Championship Week 4 - xG, xGA & xPTS

CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
I based these calculations on Infogol expected goals. Infogol is the only site to post expected goals immediatelly after the Championship games are finished, so credit goes to them for expected goals numbers.

Important:

I disagree with the stats wizzards on how expected goals are calculated in their statistical models. I think we shouldn't be using statistics, but technology to do that. Until a proper technology is in place inside football stadiums we should use expected goals more as a compass than exact data.
 
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Behindthegoal

Behindthegoal

Key Player
MEGO. I’m always baffled by stats, but thank you for your service CJ.
Am I right, is it Swansea only whose table position correlates with the figures?
 
Yankee_Jack

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The take away from the Expected Points table is that the Swans are where they are “expected” to be, while Bristol, Reading and Bournemouth are over achieving. Applying the principle of reversion to the mean these three clubs should fall away after the international break. And, as long as Andy Pandy doesn’t throttle what we’re doing defensively or offensively for that matter during the international break like he did last season, we should continue and stay there abouts.
 
CroJack

CroJack

Key Player
Behindthegoal said:
Thank you @Yankee_Jack , that answers my poorly phrased question. By the same token Brentford and Blackburn will zoom up the table to join us.
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It depends. Some of the clubs create many chances, but concede a lot as well. Some don't create much, but have a good defence. Actually, the Swans are the most balanced team in the Championship right now. We are third for chances created and we have the best defence. Blackburn look good as well. As for Brentford, they play excellent attacking football, but also allow double as many chances against as the Swans. It's still too early, but three at the back is definitely a formation that suits us.
 
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KVetch

KVetch

Key Player
Yankee_Jack said:
The take away from the Expected Points table is that the Swans are where they are “expected” to be, while Bristol, Reading and Bournemouth are over achieving. Applying the principle of reversion to the mean these three clubs should fall away after the international break. And, as long as Andy Pandy doesn’t throttle what we’re doing defensively or offensively for that matter during the international break like he did last season, we should continue and stay there abouts.
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Not only Andy to worry about but greedy owners selling our best players. Guehi and Cabango will have to do the job without Rodon. God forbid Ayew goes next.
 
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