Championship Week 5 - Expected Goals (for and against), and Expected League Position

[CroJack]

Surprise, surprise...despite the loss to Huddersfield, the Swans are currently the best performing team in the Championship when it comes to creating and conceding quality chances.

Here is the real league table:



Expected Goals For Table:



Expected Goals Against Table:



Expected Goals Difference Table:



Expected League Position Table:




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[CroJack]

Current League Table vs Expected League Position Table:

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[CroJack]

When we look at these tables we can explain our loss to Huddersfield. They are 7th for quality chances created. So if you give them time and space they'll create chances against you. They are not a bad team going forward. But, they are one of the worst teams in the Championship when it comes to Expected Goals Against. They allow many quality chances against, just like they did against the Swans. Unfortunatelly, we didn't convert these chances, and that's our own fault.

Reading are massively overperforming. They have the best defence in the Championship (Swans are second best), but they don't create many chances. Their forwards must be extremely clinical. Not sustainable in the long run.

Brentford, Stoke, Blackburn, QPR, Preston, Forest, and Barnsley are underperforming. I expect them to climb up the table.

Bristol, Bournemouth, Watford, Millwall, Luton, Cardiff and Birmingham amongst the teams who are overperforming.

 

[Yankee_Jack]

Excellent analysis. We screwed up badly on Sat against Huddersfield.

 

[Borini]

Excellent analysis. We screwed up badly on Sat against Huddersfield.

Now that is expert analysis. Concise and correct.

 

[Behindthegoal]

I’ve got 6/4 odds for us tonight. I think that’s generous and thankfully CJ’s tables agree with me.