Championship Round 7 - xGoals & xPoints

CroJack

Key Player

Still creating chances...

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...and still impotent in front of goal

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It's official now, Swansea are the worst Championship team when it comes to giving chances away.
Playing from the back...🤡🤡🤡


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And joint-third worst at conceding goals for real

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Mediocre when it comes to xPoints
Should have won 3 and lost 4


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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
The writing is on the wall now. Any with weak eyesight will be able to see it by the end of September. Although I was encouraged by Martin's use of players against Stoke except for the substitutions which did us no favors.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Although I was encouraged by Martin's use of players against Stoke except for the substitutions which did us no favors.
There were some positive signs, and had we won the Rotherham and Millwall matches we would be happy now with that 1 point away at Stoke.
First of all, we played with more intensity and we played a much more direct football than we usually do. Second, Oli Cooper was the player who had this forward drive that we have missed so much.

But, but, but...we gave away so many chances that Stoke managed to amass 4.70 expected goals!!! Enough to score 4 goals. We created chances for 2.10 expected goals. So, the fair result was Stoke 4:2 Swansea. The truth is we created all these chances for Stoke by being sloppy. The same old story.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
@CroJack … are you able to determine when during the game that Stoke’s X goals were distributed. Were they predominantly post subs or evenly distributed ?
 

CroJack

Key Player
Swansea pink
Stoke blue

(x5 -> you have to divide it with 5 to get the real number,
/4 and /2 -> you have to multiply by 4 or 2 to get the real numer)


It's interesting that we had 9 quality shots out of 10 total shots.
Another interesting thing was our defensive resilience. I think we blocked more shots and crosses
against Stoke than in all our other games this season.

(Quality shots are shots on target that require either a save or active block. Not all shots
on target are quality shots, e.g. shots that are easily saved or shots that hit a passive defender)


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Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Based on the comparison of the two envelopes, Stoke outplayed us, clearly the stronger team, well deserved of the point if not more.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Based on the comparison of the two envelopes, Stoke outplayed us, clearly the stronger team, well deserved of the point if not more.
They deserved to win 4:2.
Stoke 4.80 xGoals, Swansea 2.10 xGoals.

They created all those chances from our stupid mistakes, so I can't say they outplayed us.
 

Yankee_Jack

Key Player
Looks like they were superior to us in all metrics bar two: Shots on Target, Successful Tackles. In some metrics it wasn't even close.
 

CroJack

Key Player
Looks like they were superior to us in all metrics bar two: Shots on Target, Successful Tackles.
Quality shots and duels won as well. We were even in these two metrics.

And even though they were superior in the vast majority of metrics they didn't outplay us. We gifted them easy chances, we gifted them opportunities to shoot, we gifted them corner-kicks...it's not like they created everything by playing better than us using a superior style of play.
 
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CroJack

Key Player
@CroJack … are you able to determine when during the game that Stoke’s X goals were distributed. Were they predominantly post subs or evenly distributed ?
Post-sub exactly 2.00 xGoals for Stoke, but these chances are NOT the fault of the subs.

Here is the post-sub action:

69:00 Paterson coming on for Fulton, and Ntcham for Cooper

70:50 - Sorinola first intercepts a Stoke pass just to get dispossessed immediately after, Stoke start a counter-attack, Allan clears the Stoke cross

71:32 Naughton loses the ball (gets dispossessed) on the right side in our own third, Stoke counter-attacks, Delap sends the ball to Campbell on the left flank who then sends a low cross to Delap. Delap shoots from 11 yards out, Grimes makes a block and the ball goes over the crossbar. 0.30 xG. The ball from the corner puts us under pressure but Allen makes a clearance.

73:26 Ntcham gets dispossessed in the middle of the pitch and Stoke counter-attack, but Naughton intercepts the ball

74:36 Ntcham makes a sloppy pass in the Stoke half and Stoke counter-attack, Manning intercepts their pass

75:14 Sorinola makes an unnecessary clearance and gives away a throw-in in our own third, Paterson blocks the cross

77:29 Sorinola gives a free-kick away half way inside right channel in our half. Stoke have a free-kick but the ball goes into the Fisher hands. Though, one of the Stoke players was free to get at the end of it.

78:32 Obafemi coming on for Sorinola, Ntcham moves into the right wing-back position, Paterson on the left and Piroe on the righ behind Obafemi.

79:36 Excellent long ball and switch of play by Piroe but Obafemi’s poor touch sends the ball out just inside our half. Stoke’s throw-in. A couple of Stoke crosses easily cleared by the Swansea defence

80:46 Unprovoked Grimes sends the ball out at the half-line and gives sway a throw-in.

81:10 Excellent attack by Swansea through the middle. Piroe finds Obafemi who is in the shooting position but marginally offside.

82:00 - 83:30 Really good play by Stoke ended by a blocked cross. A corner-kick to Stoke.

83:40 Corner-kick. The ball cleared to a Stoke player who takes a first touch shot from 13 yards out. He shoots over the cross-bar. 0.20 xG

85:06 Grimes poor first touch, gives away a throw-in in our half. Stoke attack and put in crosses.

86:36 Swansea in possession. Manning totally unprovoked sends the ball to the Stoke goalkeeper.

87:20 Swansea counter-attack. Excellent opportunity to create something but Obafemi gets dispossessed at the edge of the Stoke box. Now Stoke (counter-)attack down the right side. They put a cross in and a Stoke player, who is totally free, heads the ball wide from 8 yards out. 0.80 xGoals. Great chance. That was a chain of poor defending. First of all, Paterson should’ve fouled the ball carrier who started the attack. A yellow card in the dying minutes of the match means nothing but stops a dangerous attack. Second, Grimes and Manning should’ve blocked the cross but they were jogging. And third, Darling let his man totally alone in our box to have a free header.

88:50 The madness starts with Fisher giving the ball away in our half. Instead of hoofing it into the Stoke half he tries to find Naughton in our own half with a lobbed pass. Madness. The ball is intercepted by Stoke and they counter-attack. The referee gives a free-kick to Stoke for an alleged Naughton’s foul on a Stoke player at the edge of our box. I haven’t seen any foul. Fisher goes out to collect the cross but totally misses the ball. The ball is though cleared to the left side outside of our box where Piroe and Ntcham fail to block another cross (they are jogging). At the far post a Stoke player wins aerial duel against two Swansea players and lays the ball off for his team-mate (Allen’s man) to score from 6 yards out. Of course, Fisher stands there like a statue and doesn’t try to come out and narrow the angle. 0.70 xGoals. So, again a chain of poor defending led to a huge chance to Stoke and a goal.

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So, we can't blame the subs for the Stoke goal, but we could eventually blame Martin for the player-for-player subs and for not strengthening our defence when he knew that Stoke were going to put in many crosses. Why not move Fulton and Ntcham back to defend crosses?
 
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