.

 

[CroJack]

I see there aren't many comments on the charts/tables I've posted here. Yes, I know it seems highly unlikely that we are so high up despite our poor performances in the first two games. But it's true.

Here are the xG tables from the Soccerment.com site and they look pretty much like mine - the Swans are among the best teams at creating quality chances, but also at not conceding quality chances. Even using the statistical model (which I think is not accurate enough) we look good.

 

[Behindthegoal]

Duff said something similar so he knows what to do.
What were you doing in the early hours CJ? Late night or insomnia?

 

[CroJack]

What were you doing in the early hours CJ? Late night or insomnia?

Friday night

 

[ivoralljack]

I'm a night owl as well.