There has been a lot of criticism lately towards Lowe's "inability" to score goals. Some claim that Lowe misses sitters game after game, which I don't think is a fair criticism. Instead, in my opinion, the criticism of Lowe should be directed towards his decision making in some situations, and towards his lack of creativity.
A couple of days ago I promised to have a look at the quality of chances (and their expected goals values) Lowe has had so far this season. By doing an analysis of each chance he has had, we can see exactly how many goals he could/should have scored. I am also going to calculate xG for all Swansea chances, game for game, and player for player.
Important:
I am going to use both pre-shot and post-shot expected goals values. Pre-shot expected goal value is a quality of chance where a player for some reason doesn't take a shot. Pre-shot expected goal value is important in case we want to judge decision making when it comes to strikers. If a striker constantly chooses not to shoot when there is a good chance to do that, and instead, by taking a couple of touches more than necessary, decreases quality of chances, then we can conclude that he over-complicates things and that his decision making is poor.
I am going to start in revers order, the Middlesbrough game first.
Here is a prime example af a striker whose decison making is poor.
Lowe has an opportunity to take a one-touch shot in a position where his chance has a higher xG (expected goal) value than the following chance.
Instead, he chooses to take a couple of more touches and steps, narrows the angle, and decreases the value of the chance.
Still, his shot is good, and he forces the Middlesbrough keeper to make a save, which creates a much better chance for Roberts.
A couple of days ago I promised to have a look at the quality of chances (and their expected goals values) Lowe has had so far this season. By doing an analysis of each chance he has had, we can see exactly how many goals he could/should have scored. I am also going to calculate xG for all Swansea chances, game for game, and player for player.
Important:
I am going to use both pre-shot and post-shot expected goals values. Pre-shot expected goal value is a quality of chance where a player for some reason doesn't take a shot. Pre-shot expected goal value is important in case we want to judge decision making when it comes to strikers. If a striker constantly chooses not to shoot when there is a good chance to do that, and instead, by taking a couple of touches more than necessary, decreases quality of chances, then we can conclude that he over-complicates things and that his decision making is poor.
I am going to start in revers order, the Middlesbrough game first.
Here is a prime example af a striker whose decison making is poor.
Lowe has an opportunity to take a one-touch shot in a position where his chance has a higher xG (expected goal) value than the following chance.
Instead, he chooses to take a couple of more touches and steps, narrows the angle, and decreases the value of the chance.
Still, his shot is good, and he forces the Middlesbrough keeper to make a save, which creates a much better chance for Roberts.